College football, 2026 season
Data-driven picks for every FBS game + interactive charts you can customize to support any narrative (except Big 12 supremacy).
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About
Everything on this site starts with someone else's data, and we credit all of it. The projections, picks, rankings and tiers are our own math on top.
| Source | What we use | How often |
|---|---|---|
| CollegeFootballData.com, via the public cfbfastR files | Schedules, final scores, pregame Elo, play-by-play and box score stats, rosters | Usually posted Sunday or Monday morning after games |
| DraftKings lines (via The Odds API and CollegeFootballData.com) | The line and total on each game, and where each opened | Every morning, and before kickoffs Thursday to Saturday |
| Team logos and colors (ESPN's, via CollegeFootballData.com) | The logos on charts, game cards and team pages. They belong to the schools and are used only to identify the teams. | Preseason |
| SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update) | Overall, offense, defense and special teams ratings | Weekly |
| PRIME (primecfb.com) | Net, offense, defense and special teams ratings, strength of schedule, strength of record | Weekly |
| AP Top 25 (via NCAA.com) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sunday afternoons |
| AFCA Coaches Poll (via Yahoo Sports, CBS Sports, SI) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sundays |
| 247Sports | Team talent composite, star counts, 2026 transfer portal rankings | Preseason |
| The NIL Standard | Estimated NIL roster values | Preseason |
| us-atlas (U.S. Census Bureau boundaries) | State shapes for the map | Once |
Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of the 138 FBS teams.
About
Every stat and term on the site, explained like you're five. Or like you're a grown adult who never asked what EPA means and is now too embarrassed to.
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What the numbers on team pages, charts and head to head mean.
How Big Al's picks, tiers and projections work. The full method is on Sources and methods.
Who's who and how the 12-team field works.
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For where the numbers come from and the exact math, see Sources and methods. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
About
Last updated October 26, 2026.
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Big Al's CFB Lab publishes college football statistics, projections and opinions. Everything here is for information and entertainment. Projections and picks are estimates from public data and can be wrong, sometimes badly.
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Last updated October 26, 2026.
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Projected scores come from SP+ offense, defense and special teams, plus 2.5 points for the home team. Cards also show DraftKings' line and total as facts: we pick winners, not bets. Open Details for the full read, or Head to head for every stat.
Final scores against what we said before kickoff. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favored, unless he made the call himself on a toss-up or one of the week's biggest games. Ranked means in that week's AP poll. Open a game for the full preview as it stood going into the week.
Straight-up picks: did the pick win? Big Al's pick is the team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favor. Big Al and SP+ picks start in Week 8; Elo picks go back to Week 1.
Each column is that week's ranking. Arrows compare the latest poll to the week before. NR means not ranked.
Rankings come from cfbtrack.com. Week 1 is the preseason poll; each later week is the poll released before that week's games.
SP+ vs. payroll is the average, across a conference's teams with an NIL valuation (positive means its teams play better than their payrolls predict). Blue-chip ratio is the share of all its rostered players who were 4- or 5-star recruits.
Ranks are national, out of 138 FBS teams. A top-10 team also counts toward the top 25 and top 40, and everyone outside the last cutoff counts as weak. Open a conference to see its teams.
Seeds 1–4 get first-round byes. Seeds 5–8 host the first round.
The columns on the right show where each team would be seeded under the other ratings. A dash means out.
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor. On the toss-ups and the biggest games, Big Al makes the call himself and says why.
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
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Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Week 9, Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM ET, Fargodome.
Big Al's pick: North Dakota State, 99% to win.
| Kickoff | Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM ET |
|---|---|
| TV | MW+ |
| Where | Fargodome |
| Weather | Indoors |
| Line | North Dakota State −24.5, total 42.5 |
| Line movement | Opened North Dakota State −27.5; moved 3 points toward UTEP. Total opened 49.5, down 7. |
| Series | First meeting |
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | North Dakota State by 35.6 | 99% | 39 |
| PRIME | North Dakota State by 32.5 | 99% | |
| Elo | North Dakota State | 98% | |
| The line | North Dakota State −24.5, opened −27.5 | 42.5, opened 49.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Wed, Oct 28, 2:21 PM ET.
