College football, 2026 season
Data-driven picks for every FBS game + interactive charts you can customize to support any narrative (except Big 12 supremacy).
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About
Everything on this site starts with someone else's data, and we credit all of it. The projections, picks, rankings and tiers are our own math on top.
| Source | What we use | How often |
|---|---|---|
| CollegeFootballData.com, via the public cfbfastR files | Schedules, final scores, pregame Elo, play-by-play and box score stats, rosters | Usually posted Sunday or Monday morning after games |
| DraftKings lines (via The Odds API and CollegeFootballData.com) | The line and total on each game, and where each opened | Every morning, and before kickoffs Thursday to Saturday |
| Team logos and colors (ESPN's, via CollegeFootballData.com) | The logos on charts, game cards and team pages. They belong to the schools and are used only to identify the teams. | Preseason |
| SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update) | Overall, offense, defense and special teams ratings | Weekly |
| PRIME (primecfb.com) | Net, offense, defense and special teams ratings, strength of schedule, strength of record | Weekly |
| AP Top 25 (via NCAA.com) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sunday afternoons |
| AFCA Coaches Poll (via Yahoo Sports, CBS Sports, SI) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sundays |
| 247Sports | Team talent composite, star counts, 2026 transfer portal rankings | Preseason |
| The NIL Standard | Estimated NIL roster values | Preseason |
| us-atlas (U.S. Census Bureau boundaries) | State shapes for the map | Once |
Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of the 138 FBS teams.
About
Every stat and term on the site, explained like you're five. Or like you're a grown adult who never asked what EPA means and is now too embarrassed to.
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What the numbers on team pages, charts and head to head mean.
How Big Al's picks, tiers and projections work. The full method is on Sources and methods.
Who's who and how the 12-team field works.
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For where the numbers come from and the exact math, see Sources and methods. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
About
Last updated October 26, 2026.
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Big Al's CFB Lab publishes college football statistics, projections and opinions. Everything here is for information and entertainment. Projections and picks are estimates from public data and can be wrong, sometimes badly.
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Last updated October 26, 2026.
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Projected scores come from SP+ offense, defense and special teams, plus 2.5 points for the home team. Cards also show DraftKings' line and total as facts: we pick winners, not bets. Open Details for the full read, or Head to head for every stat.
Final scores against what we said before kickoff. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favored, unless he made the call himself on a toss-up or one of the week's biggest games. Ranked means in that week's AP poll. Open a game for the full preview as it stood going into the week.
Straight-up picks: did the pick win? Big Al's pick is the team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favor. Big Al and SP+ picks start in Week 8; Elo picks go back to Week 1.
Each column is that week's ranking. Arrows compare the latest poll to the week before. NR means not ranked.
Rankings come from cfbtrack.com. Week 1 is the preseason poll; each later week is the poll released before that week's games.
SP+ vs. payroll is the average, across a conference's teams with an NIL valuation (positive means its teams play better than their payrolls predict). Blue-chip ratio is the share of all its rostered players who were 4- or 5-star recruits.
Ranks are national, out of 138 FBS teams. A top-10 team also counts toward the top 25 and top 40, and everyone outside the last cutoff counts as weak. Open a conference to see its teams.
Seeds 1–4 get first-round byes. Seeds 5–8 host the first round.
The columns on the right show where each team would be seeded under the other ratings. A dash means out.
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor. On the toss-ups and the biggest games, Big Al makes the call himself and says why.
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
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Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Florida Atlantic at North Texas
Week 9, Thu, Oct 29, 7:30 PM ET, DATCU Stadium.
Big Al's pick: North Texas, 79% to win.
| Kickoff | Thu, Oct 29, 7:30 PM ET |
|---|---|
| TV | ESPN |
| Where | DATCU Stadium |
| Weather | 77°, cloudy, wind 7 mph |
| Line | North Texas −13.5, total 77.5 |
| Line movement | Opened North Texas −12.5; moved 1 point toward North Texas. Total opened 69.5, up 8. |
| Series | Florida Atlantic leads 8–7 |
| Last meeting | North Texas 41–37 in 2024 |
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | North Texas by 5.3 | 65% | 79 |
| PRIME | North Texas by 11.4 | 79% | |
| Elo | North Texas | 94% | |
| The line | North Texas −13.5, opened −12.5 | 77.5, opened 69.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Wed, Oct 28, 2:21 PM ET.
