College football, 2026 season
Data-driven picks for every FBS game + interactive charts you can customize to support any narrative (except Big 12 supremacy).
Picks and projected scores for every FBS game this week.
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The 12-team field if the season ended today.
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Up to 10 legs, one per game: a moneyline, a side against the spread or an over/under. Lines and prices are DraftKings'. When we don't have DraftKings' price on a spread or total, it shows the standard −110. Each leg shows our call on it, from our number (SP+ and PRIME): a Lock, Take or Lean on the side we like, Other side when we'd bet the opposite. Random parlay grabs 3 to 6 games from the list and picks a leg in each, no thinking involved. It's for fun. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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About
Everything on this site starts with someone else's data, and we credit all of it. The projections, picks, rankings and tiers are our own math on top.
| Source | What we use | How often |
|---|---|---|
| CollegeFootballData.com, via the public cfbfastR files | Schedules, final scores, pregame Elo, play-by-play and box score stats, rosters | Usually posted Sunday or Monday morning after games |
| DraftKings lines (via The Odds API and CollegeFootballData.com) | The line and total on each game, and where each opened | Every morning, and before kickoffs Thursday to Saturday |
| Team logos and colors (ESPN's, via CollegeFootballData.com) | The logos on charts, game cards and team pages. They belong to the schools and are used only to identify the teams. | Preseason |
| SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update) | Overall, offense, defense and special teams ratings | Weekly |
| PRIME (primecfb.com) | Net, offense, defense and special teams ratings, strength of schedule, strength of record | Weekly |
| AP Top 25 (via NCAA.com) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sunday afternoons |
| AFCA Coaches Poll (via Yahoo Sports, CBS Sports, SI) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sundays |
| 247Sports | Team talent composite, star counts, 2026 transfer portal rankings | Preseason |
| The NIL Standard | Estimated NIL roster values | Preseason |
| us-atlas (U.S. Census Bureau boundaries) | State shapes for the map | Once |
Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of the 138 FBS teams.
About
Every stat and term on the site, explained like you're five. Or like you're a grown adult who never asked what EPA means and is now too embarrassed to.
The words on the betting side of the site, explained like you've never placed a bet. Good for you.
What the numbers on team pages, charts and head to head mean.
How Big Al's picks, tiers and projections work. The full method is on Sources and methods.
Who's who and how the 12-team field works.
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For where the numbers come from and the exact math, see Sources and methods. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
About
Last updated October 26, 2026.
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Big Al's CFB Lab publishes college football statistics, projections and opinions. Everything here is for information and entertainment. Projections and picks are estimates from public data and can be wrong, sometimes badly.
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About
Last updated October 26, 2026.
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Projected scores come from SP+ offense, defense and special teams, plus 2.5 points for the home team. Cards also show DraftKings' line and total as facts: we pick winners, not bets. Open Details for the full read, or Head to head for every stat.
Final scores against what we said before kickoff. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favored, unless he made the call himself on a toss-up or one of the week's biggest games. Ranked means in that week's AP poll. Open a game for the full preview as it stood going into the week.
Straight-up picks: did the pick win? Big Al's pick is the team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favor. Big Al and SP+ picks start in Week 8; Elo picks go back to Week 1.
Each column is that week's ranking. Arrows compare the latest poll to the week before. NR means not ranked.
Rankings come from cfbtrack.com. Week 1 is the preseason poll; each later week is the poll released before that week's games.
SP+ vs. payroll is the average, across a conference's teams with an NIL valuation (positive means its teams play better than their payrolls predict). Blue-chip ratio is the share of all its rostered players who were 4- or 5-star recruits.
Ranks are national, out of 138 FBS teams. A top-10 team also counts toward the top 25 and top 40, and everyone outside the last cutoff counts as weak. Open a conference to see its teams.
Seeds 1–4 get first-round byes. Seeds 5–8 host the first round.
The columns on the right show where each team would be seeded under the other ratings. A dash means out.
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor. On the toss-ups and the biggest games, Big Al makes the call himself and says why.
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Week 9, Sat, Oct 31, 4:15 PM ET, Rose Bowl.
Big Al's pick: UCLA, 89% to win.
| Kickoff | Sat, Oct 31, 4:15 PM ET |
|---|---|
| TV | BTN |
| Where | Rose Bowl |
| Weather | 61°, wind 2 mph |
| Line | UCLA −22.5, total 44.5 |
| Line movement | Opened UCLA −23.5; moved 1 point toward Nevada. Total opened 48.5, down 4. |
| Series | UCLA leads 1–0 |
| Last meeting | UCLA 58–20 in 2013 |
| UCLA injuries | Nico Iamaleava (QB), out for season |
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | UCLA by 20.0 | 92% | 43 |
| PRIME | UCLA by 16.4 | 88% | |
| Elo | UCLA | 86% | |
| The line | UCLA −22.5, opened −23.5 | 44.5, opened 48.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Wed, Oct 28, 2:21 PM ET.
