College football, 2026 season
Data-driven picks for every FBS game + interactive charts you can customize to support any narrative (except Big 12 supremacy).
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Everything on this site starts with someone else's data, and we credit all of it. The projections, picks, rankings and tiers are our own math on top.
| Source | What we use | How often |
|---|---|---|
| CollegeFootballData.com, via the public cfbfastR files | Schedules, final scores, pregame Elo, play-by-play and box score stats, rosters | Usually posted Sunday or Monday morning after games |
| DraftKings lines (via The Odds API and CollegeFootballData.com) | The line and total on each game, and where each opened | Every morning, and before kickoffs Thursday to Saturday |
| Team logos and colors (ESPN's, via CollegeFootballData.com) | The logos on charts, game cards and team pages. They belong to the schools and are used only to identify the teams. | Preseason |
| SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update) | Overall, offense, defense and special teams ratings | Weekly |
| PRIME (primecfb.com) | Net, offense, defense and special teams ratings, strength of schedule, strength of record | Weekly |
| AP Top 25 (via NCAA.com) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sunday afternoons |
| AFCA Coaches Poll (via Yahoo Sports, CBS Sports, SI) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sundays |
| 247Sports | Team talent composite, star counts, 2026 transfer portal rankings | Preseason |
| The NIL Standard | Estimated NIL roster values | Preseason |
| us-atlas (U.S. Census Bureau boundaries) | State shapes for the map | Once |
Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of the 138 FBS teams.
About
Every stat and term on the site, explained like you're five. Or like you're a grown adult who never asked what EPA means and is now too embarrassed to.
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What the numbers on team pages, charts and head to head mean.
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Who's who and how the 12-team field works.
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For where the numbers come from and the exact math, see Sources and methods. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
About
Last updated October 26, 2026.
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Big Al's CFB Lab publishes college football statistics, projections and opinions. Everything here is for information and entertainment. Projections and picks are estimates from public data and can be wrong, sometimes badly.
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Last updated October 26, 2026.
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Projected scores come from SP+ offense, defense and special teams, plus 2.5 points for the home team. Cards also show DraftKings' line and total as facts: we pick winners, not bets. Open Details for the full read, or Head to head for every stat.
Final scores against what we said before kickoff. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favored, unless he made the call himself on a toss-up or one of the week's biggest games. Ranked means in that week's AP poll. Open a game for the full preview as it stood going into the week.
Straight-up picks: did the pick win? Big Al's pick is the team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favor. Big Al and SP+ picks start in Week 8; Elo picks go back to Week 1.
Each column is that week's ranking. Arrows compare the latest poll to the week before. NR means not ranked.
Rankings come from cfbtrack.com. Week 1 is the preseason poll; each later week is the poll released before that week's games.
SP+ vs. payroll is the average, across a conference's teams with an NIL valuation (positive means its teams play better than their payrolls predict). Blue-chip ratio is the share of all its rostered players who were 4- or 5-star recruits.
Ranks are national, out of 138 FBS teams. A top-10 team also counts toward the top 25 and top 40, and everyone outside the last cutoff counts as weak. Open a conference to see its teams.
Seeds 1–4 get first-round byes. Seeds 5–8 host the first round.
The columns on the right show where each team would be seeded under the other ratings. A dash means out.
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor. On the toss-ups and the biggest games, Big Al makes the call himself and says why.
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
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Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Week 9, Sat, Oct 31, 10:30 PM ET, Allegiant Stadium.
Big Al's pick: UNLV, 95% to win.
| Kickoff | Sat, Oct 31, 10:30 PM ET |
|---|---|
| TV | CBSSN |
| Where | Allegiant Stadium |
| Weather | Indoors |
| Line | UNLV −24.5, total 54.5 |
| Line movement | Total opened 52.5, up 2. |
| Series | Northern Illinois leads 5–0 |
| Last meeting | Northern Illinois 38–30 in 2015 |
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | UNLV by 25.7 | 97% | 53 |
| PRIME | UNLV by 25.1 | 96% | |
| Elo | UNLV | 94% | |
| The line | UNLV −24.5 | 54.5, opened 52.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Wed, Oct 28, 2:21 PM ET.
