College football, 2026 season
Data-driven picks for every FBS game + interactive charts you can customize to support any narrative (except Big 12 supremacy).
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Everything on this site starts with someone else's data, and we credit all of it. The projections, picks, rankings and tiers are our own math on top.
| Source | What we use | How often |
|---|---|---|
| CollegeFootballData.com, via the public cfbfastR files | Schedules, final scores, pregame Elo, play-by-play and box score stats, rosters | Usually posted Sunday or Monday morning after games |
| DraftKings lines (via The Odds API and CollegeFootballData.com) | The line and total on each game, and where each opened | Every morning, and before kickoffs Thursday to Saturday |
| Team logos and colors (ESPN's, via CollegeFootballData.com) | The logos on charts, game cards and team pages. They belong to the schools and are used only to identify the teams. | Preseason |
| SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update) | Overall, offense, defense and special teams ratings | Weekly |
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| AP Top 25 (via NCAA.com) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sunday afternoons |
| AFCA Coaches Poll (via Yahoo Sports, CBS Sports, SI) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sundays |
| 247Sports | Team talent composite, star counts, 2026 transfer portal rankings | Preseason |
| The NIL Standard | Estimated NIL roster values | Preseason |
| us-atlas (U.S. Census Bureau boundaries) | State shapes for the map | Once |
Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of the 138 FBS teams.
About
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About
Last updated October 26, 2026.
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Big Al's CFB Lab publishes college football statistics, projections and opinions. Everything here is for information and entertainment. Projections and picks are estimates from public data and can be wrong, sometimes badly.
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Last updated October 26, 2026.
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Projected scores come from SP+ offense, defense and special teams, plus 2.5 points for the home team. Cards also show DraftKings' line and total as facts: we pick winners, not bets. Open Details for the full read, or Head to head for every stat.
Final scores against what we said before kickoff. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favored, unless he made the call himself on a toss-up or one of the week's biggest games. Ranked means in that week's AP poll. Open a game for the full preview as it stood going into the week.
Straight-up picks: did the pick win? Big Al's pick is the team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favor. Big Al and SP+ picks start in Week 8; Elo picks go back to Week 1.
Each column is that week's ranking. Arrows compare the latest poll to the week before. NR means not ranked.
Rankings come from cfbtrack.com. Week 1 is the preseason poll; each later week is the poll released before that week's games.
SP+ vs. payroll is the average, across a conference's teams with an NIL valuation (positive means its teams play better than their payrolls predict). Blue-chip ratio is the share of all its rostered players who were 4- or 5-star recruits.
Ranks are national, out of 138 FBS teams. A top-10 team also counts toward the top 25 and top 40, and everyone outside the last cutoff counts as weak. Open a conference to see its teams.
Seeds 1–4 get first-round byes. Seeds 5–8 host the first round.
The columns on the right show where each team would be seeded under the other ratings. A dash means out.
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor. On the toss-ups and the biggest games, Big Al makes the call himself and says why.
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
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Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Week 9, Sat, Oct 31, 4:00 PM ET, CEFCU Stadium.
Big Al's pick: New Mexico, 88% to win.
| Kickoff | Sat, Oct 31, 4:00 PM ET |
|---|---|
| TV | MW+ |
| Where | CEFCU Stadium |
| Weather | 61°, wind 3 mph |
| Line | New Mexico −14.5, total 42.5 |
| Line movement | Hasn't moved since it opened. |
| Series | San José State leads 16–5–1 |
| Last meeting | San José State 35–28 in 2025 |
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | New Mexico by 18.1 | 90% | 35 |
| PRIME | New Mexico by 18.4 | 91% | |
| Elo | New Mexico | 83% | |
| The line | New Mexico −14.5 | 42.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Wed, Oct 28, 2:21 PM ET.