Big Al's pick: North Dakota State. 99% to win
All three ratings favor North Dakota State, by 32.5 to 35.6 points, and it isn't close. North Dakota State's best matchup is its scoring defense, 3rd in points allowed, against UTEP's scoring offense at 135th. UTEP doesn't have a unit with a clear edge over the one it faces.
| SP+ offense | SP+ defense | |
|---|---|---|
| UTEP | 12.7 (137th) | 36.6 (130th) |
| North Dakota State | 25.4 (81st) | 16.8 (17th) |
| SUPLEX | SUPLEX allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| UTEP | 50.8% (103rd) | 60.9% (112th) |
| North Dakota State | 48.9% (118th) | 46.3% (23rd) |
| Success rate | Explosive play rate | |
|---|---|---|
| UTEP | 38.0% (120th) | 11.6% (83rd) |
| North Dakota State | 40.1% (103rd) | 12.5% (62nd) |
| Success rate allowed | Explosive plays allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| UTEP | 45.0% (101st) | 12.3% (93rd) |
| North Dakota State | 36.5% (23rd) | 10.1% (41st) |
| Yards per carry | Yards per attempt | |
|---|---|---|
| UTEP | 5.28 (63rd) | 8.19 (45th) |
| North Dakota State | 4.62 (110th) | 7.50 (75th) |
| 3rd down conversion | 3rd downs allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| UTEP | 27.2% (134th) | 45.1% (113th) |
| North Dakota State | 42.2% (58th) | 34.3% (37th) |
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; UTEP and North Dakota State are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 24, 2026.
| Player | Passing success rate (per dropback) | Passing yards |
|---|---|---|
| EJ Colson, UTEP | 37.6% (138th) | 632 (136th) |
| Nathan Hayes, North Dakota State | 41.5% (93rd) | 1,484 (58th) |
| Player | Yards per carry | Rushing success rate |
|---|---|---|
| Tavorus Jones, UTEP | 4.6 (225th) | 42.9% (187th) |
| Myles Mitchell, North Dakota State | 4.4 (237th) | 34.8% (300th) |
| Player | Explosive catches (16+ yards) | Receiving yards |
|---|---|---|
| Jaden Smith, UTEP | 4 (408th) | 233 (301st) |
| Carver Cheeks, UTEP | 4 (406th) | 183 (394th) |
| Jackson Williams, North Dakota State | 13 (35th) | 505 (51st) |
| Mekhi Collins, North Dakota State | 3 (470th) | 227 (310th) |
| Player | Sacks | INTs | Fumble recoveries | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marion Moore, North Dakota State | 0 | 4 | 0 | 67th |
| Sterling Miles, UTEP | 3 | 0 | 0 | 239th |
| Donovan Woolen, North Dakota State | 2 | 1 | 0 | 188th |
| Gavin Sell, North Dakota State | 2 | 1 | 0 | 189th |
| Adarius Hutchinson, UTEP | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1465th |
| Decorian Thompson, UTEP | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1466th |
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 24, 2026.
On a neutral field, SP+ has North Dakota State 33.1 points better (41st to 134th). PRIME also has North Dakota State ahead, by 30.0. Elo, which only sees results, also has North Dakota State ahead (41st to 136th).
| UTEP | North Dakota State | |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ overall | -24.5 (134th) | 8.6 (41st) |
| SP+ offense | 12.7 (137th) | 25.4 (81st) |
| SP+ defense | 36.6 (130th) | 16.8 (17th) |
| SP+ special teams | -0.6 (131st) | 0.0 (68th) |
| PRIME net | -25.8 (136th) | 4.2 (49th) |
| PRIME offense | -9.76 (133rd) | -4.33 (98th) |
| PRIME defense | -13.24 (135th) | 7.12 (21st) |
| PRIME SOS | 0.6 (40th) | -6.1 (100th) |
| PRIME SOR | -2.4 (122nd) | 0.8 (47th) |
| Elo | 992 (136th) | 1631 (41st) |
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
UTEP's offense ranks 135th in adjusted EPA per play, and the North Dakota State defense it faces ranks 11th in EPA per play allowed. North Dakota State's offense ranks 89th against UTEP's 132nd-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is North Dakota State's offense against UTEP's defense. The biggest edge on the board is North Dakota State's passing game: 66th in adjusted EPA per pass, against UTEP's 136th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch.
