College football, 2026 season
Data-driven picks for every FBS game + interactive charts you can customize to support any narrative (except Big 12 supremacy).
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About
Everything on this site starts with someone else's data, and we credit all of it. The projections, picks, rankings and tiers are our own math on top.
| Source | What we use | How often |
|---|---|---|
| CollegeFootballData.com, via the public cfbfastR files | Schedules, final scores, pregame Elo, play-by-play and box score stats, rosters | Usually posted Sunday or Monday morning after games |
| DraftKings lines (via The Odds API and CollegeFootballData.com) | The line and total on each game, and where each opened | Every morning, and before kickoffs Thursday to Saturday |
| Team logos and colors (ESPN's, via CollegeFootballData.com) | The logos on charts, game cards and team pages. They belong to the schools and are used only to identify the teams. | Preseason |
| SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update) | Overall, offense, defense and special teams ratings | Weekly |
| PRIME (primecfb.com) | Net, offense, defense and special teams ratings, strength of schedule, strength of record | Weekly |
| AP Top 25 (via NCAA.com) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sunday afternoons |
| AFCA Coaches Poll (via Yahoo Sports, CBS Sports, SI) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sundays |
| 247Sports | Team talent composite, star counts, 2026 transfer portal rankings | Preseason |
| The NIL Standard | Estimated NIL roster values | Preseason |
| us-atlas (U.S. Census Bureau boundaries) | State shapes for the map | Once |
Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of the 138 FBS teams.
About
Every stat and term on the site, explained like you're five. Or like you're a grown adult who never asked what EPA means and is now too embarrassed to.
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What the numbers on team pages, charts and head to head mean.
How Big Al's picks, tiers and projections work. The full method is on Sources and methods.
Who's who and how the 12-team field works.
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For where the numbers come from and the exact math, see Sources and methods. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
About
Last updated October 26, 2026.
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Big Al's CFB Lab publishes college football statistics, projections and opinions. Everything here is for information and entertainment. Projections and picks are estimates from public data and can be wrong, sometimes badly.
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About
Last updated October 26, 2026.
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Projected scores come from SP+ offense, defense and special teams, plus 2.5 points for the home team. Cards also show DraftKings' line and total as facts: we pick winners, not bets. Open Details for the full read, or Head to head for every stat.
Final scores against what we said before kickoff. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favored, unless he made the call himself on a toss-up or one of the week's biggest games. Ranked means in that week's AP poll. Open a game for the full preview as it stood going into the week.
Straight-up picks: did the pick win? Big Al's pick is the team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favor. Big Al and SP+ picks start in Week 8; Elo picks go back to Week 1.
Each column is that week's ranking. Arrows compare the latest poll to the week before. NR means not ranked.
Rankings come from cfbtrack.com. Week 1 is the preseason poll; each later week is the poll released before that week's games.
SP+ vs. payroll is the average, across a conference's teams with an NIL valuation (positive means its teams play better than their payrolls predict). Blue-chip ratio is the share of all its rostered players who were 4- or 5-star recruits.
Ranks are national, out of 138 FBS teams. A top-10 team also counts toward the top 25 and top 40, and everyone outside the last cutoff counts as weak. Open a conference to see its teams.
Seeds 1–4 get first-round byes. Seeds 5–8 host the first round.
The columns on the right show where each team would be seeded under the other ratings. A dash means out.
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor. On the toss-ups and the biggest games, Big Al makes the call himself and says why.
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
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Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
UAB at South Florida
Week 9, Sat, Oct 31, 12:00 PM ET, Raymond James Stadium.
Big Al's pick: South Florida, 77% to win.
| Kickoff | Sat, Oct 31, 12:00 PM ET |
|---|---|
| TV | ESPNU |
| Where | Raymond James Stadium |
| Weather | 84°, cloudy, wind 8 mph |
| Line | South Florida −7.5, total 42.5 |
| Line movement | Opened South Florida −9.5; moved 2 points toward UAB. Total opened 46.5, down 4. |
| Series | South Florida leads 3–2 |
| Last meeting | South Florida 48–18 in 2025 |
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | South Florida by 15.1 | 86% | 50 |
| PRIME | South Florida by 5.0 | 64% | |
| Elo | South Florida | 83% | |
| The line | South Florida −7.5, opened −9.5 | 42.5, opened 46.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Wed, Oct 28, 2:21 PM ET.