Big Al's pick: New Mexico. 88% to win
All three ratings favor New Mexico, by 18.1 to 18.4 points, and it isn't close. New Mexico's best matchup is its scoring defense, 1st in points allowed, against San José State's scoring offense at 117th. San José State's way back in is its pass rush, 20th in sack rate, against New Mexico's pass protection at 129th.
| SP+ offense | SP+ defense | |
|---|---|---|
| New Mexico | 26.8 (68th) | 17.6 (20th) |
| San José State | 15.9 (126th) | 27.0 (75th) |
| SUPLEX | SUPLEX allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| New Mexico | 51.5% (102nd) | 37.8% (2nd) |
| San José State | 52.6% (93rd) | 51.7% (53rd) |
| Success rate | Explosive play rate | |
|---|---|---|
| New Mexico | 40.6% (98th) | 12.2% (67th) |
| San José State | 40.2% (101st) | 11.4% (92nd) |
| Success rate allowed | Explosive plays allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| New Mexico | 30.8% (1st) | 9.9% (33rd) |
| San José State | 41.9% (68th) | 10.5% (55th) |
| Yards per carry | Yards per attempt | |
|---|---|---|
| New Mexico | 5.38 (54th) | 7.91 (57th) |
| San José State | 4.64 (108th) | 7.97 (53rd) |
| 3rd down conversion | 3rd downs allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| New Mexico | 39.0% (77th) | 32.0% (22nd) |
| San José State | 33.3% (112th) | 35.4% (46th) |
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; New Mexico and San José State are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 24, 2026.
| Player | Passing success rate (per dropback) | Passing yards |
|---|---|---|
| Toa Faavae, New Mexico | 40.0% (119th) | 619 (138th) |
| Luke Weaver, San José State | 44.6% (60th) | 1,632 (35th) |
| Player | Yards per carry | Rushing success rate |
|---|---|---|
| Scottre Humphrey, New Mexico | 4.6 (213th) | 42.7% (189th) |
| Jabari Bates, San José State | 4.4 (241st) | 32.8% (320th) |
| Player | Explosive catches (16+ yards) | Receiving yards |
|---|---|---|
| Cade Keith, New Mexico | 5 (288th) | 265 (246th) |
| Bailen George, New Mexico | 3 (468th) | 160 (446th) |
| Carson Clark, San José State | 8 (138th) | 555 (36th) |
| Cooper Hoch, San José State | 6 (237th) | 338 (151st) |
| Player | Sacks | INTs | Fumble recoveries | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Lee, San José State | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11th |
| Jayland McGlothen, San José State | 5 | 0 | 0 | 28th |
| Tavian Combs, New Mexico | 0 | 4 | 0 | 63rd |
| Austin Brawley, New Mexico | 0 | 3 | 0 | 186th |
| Darren Agu, New Mexico | 3 | 0 | 0 | 187th |
| Aizik Mahuka, San José State | 3 | 0 | 0 | 210th |
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 24, 2026.
On a neutral field, SP+ has New Mexico 20.6 points better (36th to 114th). PRIME also has New Mexico ahead, by 20.9. Elo, which only sees results, also has New Mexico ahead (35th to 102nd).
| New Mexico | San José State | |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ overall | 9.3 (36th) | -11.3 (114th) |
| SP+ offense | 26.8 (68th) | 15.9 (126th) |
| SP+ defense | 17.6 (20th) | 27.0 (75th) |
| SP+ special teams | 0.0 (68th) | -0.2 (92nd) |
| PRIME net | 7.9 (34th) | -13.0 (120th) |
| PRIME offense | -0.36 (65th) | -10.79 (134th) |
| PRIME defense | 7.68 (20th) | -0.75 (74th) |
| PRIME SOS | -7.6 (119th) | -6.8 (108th) |
| PRIME SOR | 1.3 (35th) | -1.3 (105th) |
| Elo | 1680 (35th) | 1352 (102nd) |
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
New Mexico's offense ranks 53rd in adjusted EPA per play, and the San José State defense it faces ranks 58th in EPA per play allowed. San José State's offense ranks 96th against New Mexico's 15th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge. The biggest edge on the board is New Mexico's run game: 30th in adjusted EPA per rush, against San José State's 80th-ranked defense.
