This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
Conference USA

New Mexico State

3–4 (2–1 Conference USA). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating-14.5124th of 138
SP+ offense16.9124th of 138
SP+ defense31.1109th of 138
PRIME-12.1118th of 138
Elo1249115th of 138
Week 9

Jacksonville State at New Mexico State

Wed, Oct 28, 8:00 PM ET. SP+ projection: New Mexico State 19, Jacksonville State 31. Big Al's pick: Jacksonville State (69%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game24.695th
Yards per play6.2562nd
Success rate43.3%75th
Explosive play rate12.9%49th
Yards per carry5.3655th
Yards per pass attempt7.4780th
Sack rate allowed4.4%42nd
3rd down conversion36.8%90th

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed25.484th
Yards per play allowed5.2226th
Success rate allowed37.0%32nd
Explosive plays allowed9.4%23rd
Yards per carry allowed3.9517th
Yards per attempt allowed6.5347th
Sack rate6.1%71st
3rd downs allowed40.0%82nd

Players

Gabe Peterson (DE), James Jones (RB), Trey Hedden (QB).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1at Florida StateL 17–34
1vs. MercyhurstW 51–14
2at Hawai'iL 19–29
4vs. New MexicoL 18–42
5vs. Western KentuckyW 34–13
6at Florida InternationalL 3–22
8at Sam HoustonW 30–24

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare New Mexico State with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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