Big Al's pick: North Texas. 79% to win
All three ratings favor North Texas, by 5.3 to 11.4 points. North Texas' best matchup is its offense, 6th in yards per play, against Florida Atlantic's defense at 136th. Florida Atlantic's way back in is its scoring offense, 17th in points per game, against North Texas' scoring defense at 116th.
| SP+ offense | SP+ defense | |
|---|---|---|
| Florida Atlantic | 30.1 (44th) | 33.9 (123rd) |
| North Texas | 33.5 (24th) | 33.7 (119th) |
| SUPLEX | SUPLEX allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Florida Atlantic | 53.4% (88th) | 61.1% (114th) |
| North Texas | 68.7% (6th) | 59.6% (107th) |
| Success rate | Explosive play rate | |
|---|---|---|
| Florida Atlantic | 47.3% (31st) | 9.9% (116th) |
| North Texas | 50.1% (15th) | 15.3% (15th) |
| Success rate allowed | Explosive plays allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Florida Atlantic | 45.2% (105th) | 14.7% (125th) |
| North Texas | 43.3% (85th) | 12.7% (100th) |
| Yards per carry | Yards per attempt | |
|---|---|---|
| Florida Atlantic | 4.16 (125th) | 7.87 (59th) |
| North Texas | 5.72 (33rd) | 9.50 (12th) |
| 3rd down conversion | 3rd downs allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Florida Atlantic | 50.0% (13th) | 41.9% (95th) |
| North Texas | 46.8% (28th) | 38.2% (66th) |
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Florida Atlantic and North Texas are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 24, 2026.
| Player | Passing success rate (per dropback) | Passing yards |
|---|---|---|
| Tayven Jackson, North Texas | 56.0% (2nd) | 2,194 (7th) |
| Player | Yards per carry | Rushing success rate |
|---|---|---|
| Ethan Ervin, Florida Atlantic | 4.2 (269th) | 41.4% (213th) |
| Jahiem White, North Texas | 7.4 (17th) | 50.9% (57th) |
| Player | Explosive catches (16+ yards) | Receiving yards |
|---|---|---|
| Branden Hoch, Florida Atlantic | 2 (525th) | 115 (550th) |
| Tucker Holloway, Florida Atlantic | 3 (442nd) | 112 (559th) |
| Justin Stevenson, North Texas | 13 (36th) | 662 (17th) |
| Corri Milliner, North Texas | 9 (102nd) | 325 (165th) |
| Player | Sacks | INTs | Fumble recoveries | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zakye Barker, North Texas | 1 | 0 | 2 | 191st |
| Bo Simpson-Nealy, Florida Atlantic | 0 | 2 | 0 | 333rd |
| Brenden Reese, North Texas | 1 | 0 | 1 | 447th |
| Davion Rhodes, North Texas | 1 | 0 | 1 | 448th |
| Ahlston Ware, Florida Atlantic | 0 | 0 | 1 | 787th |
| Chris Tooley, Florida Atlantic | 0 | 1 | 0 | 788th |
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 24, 2026.
On a neutral field, SP+ has North Texas 2.8 points better (72nd to 90th). PRIME also has North Texas ahead, by 8.9. Elo, which only sees results, also has North Texas ahead (36th to 117th).
| Florida Atlantic | North Texas | |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ overall | -3.4 (90th) | -0.6 (72nd) |
| SP+ offense | 30.1 (44th) | 33.5 (24th) |
| SP+ defense | 33.9 (123rd) | 33.7 (119th) |
| SP+ special teams | 0.3 (28th) | -0.4 (113th) |
| PRIME net | -6.2 (95th) | 2.7 (57th) |
| PRIME offense | 1.70 (48th) | 8.89 (19th) |
| PRIME defense | -8.61 (131st) | -6.07 (115th) |
| PRIME SOS | -7.3 (117th) | -3.1 (76th) |
| PRIME SOR | 0.3 (58th) | 1.0 (41st) |
| Elo | 1239 (117th) | 1675 (36th) |
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Florida Atlantic's offense ranks 49th in adjusted EPA per play, and the North Texas defense it faces ranks 70th in EPA per play allowed. North Texas' offense ranks 10th against Florida Atlantic's 131st-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is North Texas' offense against Florida Atlantic's defense. The biggest edge on the board is North Texas' big plays: 17th in adjusted explosiveness, against Florida Atlantic's 138th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch. Adjust for opponents and Florida Atlantic's offense falls from 25th to 49th in EPA per play: a lot of that came against soft defenses.
