College football, 2026 season
Data-driven picks for every FBS game + interactive charts you can customize to support any narrative (except Big 12 supremacy).
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Everything on this site starts with someone else's data, and we credit all of it. The projections, picks, rankings and tiers are our own math on top.
| Source | What we use | How often |
|---|---|---|
| CollegeFootballData.com, via the public cfbfastR files | Schedules, final scores, pregame Elo, play-by-play and box score stats, rosters | Usually posted Sunday or Monday morning after games |
| DraftKings lines (via The Odds API and CollegeFootballData.com) | The line and total on each game, and where each opened | Every morning, and before kickoffs Thursday to Saturday |
| Team logos and colors (ESPN's, via CollegeFootballData.com) | The logos on charts, game cards and team pages. They belong to the schools and are used only to identify the teams. | Preseason |
| SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update) | Overall, offense, defense and special teams ratings | Weekly |
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| AP Top 25 (via NCAA.com) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sunday afternoons |
| AFCA Coaches Poll (via Yahoo Sports, CBS Sports, SI) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sundays |
| 247Sports | Team talent composite, star counts, 2026 transfer portal rankings | Preseason |
| The NIL Standard | Estimated NIL roster values | Preseason |
| us-atlas (U.S. Census Bureau boundaries) | State shapes for the map | Once |
Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of the 138 FBS teams.
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About
Last updated October 26, 2026.
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Big Al's CFB Lab publishes college football statistics, projections and opinions. Everything here is for information and entertainment. Projections and picks are estimates from public data and can be wrong, sometimes badly.
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Last updated October 26, 2026.
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Projected scores come from SP+ offense, defense and special teams, plus 2.5 points for the home team. Cards also show DraftKings' line and total as facts: we pick winners, not bets. Open Details for the full read, or Head to head for every stat.
Final scores against what we said before kickoff. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favored, unless he made the call himself on a toss-up or one of the week's biggest games. Ranked means in that week's AP poll. Open a game for the full preview as it stood going into the week.
Straight-up picks: did the pick win? Big Al's pick is the team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favor. Big Al and SP+ picks start in Week 8; Elo picks go back to Week 1.
Each column is that week's ranking. Arrows compare the latest poll to the week before. NR means not ranked.
Rankings come from cfbtrack.com. Week 1 is the preseason poll; each later week is the poll released before that week's games.
SP+ vs. payroll is the average, across a conference's teams with an NIL valuation (positive means its teams play better than their payrolls predict). Blue-chip ratio is the share of all its rostered players who were 4- or 5-star recruits.
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The columns on the right show where each team would be seeded under the other ratings. A dash means out.
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Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
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Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
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Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Week 9, Sat, Oct 31, 3:00 PM ET, Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium.
Big Al's pick: East Carolina, 64% to win.
| Kickoff | Sat, Oct 31, 3:00 PM ET |
|---|---|
| TV | ESPN+ |
| Where | Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium |
| Weather | 69°, wind 9 mph |
| Line | East Carolina −6, total 49.5 |
| Line movement | Opened East Carolina −4.5; moved 1.5 points toward East Carolina. |
| Series | East Carolina leads 12–10 |
| Last meeting | East Carolina 45–14 in 2025 |
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | East Carolina by 6.2 | 67% | 56 |
| PRIME | East Carolina by 0.0 | 50% | |
| Elo | East Carolina | 75% | |
| The line | East Carolina −6, opened −4.5 | 49.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Wed, Oct 28, 2:21 PM ET.
Big Al's pick: East Carolina. 64% to win
SP+ and Elo take East Carolina, but PRIME has Temple by 0.0. East Carolina's best matchup is its pass rush, 9th in sack rate, against Temple's pass protection at 120th. Temple's way back in is its big-play offense, 12th in explosive play rate, against East Carolina's big-play defense at 103rd.
