This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
ACC

Virginia Tech

6–2 (3–2 ACC). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating8.942nd of 138
SP+ offense32.736th of 138
SP+ defense23.443rd of 138
PRIME6.044th of 138
Elo151664th of 138

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game35.034th
Yards per play——
Success rate——
Explosive play rate——
Yards per carry——
Yards per pass attempt——
Sack rate allowed——
3rd down conversion——

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed20.537th
Yards per play allowed5.2429th
Success rate allowed34.7%11th
Explosive plays allowed12.3%94th
Yards per carry allowed4.1425th
Yards per attempt allowed6.5849th
Sack rate8.3%23rd
3rd downs allowed28.0%10th

Players

Aycen Stevens (DL), Cortez Harris (DL), Ethan Grunkemeyer (QB), Jeffrey Overton Jr. (RB), Luke Reynolds (TE), Mylachi Williams (DL), Que'Sean Brown (WR).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1vs. VMIW 73–3
2vs. Old DominionW 44–21
3at MarylandW 35–26
4at Boston CollegeW 21–14
5vs. PittsburghL 33–35
6at CaliforniaL 20–25
7vs. Georgia TechW 34–24
8at ClemsonW 20–16

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Virginia Tech with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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