College football, 2026 season
Data-driven picks for every FBS game + interactive charts you can customize to support any narrative (except Big 12 supremacy).
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Everything on this site starts with someone else's data, and we credit all of it. The projections, picks, rankings and tiers are our own math on top.
| Source | What we use | How often |
|---|---|---|
| CollegeFootballData.com, via the public cfbfastR files | Schedules, final scores, pregame Elo, play-by-play and box score stats, rosters | Usually posted Sunday or Monday morning after games |
| DraftKings lines (via The Odds API and CollegeFootballData.com) | The line and total on each game, and where each opened | Every morning, and before kickoffs Thursday to Saturday |
| Team logos and colors (ESPN's, via CollegeFootballData.com) | The logos on charts, game cards and team pages. They belong to the schools and are used only to identify the teams. | Preseason |
| SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update) | Overall, offense, defense and special teams ratings | Weekly |
| PRIME (primecfb.com) | Net, offense, defense and special teams ratings, strength of schedule, strength of record | Weekly |
| AP Top 25 (via NCAA.com) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sunday afternoons |
| AFCA Coaches Poll (via Yahoo Sports, CBS Sports, SI) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sundays |
| 247Sports | Team talent composite, star counts, 2026 transfer portal rankings | Preseason |
| The NIL Standard | Estimated NIL roster values | Preseason |
| us-atlas (U.S. Census Bureau boundaries) | State shapes for the map | Once |
Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of the 138 FBS teams.
About
Every stat and term on the site, explained like you're five. Or like you're a grown adult who never asked what EPA means and is now too embarrassed to.
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What the numbers on team pages, charts and head to head mean.
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Who's who and how the 12-team field works.
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About
Last updated October 26, 2026.
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Big Al's CFB Lab publishes college football statistics, projections and opinions. Everything here is for information and entertainment. Projections and picks are estimates from public data and can be wrong, sometimes badly.
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Last updated October 26, 2026.
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Projected scores come from SP+ offense, defense and special teams, plus 2.5 points for the home team. Cards also show DraftKings' line and total as facts: we pick winners, not bets. Open Details for the full read, or Head to head for every stat.
"Off by" is how far the final margin landed from the projected margin.
Straight-up picks: did the pick win? Big Al's pick is the team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favor. Big Al and SP+ picks start in Week 8; Elo picks go back to Week 1.
Each column is that week's ranking. Arrows compare the latest poll to the week before. NR means not ranked.
Rankings come from cfbtrack.com. Week 1 is the preseason poll; each later week is the poll released before that week's games.
SP+ vs. payroll is the average, across a conference's teams with an NIL valuation (positive means its teams play better than their payrolls predict). Blue-chip ratio is the share of all its rostered players who were 4- or 5-star recruits.
Ranks are national, out of 138 FBS teams. A top-10 team also counts toward the top 25 and top 40, and everyone outside the last cutoff counts as weak. Open a conference to see its teams.
Seeds 1–4 get first-round byes. Seeds 5–8 host the first round.
The columns on the right show where each team would be seeded under the other ratings. A dash means out.
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
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Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Notre Dame vs. Navy
Week 9, Sat, Oct 31, 12:00 PM ET, Gillette Stadium.
Big Al's pick: Notre Dame, 97% to win.
| Kickoff | Sat, Oct 31, 12:00 PM ET |
|---|---|
| TV | ABC |
| Where | Gillette Stadium (neutral site) |
| Weather | 51°, wind 9 mph |
| Line | Notre Dame −30.5, total 56.5 |
| Line movement | Opened Notre Dame −28.5; moved 2 points toward Notre Dame. Total opened 53.5, up 3. |
| Series | Notre Dame leads 84–13–1 |
| Last meeting | Notre Dame 49–10 in 2025 |
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Notre Dame by 26.8 | 97% | 62 |
| PRIME | Notre Dame by 25.5 | 97% | |
| Elo | Notre Dame | 97% | |
| The line | Notre Dame −30.5, opened −28.5 | 56.5, opened 53.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Wed, Oct 28, 2:21 PM ET.