| SP+ offense | SP+ defense | |
|---|---|---|
| Temple | 25.5 (79th) | 33.3 (117th) |
| East Carolina | 22.2 (105th) | 26.4 (70th) |
| SUPLEX | SUPLEX allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Temple | 62.1% (26th) | 54.7% (77th) |
| East Carolina | 49.3% (114th) | 47.3% (27th) |
| Success rate | Explosive play rate | |
|---|---|---|
| Temple | 45.3% (53rd) | 16.0% (12th) |
| East Carolina | 37.6% (121st) | 11.1% (98th) |
| Success rate allowed | Explosive plays allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Temple | 46.8% (116th) | 13.5% (110th) |
| East Carolina | 35.6% (18th) | 13.0% (103rd) |
| Yards per carry | Yards per attempt | |
|---|---|---|
| Temple | 6.14 (15th) | 9.39 (16th) |
| East Carolina | 5.47 (46th) | 5.91 (125th) |
| 3rd down conversion | 3rd downs allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Temple | 46.3% (30th) | 51.2% (134th) |
| East Carolina | 33.3% (112th) | 31.8% (20th) |
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Temple and East Carolina are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 24, 2026.
| Player | Passing success rate (per dropback) | Passing yards |
|---|---|---|
| Ajani Sheppard, Temple | 40.8% (104th) | 1,147 (97th) |
| Emory Williams, East Carolina | 40.0% (117th) | 728 (128th) |
| Player | Yards per carry | Rushing success rate |
|---|---|---|
| Keveun Mason, Temple | 5.5 (110th) | 40.9% (225th) |
| TJ Engleman, East Carolina | 6.6 (39th) | 45.5% (139th) |
| Player | Explosive catches (16+ yards) | Receiving yards |
|---|---|---|
| Colin Chase, Temple | 6 (241st) | 308 (181st) |
| Peter Clarke, Temple | 7 (176th) | 269 (240th) |
| Nathaniel Joseph, East Carolina | 6 (205th) | 286 (208th) |
| Landon Sides, East Carolina | 5 (271st) | 174 (421st) |
| Player | Sacks | INTs | Fumble recoveries | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kieran Davis, East Carolina | 2 | 0 | 1 | 138th |
| Curly Ordonez, Temple | 2 | 0 | 0 | 516th |
| Tyree Alualu, Temple | 1 | 1 | 0 | 517th |
| Ayden Duncanson, East Carolina | 0 | 2 | 0 | 320th |
| Jasiyah Robinson, East Carolina | 2 | 0 | 0 | 321st |
| Asa Locks, Temple | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1361st |
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 24, 2026.
On a neutral field, SP+ has East Carolina 3.7 points better (91st to 99th). PRIME has Temple by 2.5 instead. The two ratings split on Temple's offense: 79th in SP+, 53rd in PRIME. Elo, which only sees results, also has East Carolina ahead (83rd to 108th).
| Temple | East Carolina | |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ overall | -7.7 (99th) | -4.0 (91st) |
| SP+ offense | 25.5 (79th) | 22.2 (105th) |
| SP+ defense | 33.3 (117th) | 26.4 (70th) |
| SP+ special teams | 0.1 (54th) | 0.2 (42nd) |
| PRIME net | -6.6 (96th) | -9.1 (105th) |
| PRIME offense | 1.29 (53rd) | -7.67 (119th) |
| PRIME defense | -7.78 (126th) | -0.09 (69th) |
| PRIME SOS | -6.5 (105th) | -4.5 (89th) |
| PRIME SOR | -2.6 (127th) | -1.3 (105th) |
| Elo | 1298 (108th) | 1433 (83rd) |
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Temple's offense ranks 33rd in adjusted EPA per play, and the East Carolina defense it faces ranks 59th in EPA per play allowed. East Carolina's offense ranks 112th against Temple's 123rd-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Temple's offense against East Carolina's defense. The biggest edge on the board is Temple's big plays: 42nd in adjusted explosiveness, against East Carolina's 81st-ranked defense. Adjust for opponents and East Carolina's defense falls from 32nd to 59th in EPA per play allowed: a lot of that came against soft offenses.
