This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
Big 12

Arizona State

4–3 (2–2 Big 12). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating0.670th of 138
SP+ offense26.969th of 138
SP+ defense26.168th of 138
PRIME2.259th of 138
Elo147173rd of 138
Week 9

Arizona State at BYU

Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM ET. SP+ projection: Arizona State 14, BYU 37. Big Al's pick: BYU (89%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game30.956th
Yards per play5.7897th
Success rate38.8%116th
Explosive play rate11.9%78th
Yards per carry5.6237th
Yards per pass attempt6.26115th
Sack rate allowed5.9%82nd
3rd down conversion27.5%133rd

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed29.9110th
Yards per play allowed6.38103rd
Success rate allowed45.2%104th
Explosive plays allowed10.9%62nd
Yards per carry allowed5.0786th
Yards per attempt allowed8.28101st
Sack rate6.5%61st
3rd downs allowed43.2%102nd

Players

Cardae Mack (RB), Cutter Boley (QB), Jalen Thompson (DL), Julian Hugo (), Kyson Brown (RB), Omarion Miller (WR), Reed Harris (WR).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1vs. Morgan StateW 70–7
2at Texas A&ML 20–48
3vs. KansasW 24–17
5vs. BaylorL 19–55
6vs. Hawai'iW 30–12
7at Texas TechL 25–53
8vs. Kansas StateW 28–17

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Arizona State with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

Share as an image

Image style

Leave a field empty to drop it from the image. A blank line in the description starts a new paragraph.