Big Al's pick: Notre Dame. 97% to win
All three ratings favor Notre Dame, by 25.5 to 26.8 points, and it isn't close. Notre Dame's best matchup is its passing game, 7th in EPA per pass, against Navy's pass defense at 118th. Navy's way back in is its run defense, 24th in yards per carry allowed, against Notre Dame's run game at 68th.
| SP+ offense | SP+ defense | |
|---|---|---|
| Notre Dame | 39.5 (3rd) | 14.7 (8th) |
| Navy | 29.0 (52nd) | 30.4 (101st) |
| SUPLEX | SUPLEX allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Notre Dame | 67.2% (10th) | 35.8% (1st) |
| Navy | 63.1% (22nd) | 52.6% (61st) |
| Success rate | Explosive play rate | |
|---|---|---|
| Notre Dame | 52.1% (6th) | 12.1% (71st) |
| Navy | 46.6% (35th) | 13.1% (44th) |
| Success rate allowed | Explosive plays allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Notre Dame | 35.1% (15th) | 6.1% (2nd) |
| Navy | 43.3% (84th) | 11.0% (72nd) |
| Yards per carry | Yards per attempt | |
|---|---|---|
| Notre Dame | 5.23 (68th) | 8.54 (35th) |
| Navy | 6.15 (14th) | 8.44 (38th) |
| 3rd down conversion | 3rd downs allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Notre Dame | 43.5% (50th) | 41.5% (93rd) |
| Navy | 41.7% (61st) | 46.0% (119th) |
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Notre Dame and Navy are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 24, 2026.
| Player | Passing success rate (per dropback) | Passing yards |
|---|---|---|
| C.J. Carr, Notre Dame | 52.0% (12th) | 1,651 (31st) |
| Jackson Gutierrez, Navy | 36.6% (146th) | 692 (132nd) |
| Player | Yards per carry | Rushing success rate |
|---|---|---|
| Nolan James Jr., Notre Dame | 5.1 (150th) | 59.3% (13th) |
| Vic Listorti, Navy | 5.4 (111th) | 52.4% (41st) |
| Player | Explosive catches (16+ yards) | Receiving yards |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Faison, Notre Dame | 9 (103rd) | 451 (65th) |
| Micah Gilbert, Notre Dame | 7 (169th) | 409 (93rd) |
| Jashaun Amin, Navy | 1 (617th) | 106 (575th) |
| Charles Robinson, Navy | 0 (662nd) | 85 (613th) |
| Player | Sacks | INTs | Fumble recoveries | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MarcAnthony Parker, Navy | 4 | 0 | 0 | 61st |
| Boubacar Traore, Notre Dame | 1 | 1 | 1 | 193rd |
| Luke Talich, Notre Dame | 1 | 2 | 0 | 194th |
| Aiden Lyczek, Navy | 3 | 0 | 0 | 182nd |
| Bryce Young, Notre Dame | 2 | 0 | 0 | 453rd |
| Coleman Cauley, Navy | 2 | 0 | 0 | 431st |
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 24, 2026.
On a neutral field, SP+ has Notre Dame 26.8 points better (3rd to 80th). PRIME also has Notre Dame ahead, by 25.5. Elo, which only sees results, also has Notre Dame ahead (1st to 70th).
| Notre Dame | Navy | |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ overall | 25.2 (3rd) | -1.6 (80th) |
| SP+ offense | 39.5 (3rd) | 29.0 (52nd) |
| SP+ defense | 14.7 (8th) | 30.4 (101st) |
| SP+ special teams | 0.4 (11th) | -0.3 (104th) |
| PRIME net | 21.3 (6th) | -4.2 (88th) |
| PRIME offense | 11.67 (7th) | -2.42 (84th) |
| PRIME defense | 9.31 (11th) | -0.19 (71st) |
| PRIME SOS | 2.4 (20th) | -3.5 (80th) |
| PRIME SOR | 2.9 (7th) | -2.1 (118th) |
| Elo | 2082 (1st) | 1487 (70th) |
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Notre Dame's offense ranks 2nd in adjusted EPA per play, and the Navy defense it faces ranks 78th in EPA per play allowed. Navy's offense ranks 55th against Notre Dame's 14th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Notre Dame's offense against Navy's defense. The biggest edge on the board is Notre Dame's passing game: 7th in adjusted EPA per pass, against Navy's 118th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch. Adjust for opponents and Navy's defense climbs from 112th to 78th in EPA per play allowed: it has done its work against good offenses.