| UTEP | North Dakota State | |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play (adjusted) | −0.03 (135th) | +0.07 (89th) |
| EPA per pass (adjusted) | +0.03 (137th) | +0.20 (66th) |
| EPA per rush (adjusted) | +0.03 (107th) | +0.02 (112th) |
| Success rate (adjusted) | 35.6% (132nd) | 38.7% (108th) |
| Success rate, standard downs (adjusted) | 42.5% (132nd) | 43.9% (118th) |
| Success rate, passing downs (adjusted) | 26.5% (127th) | 30.5% (67th) |
| Explosiveness (adjusted) | 0.97 (16th) | 0.94 (50th) |
| Line yards per carry (adjusted) | 2.73 (126th) | 2.90 (91st) |
| Open-field yards per carry (adjusted) | 1.20 (45th) | 1.01 (105th) |
| EPA per play allowed (adjusted) | +0.23 (132nd) | −0.01 (11th) |
| EPA per pass allowed (adjusted) | +0.33 (136th) | +0.10 (17th) |
| EPA per rush allowed (adjusted) | +0.14 (122nd) | −0.03 (9th) |
| Success rate allowed (adjusted) | 48.8% (135th) | 38.3% (25th) |
| Explosiveness allowed (adjusted) | 0.95 (101st) | 0.92 (31st) |
| Line yards allowed per carry (adjusted) | 3.09 (111th) | 2.85 (38th) |
| Open-field yards allowed per carry (adjusted) | 1.35 (121st) | 0.90 (13th) |
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
UTEP is better running (118th in EPA per rush) than throwing (135th). North Dakota State's run defense ranks 13th, so the defense has the better of it. North Dakota State is about as good throwing (76th in EPA per pass) as running (89th). On third down, North Dakota State has the edge: its offense ranks 71st in EPA per third-down play, and the defense it faces ranks 125th.
| UTEP | North Dakota State | |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | −0.08 (136th) | +0.10 (83rd) |
| EPA per pass | −0.10 (135th) | +0.20 (76th) |
| EPA per rush | −0.01 (118th) | +0.05 (89th) |
| EPA per 3rd-down play | −0.06 (138th) | +0.45 (71st) |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.28 (134th) | −0.13 (3rd) |
| EPA per pass allowed | +0.50 (136th) | −0.15 (1st) |
| EPA per rush allowed | +0.17 (117th) | −0.09 (13th) |
| EPA per 3rd-down play allowed | +0.61 (125th) | +0.10 (7th) |
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
UTEP is outscored by 22.2 a game, and North Dakota State by 15.3. UTEP's offense ranks 135th in scoring, and the North Dakota State defense it faces ranks 3rd in points allowed. North Dakota State's offense ranks 77th against UTEP's 134th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is North Dakota State's offense against UTEP's defense.
| UTEP | North Dakota State | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored | 15.1 (135th) | 27.8 (77th) |
| Points allowed | 37.3 (134th) | 12.5 (3rd) |
Per game, FBS opponents only.
UTEP has no clear edge here. Its best is yards per carry, 63rd, against a defense ranked 31st in yards per carry allowed. North Dakota State's best matchup is third downs: its offense ranks 58th in 3rd down conversion rate, and UTEP's defense ranks 113th in 3rd down conversions allowed.
| UTEP | North Dakota State | |
|---|---|---|
| Pass yards / game | 154.4 (126th) | 190.4 (109th) |
| Rush yards / game | 159.9 (79th) | 167.9 (68th) |
| Yards per play | 5.80 (94th) | 5.69 (104th) |
| Yards per carry | 5.28 (63rd) | 4.62 (110th) |
| Yards per attempt | 8.19 (45th) | 7.50 (75th) |
| Completion % | 76.5% (6th) | 62.6% (72nd) |
| Success rate | 38.0% (120th) | 40.1% (103rd) |
| Explosive play rate | 11.6% (83rd) | 12.5% (62nd) |
| 3rd down conversion | 27.2% (134th) | 42.2% (58th) |
| Sack rate (taken) | 21.0% (134th) | 4.7% (47th) |
| INT rate (thrown) | 3.8% (121st) | 3.5% (109th) |
| SUPLEX | 50.8% (103rd) | 48.9% (118th) |
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
North Dakota State's defense is best placed to pick off passes: it ranks 2nd in interception rate, and UTEP's offense is bottom-20 at avoiding interceptions (121st). That's a mismatch.