Big Al's pick: UNLV. 96% to win
All three ratings favor UNLV, by 25.1 to 25.7 points, and it isn't close. UNLV's best matchup is its 3rd down offense, 26th in 3rd down conversion, against Northern Illinois' 3rd down defense at 137th. Northern Illinois' way back in is its offensive line, 50th in line yards per carry, against UNLV's run-stopping front at 132nd.
| SP+ offense | SP+ defense | |
|---|---|---|
| Northern Illinois | 13.5 (134th) | 38.4 (135th) |
| UNLV | 25.3 (83rd) | 27.6 (80th) |
| SUPLEX | SUPLEX allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Northern Illinois | 54.6% (81st) | 63.8% (129th) |
| UNLV | 50.2% (105th) | 54.3% (73rd) |
| Success rate | Explosive play rate | |
|---|---|---|
| Northern Illinois | 40.4% (100th) | 10.6% (104th) |
| UNLV | 41.0% (92nd) | 11.4% (93rd) |
| Success rate allowed | Explosive plays allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Northern Illinois | 49.8% (134th) | 13.2% (106th) |
| UNLV | 38.2% (45th) | 13.0% (105th) |
| Yards per carry | Yards per attempt | |
|---|---|---|
| Northern Illinois | 4.80 (95th) | 6.74 (107th) |
| UNLV | 5.30 (60th) | 8.80 (26th) |
| 3rd down conversion | 3rd downs allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Northern Illinois | 30.9% (129th) | 56.4% (137th) |
| UNLV | 46.9% (26th) | 36.6% (51st) |
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Northern Illinois and UNLV are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 24, 2026.
| Player | Passing success rate (per dropback) | Passing yards |
|---|---|---|
| Taron Dickens, Northern Illinois | 38.7% (130th) | 1,378 (77th) |
| Jackson Arnold, UNLV | 39.5% (123rd) | 1,153 (96th) |
| Player | Yards per carry | Rushing success rate |
|---|---|---|
| Telly Johnson Jr., Northern Illinois | 5.1 (148th) | 43.3% (173rd) |
| Jai'Den Thomas, UNLV | 4.4 (238th) | 33.7% (315th) |
| Player | Explosive catches (16+ yards) | Receiving yards |
|---|---|---|
| DeAree Rogers, Northern Illinois | 7 (167th) | 549 (37th) |
| Cam Thompson, Northern Illinois | 3 (472nd) | 157 (451st) |
| Kayden McGee, UNLV | 5 (317th) | 330 (156th) |
| Keyan Burnett, UNLV | 4 (404th) | 165 (438th) |
| Player | Sacks | INTs | Fumble recoveries | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yassine Falke, Northern Illinois | 0 | 4 | 0 | 68th |
| Mumu Bin-Wahad, UNLV | 1 | 3 | 0 | 90th |
| Tre Fulton, UNLV | 2 | 1 | 0 | 237th |
| Andruw Ellis, Northern Illinois | 0 | 1 | 1 | 449th |
| Avery Jones, Northern Illinois | 2 | 0 | 0 | 450th |
| Andre Porter, UNLV | 1 | 1 | 0 | 557th |
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 24, 2026.
On a neutral field, SP+ has UNLV 23.2 points better (82nd to 136th). PRIME also has UNLV ahead, by 22.6. Elo, which only sees results, also has UNLV ahead (69th to 132nd).
| Northern Illinois | UNLV | |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ overall | -25.4 (136th) | -2.2 (82nd) |
| SP+ offense | 13.5 (134th) | 25.3 (83rd) |
| SP+ defense | 38.4 (135th) | 27.6 (80th) |
| SP+ special teams | -0.5 (124th) | 0.1 (54th) |
| PRIME net | -27.8 (137th) | -5.2 (92nd) |
| PRIME offense | -7.70 (120th) | -6.76 (116th) |
| PRIME defense | -18.09 (138th) | 1.43 (54th) |
| PRIME SOS | -1.3 (58th) | -3.3 (77th) |
| PRIME SOR | -3.7 (134th) | -0.1 (73rd) |
| Elo | 1065 (132nd) | 1489 (69th) |
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Northern Illinois' offense ranks 120th in adjusted EPA per play, and the UNLV defense it faces ranks 54th in EPA per play allowed. UNLV's offense ranks 87th against Northern Illinois' 128th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is UNLV's offense against Northern Illinois' defense. The biggest edge on the board is Northern Illinois' offensive line in the run game: 50th in adjusted line yards per carry, against UNLV's 132nd-ranked defense. That's a mismatch.