| New Mexico | San José State | |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play (adjusted) | +0.12 (53rd) | +0.06 (96th) |
| EPA per pass (adjusted) | +0.18 (79th) | +0.17 (83rd) |
| EPA per rush (adjusted) | +0.12 (30th) | +0.04 (91st) |
| Success rate (adjusted) | 39.0% (103rd) | 35.8% (130th) |
| Success rate, standard downs (adjusted) | 44.5% (109th) | 44.6% (105th) |
| Success rate, passing downs (adjusted) | 29.9% (81st) | 25.9% (131st) |
| Explosiveness (adjusted) | 1.00 (6th) | 0.94 (64th) |
| Line yards per carry (adjusted) | 2.97 (62nd) | 2.93 (84th) |
| Open-field yards per carry (adjusted) | 1.26 (33rd) | 0.99 (112th) |
| EPA per play allowed (adjusted) | +0.00 (15th) | +0.09 (58th) |
| EPA per pass allowed (adjusted) | +0.13 (33rd) | +0.14 (37th) |
| EPA per rush allowed (adjusted) | −0.01 (13th) | +0.08 (80th) |
| Success rate allowed (adjusted) | 36.7% (16th) | 43.0% (88th) |
| Explosiveness allowed (adjusted) | 0.96 (110th) | 0.91 (26th) |
| Line yards allowed per carry (adjusted) | 2.52 (4th) | 3.00 (82nd) |
| Open-field yards allowed per carry (adjusted) | 1.13 (73rd) | 0.96 (18th) |
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
New Mexico is better running (32nd in EPA per rush) than throwing (96th). San José State's run defense ranks 69th, so that's an edge. San José State is better throwing (69th in EPA per pass) than running (111th). New Mexico's pass defense ranks 2nd, so the defense has the better of it.
| New Mexico | San José State | |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.16 (57th) | +0.09 (88th) |
| EPA per pass | +0.12 (96th) | +0.22 (69th) |
| EPA per rush | +0.18 (32nd) | +0.01 (111th) |
| EPA per 3rd-down play | +0.58 (37th) | +0.34 (100th) |
| EPA per play allowed | −0.18 (1st) | +0.07 (56th) |
| EPA per pass allowed | −0.11 (2nd) | +0.12 (50th) |
| EPA per rush allowed | −0.16 (4th) | +0.07 (69th) |
| EPA per 3rd-down play allowed | +0.15 (12th) | +0.24 (23rd) |
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
New Mexico outscores FBS opponents by 25.7 a game, and San José State is outscored by 2.1. New Mexico's offense ranks 19th in scoring, and the San José State defense it faces ranks 55th in points allowed. San José State's offense ranks 117th against New Mexico's 1st-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is New Mexico's offense against San José State's defense.
| New Mexico | San José State | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored | 37.0 (19th) | 20.4 (117th) |
| Points allowed | 11.3 (1st) | 22.5 (55th) |
Per game, FBS opponents only.
New Mexico's best matchup is its run game: its offense ranks 54th in yards per carry, and San José State's defense ranks 81st in yards per carry allowed. San José State has no clear edge here. Its best is explosive play rate, 92nd, against a defense ranked 33rd in explosive plays allowed.
| New Mexico | San José State | |
|---|---|---|
| Pass yards / game | 150.3 (128th) | 234.1 (64th) |
| Rush yards / game | 208.8 (25th) | 138.8 (102nd) |
| Yards per play | 5.99 (83rd) | 6.06 (74th) |
| Yards per carry | 5.38 (54th) | 4.64 (108th) |
| Yards per attempt | 7.91 (57th) | 7.97 (53rd) |
| Completion % | 55.3% (111th) | 66.4% (47th) |
| Success rate | 40.6% (98th) | 40.2% (101st) |
| Explosive play rate | 12.2% (67th) | 11.4% (92nd) |
| 3rd down conversion | 39.0% (77th) | 33.3% (112th) |
| Sack rate (taken) | 10.9% (129th) | 7.1% (100th) |
| INT rate (thrown) | 3.5% (110th) | 2.5% (80th) |
| SUPLEX | 51.5% (102nd) | 52.6% (93rd) |
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
New Mexico's defense is best placed to keep offenses behind schedule: it ranks 1st in success rate allowed, and San José State's offense is bottom-40 in success rate (101st). That's a mismatch. San José State's defense is best placed to get home: it ranks 20th in sack rate, and New Mexico's offense is bottom-20 at avoiding sacks (129th). That's a mismatch.