| Notre Dame | Navy | |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play (adjusted) | +0.26 (2nd) | +0.12 (55th) |
| EPA per pass (adjusted) | +0.35 (7th) | +0.22 (47th) |
| EPA per rush (adjusted) | +0.14 (9th) | +0.11 (37th) |
| Success rate (adjusted) | 49.0% (6th) | 43.5% (46th) |
| Success rate, standard downs (adjusted) | 54.1% (1st) | 50.5% (23rd) |
| Success rate, passing downs (adjusted) | 29.4% (95th) | 27.7% (117th) |
| Explosiveness (adjusted) | 0.93 (95th) | 0.97 (20th) |
| Line yards per carry (adjusted) | 3.10 (24th) | 3.20 (7th) |
| Open-field yards per carry (adjusted) | 1.10 (76th) | 1.46 (7th) |
| EPA per play allowed (adjusted) | −0.00 (14th) | +0.12 (78th) |
| EPA per pass allowed (adjusted) | +0.15 (42nd) | +0.27 (118th) |
| EPA per rush allowed (adjusted) | −0.06 (2nd) | +0.02 (34th) |
| Success rate allowed (adjusted) | 36.1% (10th) | 39.7% (38th) |
| Explosiveness allowed (adjusted) | 0.92 (46th) | 0.94 (71st) |
| Line yards allowed per carry (adjusted) | 2.73 (14th) | 2.71 (10th) |
| Open-field yards allowed per carry (adjusted) | 0.81 (3rd) | 1.00 (33rd) |
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Notre Dame is about as good throwing (10th in EPA per pass) as running (8th). Navy is better running (14th in EPA per rush) than throwing (69th). Notre Dame's run defense ranks 2nd, so that's strength on strength. On third down, Notre Dame has the edge: its offense ranks 17th in EPA per third-down play, and the defense it faces ranks 116th.
| Notre Dame | Navy | |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.36 (3rd) | +0.19 (45th) |
| EPA per pass | +0.46 (10th) | +0.22 (69th) |
| EPA per rush | +0.25 (8th) | +0.23 (14th) |
| EPA per 3rd-down play | +0.66 (17th) | +0.62 (28th) |
| EPA per play allowed | −0.08 (7th) | +0.18 (112th) |
| EPA per pass allowed | +0.07 (35th) | +0.40 (129th) |
| EPA per rush allowed | −0.18 (2nd) | +0.03 (58th) |
| EPA per 3rd-down play allowed | +0.26 (29th) | +0.58 (116th) |
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Notre Dame outscores FBS opponents by 27.7 a game, and Navy by 0.6. Notre Dame's offense ranks 6th in scoring, and the Navy defense it faces ranks 108th in points allowed. Navy's offense ranks 64th against Notre Dame's 4th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Notre Dame's offense against Navy's defense.
| Notre Dame | Navy | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored | 41.1 (6th) | 29.7 (64th) |
| Points allowed | 13.4 (4th) | 29.1 (108th) |
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Notre Dame's best matchup is staying on schedule: its offense ranks 6th in success rate, and Navy's defense ranks 84th in success rate allowed. That's a mismatch. Navy's best matchup is third downs: its offense ranks 61st in 3rd down conversion rate, and Notre Dame's defense ranks 93rd in 3rd down conversions allowed.
| Notre Dame | Navy | |
|---|---|---|
| Pass yards / game | 263.4 (37th) | 119.4 (130th) |
| Rush yards / game | 188.1 (44th) | 315.3 (3rd) |
| Yards per play | 6.73 (29th) | 6.53 (43rd) |
| Yards per carry | 5.23 (68th) | 6.15 (14th) |
| Yards per attempt | 8.54 (35th) | 8.44 (38th) |
| Completion % | 67.1% (43rd) | 41.4% (133rd) |
| Success rate | 52.1% (6th) | 46.6% (35th) |
| Explosive play rate | 12.1% (71st) | 13.1% (44th) |
| 3rd down conversion | 43.5% (50th) | 41.7% (61st) |
| Sack rate (taken) | 0.9% (2nd) | 7.5% (107th) |
| INT rate (thrown) | 0.5% (5th) | 2.0% (54th) |
| SUPLEX | 67.2% (10th) | 63.1% (22nd) |
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Notre Dame's defense is best placed to get home: it ranks 39th in sack rate, and Navy's offense is bottom-40 at avoiding sacks (107th). That's a mismatch. Navy's defense is best placed to stop the run: it ranks 24th in yards per carry allowed, and Notre Dame's offense is middle of the pack in yards per carry (68th).
| Notre Dame | Navy | |
|---|---|---|
| Pass yards allowed / game | 170.7 (16th) | 259.1 (121st) |
| Rush yards allowed / game | 80.3 (3rd) | 131.1 (42nd) |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.67 (8th) | 6.68 (115th) |
| Yards per carry allowed | 3.23 (1st) | 4.12 (24th) |
| Yards per attempt allowed | 6.39 (37th) | 10.61 (137th) |
| Success rate allowed | 35.1% (15th) | 43.3% (84th) |
| Explosive plays allowed | 6.1% (2nd) | 11.0% (72nd) |
| 3rd downs allowed | 41.5% (93rd) | 46.0% (119th) |
| Sack rate (generated) | 7.4% (39th) | 8.1% (26th) |
| INT rate (generated) | 4.3% (14th) | 2.3% (72nd) |
| SUPLEX allowed | 35.8% (1st) | 52.6% (61st) |
What opponents managed against them.