Big Al's pick: UCLA. 89% to win
All three ratings favor UCLA, by 16.4 to 20.0 points, and it isn't close. UCLA's best matchup is its offensive line, 2nd in line yards per carry, against Nevada's run-stopping front at 112th. Nevada's way back in is its pass protection, 31st in sacks allowed per dropback, against UCLA's pass rush at 67th. We left out the edges built on Iamaleava, who's out.
| SP+ offense | SP+ defense | |
|---|---|---|
| Nevada | 20.9 (107th) | 24.6 (55th) |
| UCLA | 31.5 (38th) | 17.1 (19th) |
| SUPLEX | SUPLEX allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Nevada | 49.5% (113th) | 50.9% (46th) |
| UCLA | 66.5% (11th) | 43.5% (10th) |
| Success rate | Explosive play rate | |
|---|---|---|
| Nevada | 39.9% (106th) | 11.0% (99th) |
| UCLA | 50.2% (13th) | 14.2% (30th) |
| Success rate allowed | Explosive plays allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Nevada | 39.7% (54th) | 9.5% (26th) |
| UCLA | 30.9% (2nd) | 8.6% (10th) |
| Yards per carry | Yards per attempt | |
|---|---|---|
| Nevada | 5.60 (38th) | 5.87 (126th) |
| UCLA | 5.97 (21st) | 9.41 (15th) |
| 3rd down conversion | 3rd downs allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Nevada | 38.4% (81st) | 30.6% (18th) |
| UCLA | 51.7% (9th) | 23.5% (2nd) |
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Nevada and UCLA are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 24, 2026.
| Player | Passing success rate (per dropback) | Passing yards |
|---|---|---|
| Rodney Tisdale Jr., Nevada | 40.3% (111th) | 886 (117th) |
| Iamaleava, UCLA | 39.5% (125th) | 992 (109th) |
| Player | Yards per carry | Rushing success rate |
|---|---|---|
| Dominic Kelley, Nevada | 5.3 (137th) | 49.1% (77th) |
| Wayne Knight, UCLA | 5.9 (73rd) | 54.1% (29th) |
| Player | Explosive catches (16+ yards) | Receiving yards |
|---|---|---|
| Gary Givens III, Nevada | 7 (166th) | 305 (184th) |
| Damien Moun, Nevada | 2 (545th) | 193 (376th) |
| Semaj Morgan, UCLA | 7 (182nd) | 383 (114th) |
| Player | Sacks | INTs | Fumble recoveries | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Woods, UCLA | 3 | 1 | 1 | 31st |
| Samuel Omosigho, UCLA | 4 | 0 | 1 | 32nd |
| Dylan Labarbera, Nevada | 4 | 0 | 0 | 62nd |
| Ta'Shawn James, UCLA | 0 | 4 | 0 | 88th |
| Jeremy Naborne, Nevada | 3 | 0 | 0 | 185th |
| EJ Smith, Nevada | 2 | 0 | 0 | 438th |
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 24, 2026.
On a neutral field, SP+ has UCLA 17.5 points better (17th to 89th). PRIME also has UCLA ahead, by 13.9. Elo, which only sees results, also has UCLA ahead (30th to 79th).
| Nevada | UCLA | |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ overall | -3.1 (89th) | 14.4 (17th) |
| SP+ offense | 20.9 (107th) | 31.5 (38th) |
| SP+ defense | 24.6 (55th) | 17.1 (19th) |
| SP+ special teams | 0.5 (4th) | -0.1 (80th) |
| PRIME net | -0.2 (71st) | 13.7 (17th) |
| PRIME offense | -3.19 (91st) | 3.91 (37th) |
| PRIME defense | 3.82 (39th) | 8.58 (16th) |
| PRIME SOS | -10.6 (137th) | -0.7 (51st) |
| PRIME SOR | -2.2 (120th) | 3.4 (2nd) |
| Elo | 1448 (79th) | 1709 (30th) |
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Nevada's offense ranks 75th in adjusted EPA per play, and the UCLA defense it faces ranks 1st in EPA per play allowed. UCLA's offense ranks 41st against Nevada's 80th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is UCLA's offense against Nevada's defense. The biggest edge on the board is UCLA's offensive line in the run game: 2nd in adjusted line yards per carry, against Nevada's 112th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch. Adjust for opponents and Nevada's offense climbs from 100th to 75th in EPA per play: it has done its work against good defenses.