| Northern Illinois | UNLV | |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play (adjusted) | +0.02 (120th) | +0.07 (87th) |
| EPA per pass (adjusted) | +0.13 (105th) | +0.19 (72nd) |
| EPA per rush (adjusted) | +0.01 (119th) | +0.05 (86th) |
| Success rate (adjusted) | 37.9% (118th) | 38.0% (115th) |
| Success rate, standard downs (adjusted) | 43.8% (120th) | 44.0% (117th) |
| Success rate, passing downs (adjusted) | 29.6% (90th) | 29.5% (92nd) |
| Explosiveness (adjusted) | 0.95 (35th) | 0.94 (72nd) |
| Line yards per carry (adjusted) | 3.00 (50th) | 2.98 (58th) |
| Open-field yards per carry (adjusted) | 1.08 (84th) | 1.18 (54th) |
| EPA per play allowed (adjusted) | +0.21 (128th) | +0.08 (54th) |
| EPA per pass allowed (adjusted) | +0.26 (105th) | +0.13 (30th) |
| EPA per rush allowed (adjusted) | +0.17 (133rd) | +0.09 (95th) |
| Success rate allowed (adjusted) | 48.7% (134th) | 40.1% (45th) |
| Explosiveness allowed (adjusted) | 0.96 (115th) | 0.93 (62nd) |
| Line yards allowed per carry (adjusted) | 3.13 (117th) | 3.22 (132nd) |
| Open-field yards allowed per carry (adjusted) | 1.39 (127th) | 1.23 (95th) |
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Northern Illinois is about as good throwing (124th in EPA per pass) as running (115th). UNLV is better throwing (69th in EPA per pass) than running (96th). Northern Illinois' pass defense ranks 135th, so that's a mismatch. On third down, UNLV has the edge: its offense ranks 39th in EPA per third-down play, and the defense it faces ranks 138th.
| Northern Illinois | UNLV | |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | −0.04 (128th) | +0.09 (88th) |
| EPA per pass | +0.01 (124th) | +0.22 (69th) |
| EPA per rush | 0.00 (115th) | +0.04 (96th) |
| EPA per 3rd-down play | +0.23 (118th) | +0.57 (39th) |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.34 (137th) | +0.07 (56th) |
| EPA per pass allowed | +0.48 (135th) | +0.04 (21st) |
| EPA per rush allowed | +0.28 (133rd) | +0.17 (117th) |
| EPA per 3rd-down play allowed | +1.04 (138th) | +0.34 (51st) |
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Northern Illinois is outscored by 23.5 a game, and UNLV by 0.4. Northern Illinois' offense ranks 135th in scoring, and the UNLV defense it faces ranks 64th in points allowed. UNLV's offense ranks 100th against Northern Illinois' 136th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is UNLV's offense against Northern Illinois' defense.
| Northern Illinois | UNLV | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored | 15.1 (135th) | 24.1 (100th) |
| Points allowed | 38.6 (136th) | 23.7 (64th) |
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Northern Illinois' best matchup is its run game: its offense ranks 95th in yards per carry, and UNLV's defense ranks 121st in yards per carry allowed. UNLV's best matchup is third downs: its offense ranks 26th in 3rd down conversion rate, and Northern Illinois' defense ranks 137th in 3rd down conversions allowed. That's a mismatch.
| Northern Illinois | UNLV | |
|---|---|---|
| Pass yards / game | 205.0 (96th) | 192.2 (108th) |
| Rush yards / game | 115.3 (128th) | 189.0 (43rd) |
| Yards per play | 5.55 (110th) | 6.34 (56th) |
| Yards per carry | 4.80 (95th) | 5.30 (60th) |
| Yards per attempt | 6.74 (107th) | 8.80 (26th) |
| Completion % | 69.0% (34th) | 70.2% (30th) |
| Success rate | 40.4% (100th) | 41.0% (92nd) |
| Explosive play rate | 10.6% (104th) | 11.4% (93rd) |
| 3rd down conversion | 30.9% (129th) | 46.9% (26th) |
| Sack rate (taken) | 9.8% (122nd) | 10.9% (128th) |
| INT rate (thrown) | 2.8% (92nd) | 3.0% (98th) |
| SUPLEX | 54.6% (81st) | 50.2% (105th) |
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Northern Illinois' defense is best placed to pick off passes: it ranks 48th in interception rate, and UNLV's offense is bottom-40 at avoiding interceptions (98th). UNLV's defense is best placed to get off the field on third down: it ranks 51st in 3rd down conversions allowed, and Northern Illinois' offense is bottom-20 in 3rd down conversion rate (129th). That's a mismatch.