| UTEP | North Dakota State | |
|---|---|---|
| Pass yards allowed / game | 204.6 (56th) | 132.1 (3rd) |
| Rush yards allowed / game | 196.6 (120th) | 132.1 (43rd) |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.28 (98th) | 4.73 (9th) |
| Yards per carry allowed | 5.57 (111th) | 4.21 (31st) |
| Yards per attempt allowed | 7.42 (77th) | 5.81 (16th) |
| Success rate allowed | 45.0% (101st) | 36.5% (23rd) |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.3% (93rd) | 10.1% (41st) |
| 3rd downs allowed | 45.1% (113th) | 34.3% (37th) |
| Sack rate (generated) | 4.0% (119th) | 7.1% (45th) |
| INT rate (generated) | 1.6% (106th) | 6.6% (2nd) |
| SUPLEX allowed | 60.9% (112th) | 46.3% (23rd) |
What opponents managed against them.
North Dakota State is +0.4 in turnover margin a game and UTEP is −0.3. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 4-point edge for North Dakota State. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it. Fumble recoveries are mostly luck, and UTEP's takeaways lean on them (0.7 of 1.1 a game).
| UTEP | North Dakota State | |
|---|---|---|
| Interceptions thrown / game | 0.71 (59th) | 1.00 (105th) |
| Fumbles lost / game | 0.71 (99th) | 0.14 (3rd) |
| Giveaways / game | 1.43 (88th) | 1.14 (53rd) |
| Interceptions / game | 0.43 (105th) | 1.29 (10th) |
| Fumbles recovered / game | 0.71 (22nd) | 0.29 (94th) |
| Takeaways / game | 1.14 (66th) | 1.57 (27th) |
| Turnover margin / game | -0.3 (89th) | +0.4 (36th) |
Per game, from play-by-play.
UTEP has the more talented roster (102nd in the 247Sports talent composite; North Dakota State is 131st). But North Dakota State plays further above its talent: +17.8 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to UTEP's −19.7.
| UTEP | North Dakota State | |
|---|---|---|
| Talent composite | 585.8 (102nd) | 515.6 (131st) |
| Blue-chip ratio | 2.6% (117th) | 0.0% (126th) |
| Players on roster | 110 (75th) | 130 (3rd) |
| Rated by 247Sports | 76 (80th) | 70 (98th) |
| 5-star players | 0 (37th) | 0 (37th) |
| 4-star players | 2 (106th) | 0 (126th) |
| 3-star players | 70 (28th) | 50 (106th) |
| Below 3-star | 4 (38th) | 20 (1st) |
| 2026 transfers in | 23 (56th) | — () |
| Transfer share | 30.3% (61st) | — () |
| SP+ vs. talent | -19.7 (136th) | +17.8 (5th) |
| Returning production | -1.1% (134th) | — () |
| Returning passing production | 18.1% (72nd) | — () |
| Returning rushing production | -30.9% (130th) | — () |
| Returning receiving production | 15.3% (111th) | — () |
| 2026 recruiting class (national rank) | 92 (92nd) | 117 (117th) |
| Recruiting rank, last four classes | 91.5 (84th) | 139.8 (134th) |
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
UTEP is −2.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (−1.6). North Dakota State is +2.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (+2.4).
| UTEP | North Dakota State | |
|---|---|---|
| BAWA (total) | -2.5 (129th) | +2.0 (20th) |
| Schedule BAWA | -0.0 (90th) | +1.3 (32nd) |
| Roster BAWA | -0.6 (107th) | -1.2 (130th) |
| Coach BAWA | -1.6 (125th) | +2.4 (5th) |
| Luck BAWA | -0.3 (89th) | -0.4 (91st) |
Big Al Wins Added: where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Big Al picks North Dakota State, 99% to win. All three ratings favor the same team. North Dakota State's best matchup is its scoring defense, 3rd in points allowed, against UTEP's scoring offense at 135th.
Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM ET at Fargodome, on MW+.
DraftKings has North Dakota State −24.5, total 42.5. Big Al picks winners, not bets.
This is the first meeting.
UTEP's is EJ Colson (632 passing yards this season); North Dakota State's is Nathan Hayes (1,484 passing yards this season).
Numbers through the games of Oct 24, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
UTEP and North Dakota State: team pages with every stat and national rank. Compare any two teams.