| Temple | East Carolina | |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play (adjusted) | +0.16 (33rd) | +0.04 (112th) |
| EPA per pass (adjusted) | +0.20 (64th) | +0.11 (122nd) |
| EPA per rush (adjusted) | +0.13 (17th) | +0.03 (99th) |
| Success rate (adjusted) | 41.6% (65th) | 36.2% (128th) |
| Success rate, standard downs (adjusted) | 47.3% (56th) | 42.8% (126th) |
| Success rate, passing downs (adjusted) | 30.0% (79th) | 27.4% (124th) |
| Explosiveness (adjusted) | 0.95 (42nd) | 0.94 (70th) |
| Line yards per carry (adjusted) | 3.22 (5th) | 2.93 (82nd) |
| Open-field yards per carry (adjusted) | 1.32 (18th) | 1.14 (64th) |
| EPA per play allowed (adjusted) | +0.20 (123rd) | +0.09 (59th) |
| EPA per pass allowed (adjusted) | +0.29 (123rd) | +0.15 (47th) |
| EPA per rush allowed (adjusted) | +0.10 (98th) | +0.05 (55th) |
| Success rate allowed (adjusted) | 47.2% (129th) | 39.4% (33rd) |
| Explosiveness allowed (adjusted) | 0.93 (55th) | 0.94 (81st) |
| Line yards allowed per carry (adjusted) | 3.00 (81st) | 2.69 (8th) |
| Open-field yards allowed per carry (adjusted) | 1.10 (58th) | 0.99 (31st) |
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Temple is better running (32nd in EPA per rush) than throwing (52nd). East Carolina's run defense ranks 54th. East Carolina is better throwing (87th in EPA per pass) than running (103rd). Temple's pass defense ranks 112th, so that's an edge. On third down, East Carolina has the edge: its offense ranks 43rd in EPA per third-down play, and the defense it faces ranks 132nd.
| Temple | East Carolina | |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.21 (36th) | +0.08 (96th) |
| EPA per pass | +0.26 (52nd) | +0.17 (87th) |
| EPA per rush | +0.18 (32nd) | +0.02 (103rd) |
| EPA per 3rd-down play | +0.52 (50th) | +0.55 (43rd) |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.21 (118th) | +0.02 (32nd) |
| EPA per pass allowed | +0.33 (112th) | +0.07 (35th) |
| EPA per rush allowed | +0.12 (94th) | +0.02 (54th) |
| EPA per 3rd-down play allowed | +0.68 (132nd) | +0.19 (16th) |
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Temple is outscored by 2.3 a game, and East Carolina is outscored by 1.3. Temple's offense ranks 91st in scoring, and the East Carolina defense it faces ranks 93rd in points allowed. East Carolina's offense ranks 94th against Temple's 104th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge.
| Temple | East Carolina | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored | 25.7 (91st) | 25.0 (94th) |
| Points allowed | 28.0 (104th) | 26.3 (93rd) |
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Temple's best matchup is big plays: its offense ranks 12th in explosive play rate, and East Carolina's defense ranks 103rd in explosive plays allowed. That's a mismatch. East Carolina has no clear edge here. Its best is 3rd down conversion rate, 112th, against a defense ranked 134th in 3rd down conversions allowed.
| Temple | East Carolina | |
|---|---|---|
| Pass yards / game | 186.4 (110th) | 210.8 (90th) |
| Rush yards / game | 212.4 (21st) | 196.2 (35th) |
| Yards per play | 7.07 (18th) | 5.54 (114th) |
| Yards per carry | 6.14 (15th) | 5.47 (46th) |
| Yards per attempt | 9.39 (16th) | 5.91 (125th) |
| Completion % | 65.5% (55th) | 53.7% (114th) |
| Success rate | 45.3% (53rd) | 37.6% (121st) |
| Explosive play rate | 16.0% (12th) | 11.1% (98th) |
| 3rd down conversion | 46.3% (30th) | 33.3% (112th) |
| Sack rate (taken) | 9.2% (120th) | 5.3% (67th) |
| INT rate (thrown) | 0.7% (11th) | 2.3% (70th) |
| SUPLEX | 62.1% (26th) | 49.3% (114th) |
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Temple's defense is best placed to win on early downs: it ranks 77th in SUPLEX allowed, and East Carolina's offense is bottom-40 in SUPLEX (114th). East Carolina's defense is best placed to get home: it ranks 9th in sack rate, and Temple's offense is bottom-20 at avoiding sacks (120th). That's a mismatch.