| Northern Illinois | UNLV | |
|---|---|---|
| Pass yards allowed / game | 208.4 (63rd) | 208.5 (64th) |
| Rush yards allowed / game | 221.6 (132nd) | 203.0 (126th) |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.49 (109th) | 5.65 (64th) |
| Yards per carry allowed | 5.97 (126th) | 5.75 (121st) |
| Yards per attempt allowed | 7.44 (79th) | 5.85 (18th) |
| Success rate allowed | 49.8% (134th) | 38.2% (45th) |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.2% (106th) | 13.0% (105th) |
| 3rd downs allowed | 56.4% (137th) | 36.6% (51st) |
| Sack rate (generated) | 3.9% (121st) | 4.9% (100th) |
| INT rate (generated) | 3.1% (48th) | 2.3% (72nd) |
| SUPLEX allowed | 63.8% (129th) | 54.3% (73rd) |
What opponents managed against them.
UNLV is −0.2 in turnover margin a game and Northern Illinois is −0.7. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 3-point edge for UNLV. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.
| Northern Illinois | UNLV | |
|---|---|---|
| Interceptions thrown / game | 0.86 (84th) | 0.67 (58th) |
| Fumbles lost / game | 0.86 (116th) | 0.83 (115th) |
| Giveaways / game | 1.71 (117th) | 1.50 (101st) |
| Interceptions / game | 0.86 (45th) | 1.33 (9th) |
| Fumbles recovered / game | 0.14 (121st) | 0.00 (131st) |
| Takeaways / game | 1.00 (88th) | 1.33 (53rd) |
| Turnover margin / game | -0.7 (116th) | -0.2 (84th) |
Per game, from play-by-play.
UNLV has the more talented roster (56th in the 247Sports talent composite; Northern Illinois is 126th). UNLV also plays further above its talent: −4.3 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Northern Illinois' −17.5.
| Northern Illinois | UNLV | |
|---|---|---|
| Talent composite | 536.6 (126th) | 696.0 (56th) |
| Blue-chip ratio | 0.0% (126th) | 14.1% (52nd) |
| Players on roster | 114 (44th) | 108 (87th) |
| Rated by 247Sports | 73 (87th) | 78 (70th) |
| 5-star players | 0 (37th) | 3 (17th) |
| 4-star players | 0 (126th) | 8 (62nd) |
| 3-star players | 68 (37th) | 67 (45th) |
| Below 3-star | 5 (29th) | 0 (113th) |
| 2026 transfers in | 20 (76th) | 20 (76th) |
| Transfer share | 27.4% (75th) | 25.6% (86th) |
| SP+ vs. talent | -17.5 (134th) | -4.3 (94th) |
| Returning production | 43.7% (61st) | 15.4% (107th) |
| Returning passing production | 137.7% (2nd) | 3.8% (98th) |
| Returning rushing production | 28.9% (83rd) | 31.1% (80th) |
| Returning receiving production | 92.9% (3rd) | 14.3% (115th) |
| 2026 recruiting class (national rank) | 82 (82nd) | 63 (63rd) |
| Recruiting rank, last four classes | 92.0 (85th) | 92.5 (89th) |
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Northern Illinois is −3.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (−1.8). UNLV is +0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (−0.7). Northern Illinois' record is 1.4 wins worse than its play on bad luck, so it's better than the record says.
| Northern Illinois | UNLV | |
|---|---|---|
| BAWA (total) | -3.5 (138th) | +0.5 (57th) |
| Schedule BAWA | +0.5 (67th) | +0.6 (64th) |
| Roster BAWA | -0.8 (124th) | +0.2 (59th) |
| Coach BAWA | -1.8 (131st) | -0.7 (96th) |
| Luck BAWA | -1.4 (131st) | +0.3 (45th) |
Big Al Wins Added: where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Big Al picks UNLV, 96% to win. All three ratings favor the same team. UNLV's best matchup is its 3rd down offense, 26th in 3rd down conversion, against Northern Illinois' 3rd down defense at 137th.
Sat, Oct 31, 10:30 PM ET at Allegiant Stadium, on CBSSN.
DraftKings has UNLV −24.5, total 54.5. Big Al picks winners, not bets.
Northern Illinois leads 5–0. Last meeting: Northern Illinois won 38–30 in 2015.
Northern Illinois' is Taron Dickens (1,378 passing yards this season); UNLV's is Jackson Arnold (1,153 passing yards this season).
Numbers through the games of Oct 24, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Northern Illinois and UNLV: team pages with every stat and national rank. Compare any two teams.