This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
ACC

Syracuse

3–4 (1–4 ACC). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating-2.384th of 138
SP+ offense25.086th of 138
SP+ defense27.178th of 138
PRIME-1.577th of 138
Elo1328104th of 138
Week 9

SMU at Syracuse

Sat, Oct 31, 12:00 PM ET. SP+ projects Syracuse 20, SMU 33. Big Al's pick: SMU (81%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game31.652nd
Yards per play6.0773rd
Success rate44.7%60th
Explosive play rate12.1%73rd
Yards per carry4.66104th
Yards per pass attempt7.9455th
Sack rate allowed5.9%81st
3rd down conversion45.1%39th

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed26.394th
Yards per play allowed5.7067th
Success rate allowed40.6%58th
Explosive plays allowed12.2%90th
Yards per carry allowed5.41105th
Yards per attempt allowed6.3435th
Sack rate6.2%68th
3rd downs allowed34.7%41st

Players

Ahmad Miller (RB), Chris D'Appolonia (LB), Steven Angeli (QB), Tylik Hill (RB), Umari Hatcher (WR).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1vs. New HampshireW 66–3
2vs. CaliforniaL 18–21
3at PittsburghL 13–27
5at UConnW 42–41
6at VirginiaL 25–28
7vs. LouisvilleL 26–34
8at North CarolinaW 31–30

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Syracuse with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them like.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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