This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
Big 12

Oklahoma State

5–2 (3–1 Big 12). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating12.128th of 138
SP+ offense35.316th of 138
SP+ defense23.546th of 138
PRIME12.122nd of 138
Elo146376th of 138
Week 9

Oklahoma State at Iowa State

Sat, Oct 31, 7:00 PM ET. SP+ projection: Oklahoma State 33, Iowa State 25. Big Al's pick: Oklahoma State (57%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game40.08th
Yards per play7.675th
Success rate51.5%10th
Explosive play rate17.0%5th
Yards per carry5.8826th
Yards per pass attempt9.609th
Sack rate allowed3.1%20th
3rd down conversion36.7%93rd

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed23.764th
Yards per play allowed5.7370th
Success rate allowed42.0%71st
Explosive plays allowed10.0%37th
Yards per carry allowed4.1829th
Yards per attempt allowed8.0090th
Sack rate6.9%51st
3rd downs allowed35.0%42nd

Players

Caleb Hawkins (RB), Drew Mestemaker (QB), Justin Bowick (WR), Malik Charles (DE), Miles Coleman (WR), Wyatt Young (WR).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1at TulsaL 10–24
2vs. OregonW 39–31
3vs. Murray StateW 59–0
4at West VirginiaW 41–24
6vs. UCFW 42–28
7at HoustonL 32–35
8vs. ColoradoW 57–24

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare Oklahoma State with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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