| Florida Atlantic | North Texas | |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play (adjusted) | +0.13 (49th) | +0.22 (10th) |
| EPA per pass (adjusted) | +0.23 (40th) | +0.32 (10th) |
| EPA per rush (adjusted) | +0.06 (70th) | +0.10 (44th) |
| Success rate (adjusted) | 44.2% (36th) | 46.7% (18th) |
| Success rate, standard downs (adjusted) | 48.3% (42nd) | 50.8% (18th) |
| Success rate, passing downs (adjusted) | 33.2% (20th) | 32.6% (25th) |
| Explosiveness (adjusted) | 0.94 (49th) | 0.97 (17th) |
| Line yards per carry (adjusted) | 2.83 (109th) | 2.99 (54th) |
| Open-field yards per carry (adjusted) | 0.82 (138th) | 1.31 (25th) |
| EPA per play allowed (adjusted) | +0.23 (131st) | +0.11 (70th) |
| EPA per pass allowed (adjusted) | +0.24 (96th) | +0.28 (122nd) |
| EPA per rush allowed (adjusted) | +0.21 (138th) | +0.04 (48th) |
| Success rate allowed (adjusted) | 44.0% (100th) | 43.1% (92nd) |
| Explosiveness allowed (adjusted) | 1.03 (138th) | 0.92 (34th) |
| Line yards allowed per carry (adjusted) | 3.06 (101st) | 2.82 (27th) |
| Open-field yards allowed per carry (adjusted) | 1.90 (138th) | 1.26 (100th) |
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Florida Atlantic is about as good throwing (31st in EPA per pass) as running (44th). North Texas is better throwing (2nd in EPA per pass) than running (22nd). Florida Atlantic's pass defense ranks 83rd, so that's a mismatch. On third down, North Texas has the edge: its offense ranks 17th in EPA per third-down play, and the defense it faces ranks 106th.
| Florida Atlantic | North Texas | |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.24 (25th) | +0.37 (2nd) |
| EPA per pass | +0.36 (31st) | +0.55 (2nd) |
| EPA per rush | +0.15 (44th) | +0.20 (22nd) |
| EPA per 3rd-down play | +0.73 (12th) | +0.66 (17th) |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.26 (130th) | +0.12 (87th) |
| EPA per pass allowed | +0.21 (83rd) | +0.41 (130th) |
| EPA per rush allowed | +0.36 (137th) | 0.00 (45th) |
| EPA per 3rd-down play allowed | +0.52 (106th) | +0.28 (34th) |
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Florida Atlantic outscores FBS opponents by 3.3 a game, and North Texas by 12.5. Florida Atlantic's offense ranks 17th in scoring, and the North Texas defense it faces ranks 116th in points allowed. North Texas' offense ranks 2nd against Florida Atlantic's 129th-ranked defense. Both offenses have the edge on the defenses they face.
| Florida Atlantic | North Texas | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored | 37.3 (17th) | 43.1 (2nd) |
| Points allowed | 34.0 (129th) | 30.6 (116th) |
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Florida Atlantic's best matchup is staying on schedule: its offense ranks 31st in success rate, and North Texas' defense ranks 85th in success rate allowed. North Texas' best matchup is big plays: its offense ranks 15th in explosive play rate, and Florida Atlantic's defense ranks 125th in explosive plays allowed. That's a mismatch.
| Florida Atlantic | North Texas | |
|---|---|---|
| Pass yards / game | 323.7 (5th) | 347.6 (2nd) |
| Rush yards / game | 137.9 (103rd) | 190.3 (39th) |
| Yards per play | 6.06 (75th) | 7.61 (6th) |
| Yards per carry | 4.16 (125th) | 5.72 (33rd) |
| Yards per attempt | 7.87 (59th) | 9.50 (12th) |
| Completion % | 69.8% (31st) | 69.5% (32nd) |
| Success rate | 47.3% (31st) | 50.1% (15th) |
| Explosive play rate | 9.9% (116th) | 15.3% (15th) |
| 3rd down conversion | 50.0% (13th) | 46.8% (28th) |
| Sack rate (taken) | 4.3% (37th) | 2.3% (8th) |
| INT rate (thrown) | 1.4% (33rd) | 1.9% (49th) |
| SUPLEX | 53.4% (88th) | 68.7% (6th) |
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Florida Atlantic's defense is best placed to pick off passes: it ranks 18th in interception rate, and North Texas' offense is above average at avoiding interceptions (49th). North Texas' defense is best placed to stop the run: it ranks 76th in yards per carry allowed, and Florida Atlantic's offense is bottom-20 in yards per carry (125th).