Big Al's pick: South Florida. 78% to win
All three ratings favor South Florida, by 5.0 to 15.1 points. South Florida's best matchup is its defense, 22nd in EPA per play allowed, against UAB's offense at 122nd. UAB's way back in is its pass defense, 27th in EPA per pass allowed, against South Florida's passing game at 113th.
| SP+ offense | SP+ defense | |
|---|---|---|
| UAB | 20.0 (109th) | 30.5 (103rd) |
| South Florida | 26.5 (72nd) | 24.5 (54th) |
| SUPLEX | SUPLEX allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| UAB | 55.1% (78th) | 50.6% (44th) |
| South Florida | — | 52.3% (55th) |
| Success rate | Explosive play rate | |
|---|---|---|
| UAB | 45.2% (57th) | 10.5% (110th) |
| South Florida | — | — |
| Success rate allowed | Explosive plays allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| UAB | 40.6% (57th) | 8.8% (14th) |
| South Florida | 42.5% (74th) | 10.3% (50th) |
| Yards per carry | Yards per attempt | |
|---|---|---|
| UAB | 4.90 (86th) | 8.44 (39th) |
| South Florida | — | — |
| 3rd down conversion | 3rd downs allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| UAB | 45.4% (35th) | 36.7% (53rd) |
| South Florida | — | 39.0% (74th) |
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; UAB and South Florida are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 24, 2026.
| Player | Passing success rate (per dropback) | Passing yards |
|---|---|---|
| Ryder Burton, UAB | 37.3% (143rd) | 1,169 (94th) |
| Player | Yards per carry | Rushing success rate |
|---|---|---|
| Roderick Robinson II, UAB | 4.3 (255th) | 46.5% (116th) |
| D.J. Crowther, South Florida | 5.0 (166th) | 49.5% (73rd) |
| Player | Explosive catches (16+ yards) | Receiving yards |
|---|---|---|
| C.J. Smith, UAB | 10 (88th) | 350 (136th) |
| EJ Reid, UAB | 1 (631st) | 164 (441st) |
| Player | Sacks | INTs | Fumble recoveries | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delvon Gulley, UAB | 0 | 2 | 1 | 230th |
| Marlin Dean, UAB | 2 | 0 | 1 | 231st |
| Tylin Jackson, UAB | 3 | 0 | 0 | 232nd |
| C.J. Hicks, South Florida | 1 | 0 | 2 | 214th |
| Michael Williams II, South Florida | 3 | 0 | 0 | 215th |
| Asani Redwood, South Florida | 2 | 0 | 0 | 507th |
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 24, 2026.
On a neutral field, SP+ has South Florida 12.6 points better (63rd to 110th). PRIME also has South Florida ahead, by 2.5. Elo, which only sees results, also has South Florida ahead (46th to 91st).
| UAB | South Florida | |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ overall | -10.4 (110th) | 2.2 (63rd) |
| SP+ offense | 20.0 (109th) | 26.5 (72nd) |
| SP+ defense | 30.5 (103rd) | 24.5 (54th) |
| SP+ special teams | 0.1 (54th) | 0.1 (54th) |
| PRIME net | -6.7 (97th) | -4.2 (88th) |
| PRIME offense | -4.74 (102nd) | -6.53 (113th) |
| PRIME defense | -1.54 (86th) | 2.34 (50th) |
| PRIME SOS | -6.2 (102nd) | -8.4 (127th) |
| PRIME SOR | -0.5 (84th) | 0.1 (66th) |
| Elo | 1396 (91st) | 1613 (46th) |
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
UAB's offense ranks 122nd in adjusted EPA per play, and the South Florida defense it faces ranks 22nd in EPA per play allowed. South Florida's offense ranks 115th against UAB's 50th-ranked defense. Both defenses have the edge on the offenses they face. The biggest edge on the board is South Florida's efficiency: 72nd in adjusted success rate, against UAB's 103rd-ranked defense. Adjust for opponents and South Florida's offense falls from 71st to 115th in EPA per play: a lot of that came against soft defenses.
