This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
Big 12

Arizona

6–1 (3–1 Big 12). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating15.715th of 138
SP+ offense35.714th of 138
SP+ defense19.827th of 138
PRIME15.514th of 138
Elo181115th of 138
Week 9

Arizona at Texas Tech

Sat, Oct 31, 12:00 PM ET. SP+ projection: Arizona 25, Texas Tech 33. Big Al's pick: Texas Tech (54%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game36.121st
Yards per play6.5441st
Success rate46.2%40th
Explosive play rate13.1%45th
Yards per carry5.3457th
Yards per pass attempt7.8162nd
Sack rate allowed5.8%76th
3rd down conversion44.8%42nd

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed16.723rd
Yards per play allowed5.6461st
Success rate allowed38.2%44th
Explosive plays allowed11.7%82nd
Yards per carry allowed4.0722nd
Yards per attempt allowed8.0191st
Sack rate9.2%13th
3rd downs allowed43.2%101st

Players

Chase Kennedy (LB), Dash Fifita (LB), Isaiah Mizell (WR), Kedrick Reescano (RB), Noah Fifita (QB), Tre Spivey (WR).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1vs. Northern ArizonaW 35–7
2at BYUL 17–28
3vs. Northern IllinoisW 42–17
4at Washington StateW 34–24
5vs. CincinnatiW 34–7
6at West VirginiaW 52–31
8vs. Iowa StateW 39–3

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Arizona with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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