| Nevada | UCLA | |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play (adjusted) | +0.10 (75th) | +0.15 (41st) |
| EPA per pass (adjusted) | +0.17 (90th) | +0.17 (83rd) |
| EPA per rush (adjusted) | +0.08 (54th) | +0.13 (17th) |
| Success rate (adjusted) | 40.0% (89th) | 46.1% (22nd) |
| Success rate, standard downs (adjusted) | 45.4% (93rd) | 50.6% (21st) |
| Success rate, passing downs (adjusted) | 30.9% (62nd) | 30.4% (71st) |
| Explosiveness (adjusted) | 0.96 (31st) | 0.91 (116th) |
| Line yards per carry (adjusted) | 2.78 (120th) | 3.28 (2nd) |
| Open-field yards per carry (adjusted) | 1.30 (27th) | 1.53 (5th) |
| EPA per play allowed (adjusted) | +0.12 (80th) | −0.07 (1st) |
| EPA per pass allowed (adjusted) | +0.18 (64th) | +0.04 (3rd) |
| EPA per rush allowed (adjusted) | +0.09 (94th) | −0.06 (3rd) |
| Success rate allowed (adjusted) | 39.4% (33rd) | 35.6% (7th) |
| Explosiveness allowed (adjusted) | 0.93 (66th) | 0.89 (7th) |
| Line yards allowed per carry (adjusted) | 3.10 (112th) | 2.76 (18th) |
| Open-field yards allowed per carry (adjusted) | 0.98 (25th) | 0.89 (12th) |
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Nevada is better running (65th in EPA per rush) than throwing (117th). UCLA's run defense ranks 1st, so the defense has the better of it. UCLA is better running (22nd in EPA per rush) than throwing (100th). Nevada's run defense ranks 76th, so that's an edge.
| Nevada | UCLA | |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.07 (100th) | +0.16 (57th) |
| EPA per pass | +0.07 (117th) | +0.11 (100th) |
| EPA per rush | +0.11 (65th) | +0.20 (22nd) |
| EPA per 3rd-down play | +0.54 (47th) | +0.55 (43rd) |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.08 (63rd) | −0.18 (1st) |
| EPA per pass allowed | +0.14 (59th) | −0.11 (2nd) |
| EPA per rush allowed | +0.08 (76th) | −0.21 (1st) |
| EPA per 3rd-down play allowed | +0.28 (34th) | 0.00 (3rd) |
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Nevada outscores FBS opponents by 4.3 a game, and UCLA by 19.1. Nevada's offense ranks 88th in scoring, and the UCLA defense it faces ranks 11th in points allowed. UCLA's offense ranks 36th against Nevada's 53rd-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge.
| Nevada | UCLA | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored | 26.3 (88th) | 34.4 (36th) |
| Points allowed | 22.0 (53rd) | 15.3 (11th) |
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Nevada has no clear edge here. Its best is yards per carry, 38th, against a defense ranked 8th in yards per carry allowed. UCLA's best matchup is its run game: its offense ranks 21st in yards per carry, and Nevada's defense ranks 64th in yards per carry allowed.
| Nevada | UCLA | |
|---|---|---|
| Pass yards / game | 181.0 (116th) | 215.0 (85th) |
| Rush yards / game | 183.1 (48th) | 234.7 (12th) |
| Yards per play | 5.61 (105th) | 7.09 (16th) |
| Yards per carry | 5.60 (38th) | 5.97 (21st) |
| Yards per attempt | 5.87 (126th) | 9.41 (15th) |
| Completion % | 51.4% (123rd) | 71.9% (21st) |
| Success rate | 39.9% (106th) | 50.2% (13th) |
| Explosive play rate | 11.0% (99th) | 14.2% (30th) |
| 3rd down conversion | 38.4% (81st) | 51.7% (9th) |
| Sack rate (taken) | 4.0% (31st) | 5.3% (68th) |
| INT rate (thrown) | 3.7% (118th) | 3.8% (120th) |
| SUPLEX | 49.5% (113th) | 66.5% (11th) |
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Nevada's defense is best placed to get home: it ranks 11th in sack rate, and UCLA's offense is middle of the pack at avoiding sacks (68th). UCLA's defense is best placed to pick off passes: it ranks 10th in interception rate, and Nevada's offense is bottom-20 at avoiding interceptions (118th). That's a mismatch.
| Nevada | UCLA | |
|---|---|---|
| Pass yards allowed / game | 154.1 (6th) | 180.7 (22nd) |
| Rush yards allowed / game | 163.0 (91st) | 101.6 (6th) |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.25 (31st) | 4.33 (2nd) |
| Yards per carry allowed | 4.71 (64th) | 3.54 (8th) |
| Yards per attempt allowed | 6.58 (48th) | 5.29 (6th) |
| Success rate allowed | 39.7% (54th) | 30.9% (2nd) |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.5% (26th) | 8.6% (10th) |
| 3rd downs allowed | 30.6% (18th) | 23.5% (2nd) |
| Sack rate (generated) | 9.4% (11th) | 6.3% (67th) |
| INT rate (generated) | 0.6% (136th) | 5.0% (10th) |
| SUPLEX allowed | 50.9% (46th) | 43.5% (10th) |
What opponents managed against them.