| UAB | South Florida | |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play (adjusted) | +0.01 (122nd) | +0.04 (115th) |
| EPA per pass (adjusted) | +0.08 (128th) | +0.12 (113th) |
| EPA per rush (adjusted) | +0.04 (94th) | +0.03 (103rd) |
| Success rate (adjusted) | 40.2% (84th) | 41.4% (72nd) |
| Success rate, standard downs (adjusted) | 44.6% (108th) | 49.0% (38th) |
| Success rate, passing downs (adjusted) | 31.5% (48th) | 29.0% (102nd) |
| Explosiveness (adjusted) | 0.93 (78th) | 0.91 (111th) |
| Line yards per carry (adjusted) | 2.94 (78th) | 2.78 (121st) |
| Open-field yards per carry (adjusted) | 1.01 (106th) | 0.91 (126th) |
| EPA per play allowed (adjusted) | +0.07 (50th) | +0.04 (22nd) |
| EPA per pass allowed (adjusted) | +0.12 (27th) | +0.13 (34th) |
| EPA per rush allowed (adjusted) | +0.08 (79th) | −0.01 (16th) |
| Success rate allowed (adjusted) | 44.4% (103rd) | 42.3% (77th) |
| Explosiveness allowed (adjusted) | 0.93 (63rd) | 0.87 (1st) |
| Line yards allowed per carry (adjusted) | 3.16 (121st) | 2.92 (57th) |
| Open-field yards allowed per carry (adjusted) | 0.98 (28th) | 1.11 (61st) |
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
UAB is better running (68th in EPA per rush) than throwing (130th). South Florida's run defense ranks 20th, so the defense has the better of it. South Florida is better running (60th in EPA per rush) than throwing (87th). UAB's run defense ranks 76th.
| UAB | South Florida | |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.03 (113th) | +0.13 (71st) |
| EPA per pass | −0.04 (130th) | +0.17 (87th) |
| EPA per rush | +0.10 (68th) | +0.12 (60th) |
| EPA per 3rd-down play | +0.32 (102nd) | +0.39 (91st) |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.04 (42nd) | +0.01 (28th) |
| EPA per pass allowed | +0.06 (31st) | +0.11 (45th) |
| EPA per rush allowed | +0.08 (76th) | −0.06 (20th) |
| EPA per 3rd-down play allowed | +0.39 (68th) | +0.37 (58th) |
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
UAB is outscored by 1.3 a game, and South Florida by 11.5. UAB's offense ranks 103rd in scoring, and the South Florida defense it faces ranks 10th in points allowed. South Florida's offense ranks 83rd against UAB's 73rd-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge.
| UAB | South Florida | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored | 23.3 (103rd) | 26.6 (83rd) |
| Points allowed | 24.6 (73rd) | 15.1 (10th) |
Per game, FBS opponents only.
UAB's best matchup is third downs: its offense ranks 35th in 3rd down conversion rate, and South Florida's defense ranks 74th in 3rd down conversions allowed.
| UAB | South Florida | |
|---|---|---|
| Pass yards / game | 171.3 (122nd) | — () |
| Rush yards / game | 187.4 (45th) | — () |
| Yards per play | 5.85 (92nd) | — () |
| Yards per carry | 4.90 (86th) | — () |
| Yards per attempt | 8.44 (39th) | — () |
| Completion % | 64.8% (62nd) | — () |
| Success rate | 45.2% (57th) | — () |
| Explosive play rate | 10.5% (110th) | — () |
| 3rd down conversion | 45.4% (35th) | — () |
| Sack rate (taken) | 11.8% (130th) | — () |
| INT rate (thrown) | 3.5% (111th) | — () |
| SUPLEX | 55.1% (78th) | — () |
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
South Florida's defense is best placed to get home: it ranks 62nd in sack rate, and UAB's offense is bottom-20 at avoiding sacks (130th). That's a mismatch.