| New Mexico | San José State | |
|---|---|---|
| Pass yards allowed / game | 163.3 (12th) | 240.1 (108th) |
| Rush yards allowed / game | 103.0 (8th) | 159.1 (81st) |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.78 (11th) | 5.49 (53rd) |
| Yards per carry allowed | 3.94 (16th) | 5.01 (81st) |
| Yards per attempt allowed | 6.13 (29th) | 6.40 (38th) |
| Success rate allowed | 30.8% (1st) | 41.9% (68th) |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.9% (33rd) | 10.5% (55th) |
| 3rd downs allowed | 32.0% (22nd) | 35.4% (46th) |
| Sack rate (generated) | 9.6% (10th) | 8.5% (20th) |
| INT rate (generated) | 8.1% (1st) | 2.7% (62nd) |
| SUPLEX allowed | 37.8% (2nd) | 51.7% (53rd) |
What opponents managed against them.
New Mexico is +2.6 in turnover margin a game and San José State is 0.0. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 13-point edge for New Mexico. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.
| New Mexico | San José State | |
|---|---|---|
| Interceptions thrown / game | 0.57 (40th) | 0.86 (84th) |
| Fumbles lost / game | 0.14 (3rd) | 0.29 (20th) |
| Giveaways / game | 0.71 (18th) | 1.14 (53rd) |
| Interceptions / game | 2.14 (1st) | 1.00 (22nd) |
| Fumbles recovered / game | 1.14 (2nd) | 0.14 (121st) |
| Takeaways / game | 3.29 (1st) | 1.14 (66th) |
| Turnover margin / game | +2.6 (1st) | 0.0 (66th) |
Per game, from play-by-play.
San José State has the more talented roster (110th in the 247Sports talent composite; New Mexico is 112th). But New Mexico plays further above its talent: +15.2 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to San José State's −5.4.
| New Mexico | San José State | |
|---|---|---|
| Talent composite | 568.2 (112th) | 569.3 (110th) |
| Blue-chip ratio | 3.0% (110th) | 6.0% (92nd) |
| Players on roster | 112 (58th) | 103 (119th) |
| Rated by 247Sports | 67 (106th) | 67 (106th) |
| 5-star players | 0 (37th) | 0 (37th) |
| 4-star players | 2 (106th) | 4 (88th) |
| 3-star players | 57 (86th) | 57 (86th) |
| Below 3-star | 8 (8th) | 6 (20th) |
| 2026 transfers in | 19 (84th) | 21 (67th) |
| Transfer share | 28.4% (73rd) | 31.3% (59th) |
| SP+ vs. talent | +15.2 (8th) | -5.4 (100th) |
| Returning production | 58.2% (44th) | 3.8% (128th) |
| Returning passing production | 74.0% (58th) | -7.6% (129th) |
| Returning rushing production | 71.4% (47th) | 35.5% (74th) |
| Returning receiving production | 43.2% (59th) | 2.7% (129th) |
| 2026 recruiting class (national rank) | 87 (87th) | 129 (129th) |
| Recruiting rank, last four classes | 152.5 (138th) | 115.5 (120th) |
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
New Mexico is +2.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (+1.4). San José State is 0.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (+1.4).
| New Mexico | San José State | |
|---|---|---|
| BAWA (total) | +2.5 (8th) | 0.0 (82nd) |
| Schedule BAWA | +1.4 (18th) | +1.4 (22nd) |
| Roster BAWA | -0.5 (102nd) | -0.9 (126th) |
| Coach BAWA | +1.3 (18th) | -1.0 (108th) |
| Luck BAWA | +0.2 (53rd) | +0.4 (42nd) |
Big Al Wins Added: where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Big Al picks New Mexico, 88% to win. All three ratings favor the same team. New Mexico's best matchup is its scoring defense, 1st in points allowed, against San José State's scoring offense at 117th.
Sat, Oct 31, 4:00 PM ET at CEFCU Stadium, on MW+.
DraftKings has New Mexico −14.5, total 42.5. Big Al picks winners, not bets.
San José State leads 16–5–1. Last meeting: San José State won 35–28 in 2025.
New Mexico's is Toa Faavae (619 passing yards this season); San José State's is Luke Weaver (1,632 passing yards this season).
San José State: Cooper Hoch (WR) hasn't played since Week 6.
Numbers through the games of Oct 24, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
New Mexico and San José State: team pages with every stat and national rank. Compare any two teams.