UCLA is +1.6 in turnover margin a game and Nevada is −1.3. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 14-point edge for UCLA. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it. Fumble recoveries are mostly luck, and UCLA's takeaways lean on them (1.4 of 3.1 a game).
| Nevada | UCLA | |
|---|---|---|
| Interceptions thrown / game | 1.14 (121st) | 0.86 (84th) |
| Fumbles lost / game | 0.57 (76th) | 0.71 (99th) |
| Giveaways / game | 1.71 (117th) | 1.57 (107th) |
| Interceptions / game | 0.14 (136th) | 1.71 (3rd) |
| Fumbles recovered / game | 0.29 (94th) | 1.43 (1st) |
| Takeaways / game | 0.43 (135th) | 3.14 (2nd) |
| Turnover margin / game | -1.3 (132nd) | +1.6 (4th) |
Per game, from play-by-play.
UCLA has the more talented roster (25th in the 247Sports talent composite; Nevada is 118th). UCLA also plays further above its talent: +7.4 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Nevada's +4.0.
| Nevada | UCLA | |
|---|---|---|
| Talent composite | 550.0 (118th) | 774.5 (25th) |
| Blue-chip ratio | 3.0% (109th) | 22.1% (35th) |
| Players on roster | 103 (119th) | 120 (17th) |
| Rated by 247Sports | 66 (111th) | 95 (10th) |
| 5-star players | 0 (37th) | 1 (24th) |
| 4-star players | 2 (106th) | 20 (34th) |
| 3-star players | 58 (85th) | 74 (14th) |
| Below 3-star | 6 (20th) | 0 (113th) |
| 2026 transfers in | 18 (97th) | 43 (8th) |
| Transfer share | 27.3% (77th) | 45.3% (25th) |
| SP+ vs. talent | +4.0 (44th) | +7.4 (27th) |
| Returning production | 35.5% (77th) | 57.0% (48th) |
| Returning passing production | -130.0% (134th) | 54.7% (65th) |
| Returning rushing production | -11.8% (126th) | 86.1% (32nd) |
| Returning receiving production | 41.2% (63rd) | 33.8% (73rd) |
| 2026 recruiting class (national rank) | 98 (98th) | 62 (62nd) |
| Recruiting rank, last four classes | 105.0 (111th) | 58.8 (60th) |
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
| Nevada | UCLA | |
|---|---|---|
| Roster value | — () | $26.8M (20th) |
| Roster cost per win | — () | $3.8M (14th) |
| Projected wins per $1M | — () | 0.34 (21st) |
| SP+ vs. payroll | — () | +2.9 (24th) |
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
Nevada is −0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is luck (−1.9). UCLA is +3.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is luck (+1.4). Nevada's record is 1.9 wins worse than its play on bad luck, so it's better than the record says.
| Nevada | UCLA | |
|---|---|---|
| BAWA (total) | -0.5 (89th) | +3.5 (1st) |
| Schedule BAWA | +1.8 (7th) | +0.2 (82nd) |
| Roster BAWA | -0.7 (113th) | +0.9 (19th) |
| Coach BAWA | +0.3 (56th) | +1.0 (24th) |
| Luck BAWA | -1.9 (137th) | +1.4 (5th) |
Big Al Wins Added: where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Big Al picks UCLA, 89% to win. All three ratings favor the same team. UCLA's best matchup is its offensive line, 2nd in line yards per carry, against Nevada's run-stopping front at 112th.
Sat, Oct 31, 4:15 PM ET at Rose Bowl, on BTN.
DraftKings has UCLA −22.5, total 44.5. Big Al picks winners, not bets.
UCLA leads 1–0. Last meeting: UCLA won 58–20 in 2013.
Nevada's is Rodney Tisdale Jr. (886 passing yards this season); UCLA's is Iamaleava (992 passing yards this season).
UCLA: Iamaleava (QB), out for season.
Numbers through the games of Oct 24, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Nevada and UCLA: team pages with every stat and national rank. Compare any two teams.