| UAB | South Florida | |
|---|---|---|
| Pass yards allowed / game | 128.9 (2nd) | 187.0 (31st) |
| Rush yards allowed / game | 199.7 (123rd) | 156.1 (77th) |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.94 (15th) | 5.48 (52nd) |
| Yards per carry allowed | 5.05 (84th) | 4.59 (51st) |
| Yards per attempt allowed | 5.13 (3rd) | 7.00 (66th) |
| Success rate allowed | 40.6% (57th) | 42.5% (74th) |
| Explosive plays allowed | 8.8% (14th) | 10.3% (50th) |
| 3rd downs allowed | 36.7% (53rd) | 39.0% (74th) |
| Sack rate (generated) | 6.9% (50th) | 6.5% (62nd) |
| INT rate (generated) | 2.8% (59th) | 1.1% (123rd) |
| SUPLEX allowed | 50.6% (44th) | 52.3% (55th) |
What opponents managed against them.
| UAB | South Florida | |
|---|---|---|
| Interceptions thrown / game | 0.71 (59th) | — () |
| Fumbles lost / game | 0.71 (99th) | — () |
| Giveaways / game | 1.43 (88th) | — () |
| Interceptions / game | 0.71 (64th) | 0.29 (119th) |
| Fumbles recovered / game | 0.71 (22nd) | 0.00 (131st) |
| Takeaways / game | 1.43 (39th) | 0.29 (137th) |
| Turnover margin / game | 0.0 (66th) | — () |
Per game, from play-by-play.
South Florida has the more talented roster (52nd in the 247Sports talent composite; UAB is 92nd). South Florida also plays further above its talent: −0.4 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to UAB's −6.9.
| UAB | South Florida | |
|---|---|---|
| Talent composite | 606.2 (92nd) | 703.8 (52nd) |
| Blue-chip ratio | 6.0% (92nd) | 12.9% (57th) |
| Players on roster | 106 (99th) | 113 (51st) |
| Rated by 247Sports | 67 (106th) | 93 (14th) |
| 5-star players | 0 (37th) | 1 (24th) |
| 4-star players | 4 (88th) | 11 (53rd) |
| 3-star players | 57 (86th) | 77 (10th) |
| Below 3-star | 6 (20th) | 4 (38th) |
| 2026 transfers in | 39 (14th) | 44 (6th) |
| Transfer share | 58.2% (13th) | 47.3% (22nd) |
| SP+ vs. talent | -6.9 (110th) | -0.4 (66th) |
| Returning production | 79.6% (13th) | 12.6% (117th) |
| Returning passing production | 100.0% (11th) | 5.8% (91st) |
| Returning rushing production | 63.3% (53rd) | -0.7% (118th) |
| Returning receiving production | 73.5% (16th) | 23.8% (96th) |
| 2026 recruiting class (national rank) | 135 (133rd) | 90 (90th) |
| Recruiting rank, last four classes | 112.5 (116th) | 70.2 (71st) |
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
UAB is +0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (−1.1). South Florida is +1.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (+1.7). UAB's record is running 1.1 wins ahead of its play on luck alone, so it's not as good as the record says.
| UAB | South Florida | |
|---|---|---|
| BAWA (total) | +0.5 (57th) | +1.5 (30th) |
| Schedule BAWA | +0.8 (53rd) | +1.7 (13th) |
| Roster BAWA | -0.2 (84th) | +0.2 (60th) |
| Coach BAWA | -1.1 (115th) | +0.0 (65th) |
| Luck BAWA | +1.1 (9th) | -0.3 (90th) |
Big Al Wins Added: where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Big Al picks South Florida, 78% to win. All three ratings favor the same team. South Florida's best matchup is its defense, 22nd in EPA per play allowed, against UAB's offense at 122nd.
Sat, Oct 31, 12:00 PM ET at Raymond James Stadium, on ESPNU.
DraftKings has South Florida −7.5, total 42.5. Big Al picks winners, not bets.
South Florida leads 3–2. Last meeting: South Florida won 48–18 in 2025.
Numbers through the games of Oct 24, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
UAB and South Florida: team pages with every stat and national rank. Compare any two teams.