This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
Mountain West

Northern Illinois

0–7 (0–3 Mountain West). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating-25.0136th of 138
SP+ offense13.0136th of 138
SP+ defense37.6134th of 138
PRIME-27.9137th of 138
Elo1065132nd of 138
Week 9

Northern Illinois at UNLV

Sat, Oct 31, 10:30 PM ET. SP+ projection: Northern Illinois 13, UNLV 38. Big Al's pick: UNLV (95%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game15.1135th
Yards per play5.55110th
Success rate40.4%100th
Explosive play rate10.6%104th
Yards per carry4.8095th
Yards per pass attempt6.74107th
Sack rate allowed9.8%122nd
3rd down conversion30.9%129th

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed38.6136th
Yards per play allowed6.49109th
Success rate allowed49.8%134th
Explosive plays allowed13.2%106th
Yards per carry allowed5.97126th
Yards per attempt allowed7.4479th
Sack rate3.9%121st
3rd downs allowed56.4%137th

Players

DeAree Rogers (WR), Taron Dickens (QB), Telly Johnson Jr. (RB).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1at IowaL 0–40
2vs. Illinois StateL 24–28
3at ArizonaL 17–42
4at Georgia StateL 14–35
6vs. Air ForceL 7–28
7at WyomingL 23–41
8vs. Hawai'iL 21–56

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Northern Illinois with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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