Notre Dame is +2.0 in turnover margin a game and Navy is −0.9. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 14-point edge for Notre Dame. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it. Fumble recoveries are mostly luck, and Notre Dame's takeaways lean on them (1.1 of 2.3 a game).
| Notre Dame | Navy | |
|---|---|---|
| Interceptions thrown / game | 0.14 (5th) | 0.29 (17th) |
| Fumbles lost / game | 0.14 (3rd) | 1.14 (132nd) |
| Giveaways / game | 0.29 (1st) | 1.43 (88th) |
| Interceptions / game | 1.14 (14th) | 0.57 (84th) |
| Fumbles recovered / game | 1.14 (2nd) | 0.00 (131st) |
| Takeaways / game | 2.29 (4th) | 0.57 (126th) |
| Turnover margin / game | +2.0 (2nd) | -0.9 (123rd) |
Per game, from play-by-play.
Notre Dame has the more talented roster (6th in the 247Sports talent composite; Navy is 138th). But Navy plays further above its talent: +27.7 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Notre Dame's +7.0.
| Notre Dame | Navy | |
|---|---|---|
| Talent composite | 953.0 (6th) | 195.7 (138th) |
| Blue-chip ratio | 68.7% (4th) | 0.0% (126th) |
| Players on roster | 113 (51st) | 197 (1st) |
| Rated by 247Sports | 99 (4th) | 19 (138th) |
| 5-star players | 9 (6th) | 0 (37th) |
| 4-star players | 59 (3rd) | 0 (126th) |
| 3-star players | 31 (130th) | 12 (138th) |
| Below 3-star | 0 (113th) | 7 (14th) |
| 2026 transfers in | 7 (132nd) | — () |
| Transfer share | 7.1% (132nd) | — () |
| SP+ vs. talent | +7.0 (31st) | +27.7 (1st) |
| Returning production | 51.2% (54th) | 13.8% (114th) |
| Returning passing production | 90.7% (45th) | -3.1% (127th) |
| Returning rushing production | 12.3% (102nd) | 19.4% (94th) |
| Returning receiving production | 37.6% (68th) | 14.6% (113th) |
| 2026 recruiting class (national rank) | 5 (5th) | 144 (137th) |
| Recruiting rank, last four classes | 9.5 (8th) | 140.0 (135th) |
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
| Notre Dame | Navy | |
|---|---|---|
| Roster value | $36.7M (6th) | — () |
| Roster cost per win | $6.1M (46th) | — () |
| Projected wins per $1M | 0.29 (32nd) | — () |
| SP+ vs. payroll | +6.8 (13th) | — () |
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
Notre Dame is +2.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is roster (+1.7). Navy is −1.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is roster (−3.3). Navy's record is 2.0 wins worse than its play on bad luck, so it's better than the record says.
| Notre Dame | Navy | |
|---|---|---|
| BAWA (total) | +2.5 (8th) | -1.5 (115th) |
| Schedule BAWA | +0.1 (85th) | +0.8 (50th) |
| Roster BAWA | +1.7 (7th) | -3.3 (138th) |
| Coach BAWA | +1.1 (21st) | +3.0 (3rd) |
| Luck BAWA | -0.4 (91st) | -2.0 (138th) |
Big Al Wins Added: where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Big Al picks Notre Dame, 97% to win. All three ratings favor the same team. Notre Dame's best matchup is its passing game, 7th in EPA per pass, against Navy's pass defense at 118th.
Sat, Oct 31, 12:00 PM ET at Gillette Stadium, on ABC.
DraftKings has Notre Dame −30.5, total 56.5. Big Al picks winners, not bets.
Notre Dame leads 84–13–1. Last meeting: Notre Dame won 49–10 in 2025.
Notre Dame's is C.J. Carr (1,651 passing yards this season); Navy's is Jackson Gutierrez (692 passing yards this season).
Navy: Jashaun Amin (WR) hasn't played since Week 6.
Numbers through the games of Oct 24, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Notre Dame and Navy: team pages with every stat and national rank. Compare any two teams.