| Florida Atlantic | North Texas | |
|---|---|---|
| Pass yards allowed / game | 187.9 (32nd) | 204.1 (54th) |
| Rush yards allowed / game | 264.4 (137th) | 185.1 (111th) |
| Yards per play allowed | 7.38 (136th) | 6.18 (89th) |
| Yards per carry allowed | 6.93 (137th) | 4.89 (76th) |
| Yards per attempt allowed | 8.59 (113th) | 8.77 (116th) |
| Success rate allowed | 45.2% (105th) | 43.3% (85th) |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.7% (125th) | 12.7% (100th) |
| 3rd downs allowed | 41.9% (95th) | 38.2% (66th) |
| Sack rate (generated) | 5.6% (80th) | 7.4% (42nd) |
| INT rate (generated) | 3.9% (18th) | 3.1% (47th) |
| SUPLEX allowed | 61.1% (114th) | 59.6% (107th) |
What opponents managed against them.
Neither team has a real turnover edge: Florida Atlantic is +0.3 a game and North Texas +0.3. Fumble recoveries are mostly luck, and North Texas' takeaways lean on them (0.7 of 1.4 a game).
| Florida Atlantic | North Texas | |
|---|---|---|
| Interceptions thrown / game | 0.57 (40th) | 0.71 (59th) |
| Fumbles lost / game | 0.43 (53rd) | 0.43 (53rd) |
| Giveaways / game | 1.00 (37th) | 1.14 (53rd) |
| Interceptions / game | 0.86 (45th) | 0.71 (64th) |
| Fumbles recovered / game | 0.43 (68th) | 0.71 (22nd) |
| Takeaways / game | 1.29 (54th) | 1.43 (39th) |
| Turnover margin / game | +0.3 (50th) | +0.3 (50th) |
Per game, from play-by-play.
North Texas has the more talented roster (95th in the 247Sports talent composite; Florida Atlantic is 98th). North Texas also plays further above its talent: +3.2 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Florida Atlantic's +0.9.
| Florida Atlantic | North Texas | |
|---|---|---|
| Talent composite | 593.4 (98th) | 602.1 (95th) |
| Blue-chip ratio | 2.9% (112th) | 9.8% (71st) |
| Players on roster | 115 (40th) | 106 (99th) |
| Rated by 247Sports | 68 (103rd) | 61 (118th) |
| 5-star players | 0 (37th) | 0 (37th) |
| 4-star players | 2 (106th) | 6 (73rd) |
| 3-star players | 60 (74th) | 53 (99th) |
| Below 3-star | 6 (20th) | 2 (68th) |
| 2026 transfers in | 30 (31st) | 49 (4th) |
| Transfer share | 44.1% (27th) | 80.3% (1st) |
| SP+ vs. talent | +0.9 (61st) | +3.2 (49th) |
| Returning production | 68.4% (26th) | 2.5% (129th) |
| Returning passing production | 93.4% (38th) | 2.4% (105th) |
| Returning rushing production | 106.8% (13th) | 2.8% (111th) |
| Returning receiving production | 47.5% (51st) | 2.4% (131st) |
| 2026 recruiting class (national rank) | 130 (130th) | 137 (135th) |
| Recruiting rank, last four classes | 94.0 (93rd) | 104.5 (110th) |
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Florida Atlantic is +1.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (+1.3). North Texas is +1.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is luck (+1.1). North Texas' record is running 1.1 wins ahead of its play on luck alone, so it's not as good as the record says.
| Florida Atlantic | North Texas | |
|---|---|---|
| BAWA (total) | +1.5 (30th) | +1.5 (30th) |
| Schedule BAWA | +1.3 (25th) | +0.6 (66th) |
| Roster BAWA | -0.3 (92nd) | -0.5 (100th) |
| Coach BAWA | -0.2 (76th) | +0.3 (55th) |
| Luck BAWA | +0.6 (30th) | +1.1 (9th) |
Big Al Wins Added: where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Big Al picks North Texas, 79% to win. All three ratings favor the same team. North Texas' best matchup is its offense, 6th in yards per play, against Florida Atlantic's defense at 136th.
Thu, Oct 29, 7:30 PM ET at DATCU Stadium, on ESPN.
DraftKings has North Texas −13.5, total 77.5. Big Al picks winners, not bets.
Florida Atlantic leads 8–7. Last meeting: North Texas won 41–37 in 2024.
Florida Atlantic: Antonio Johnson (TE) hasn't played since Week 4.
Numbers through the games of Oct 24, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Florida Atlantic and North Texas: team pages with every stat and national rank. Compare any two teams.