| Temple | East Carolina | |
|---|---|---|
| Pass yards allowed / game | 215.7 (77th) | 200.5 (48th) |
| Rush yards allowed / game | 157.7 (79th) | 147.3 (66th) |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.21 (92nd) | 5.31 (37th) |
| Yards per carry allowed | 4.72 (65th) | 3.95 (18th) |
| Yards per attempt allowed | 8.44 (109th) | 7.91 (88th) |
| Success rate allowed | 46.8% (116th) | 35.6% (18th) |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.5% (110th) | 13.0% (103rd) |
| 3rd downs allowed | 51.2% (134th) | 31.8% (20th) |
| Sack rate (generated) | 4.3% (114th) | 10.1% (9th) |
| INT rate (generated) | 1.1% (121st) | 3.3% (37th) |
| SUPLEX allowed | 54.7% (77th) | 47.3% (27th) |
What opponents managed against them.
Temple is 0.0 in turnover margin a game and East Carolina is −0.6. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 3-point edge for Temple. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.
| Temple | East Carolina | |
|---|---|---|
| Interceptions thrown / game | 0.14 (5th) | 0.86 (84th) |
| Fumbles lost / game | 0.71 (99th) | 1.00 (127th) |
| Giveaways / game | 0.86 (26th) | 1.86 (126th) |
| Interceptions / game | 0.29 (119th) | 0.71 (64th) |
| Fumbles recovered / game | 0.57 (49th) | 0.57 (49th) |
| Takeaways / game | 0.86 (107th) | 1.29 (54th) |
| Turnover margin / game | 0.0 (66th) | -0.6 (108th) |
Per game, from play-by-play.
Temple has the more talented roster (80th in the 247Sports talent composite; East Carolina is 82nd). But East Carolina plays further above its talent: −1.6 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Temple's −5.7.
| Temple | East Carolina | |
|---|---|---|
| Talent composite | 631.1 (80th) | 623.8 (82nd) |
| Blue-chip ratio | 6.3% (88th) | 4.1% (102nd) |
| Players on roster | 119 (20th) | 119 (20th) |
| Rated by 247Sports | 79 (66th) | 73 (87th) |
| 5-star players | 0 (37th) | 0 (37th) |
| 4-star players | 5 (81st) | 3 (94th) |
| 3-star players | 69 (33rd) | 69 (33rd) |
| Below 3-star | 5 (29th) | 1 (86th) |
| 2026 transfers in | 23 (56th) | 24 (53rd) |
| Transfer share | 29.1% (68th) | 32.9% (53rd) |
| SP+ vs. talent | -5.7 (104th) | -1.6 (74th) |
| Returning production | 37.0% (74th) | 13.6% (116th) |
| Returning passing production | 0.0% (109th) | 0.0% (109th) |
| Returning rushing production | 22.9% (90th) | 26.8% (85th) |
| Returning receiving production | 69.1% (19th) | 19.5% (104th) |
| 2026 recruiting class (national rank) | 68 (68th) | 94 (94th) |
| Recruiting rank, last four classes | 97.8 (99th) | 77.2 (73rd) |
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Temple is −1.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is luck (−1.1). East Carolina is −0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (+1.0). Temple's record is 1.1 wins worse than its play on bad luck, so it's better than the record says.
| Temple | East Carolina | |
|---|---|---|
| BAWA (total) | -1.5 (115th) | -0.5 (89th) |
| Schedule BAWA | +0.7 (56th) | +1.0 (44th) |
| Roster BAWA | -0.2 (83rd) | -0.3 (88th) |
| Coach BAWA | -0.9 (105th) | -0.3 (81st) |
| Luck BAWA | -1.1 (125th) | -0.9 (116th) |
Big Al Wins Added: where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Big Al picks East Carolina, 64% to win. SP+ and Elo agree; PRIME has Temple. East Carolina's best matchup is its pass rush, 9th in sack rate, against Temple's pass protection at 120th.
Sat, Oct 31, 3:00 PM ET at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium, on ESPN+.
DraftKings has East Carolina −6, total 49.5. Big Al picks winners, not bets.
East Carolina leads 12–10. Last meeting: East Carolina won 45–14 in 2025.
Temple's is Ajani Sheppard (1,147 passing yards this season); East Carolina's is Emory Williams (728 passing yards this season).
Numbers through the games of Oct 24, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Temple and East Carolina: team pages with every stat and national rank. Compare any two teams.