College football, 2026 season
Data-driven picks for every FBS game + interactive charts you can customize to support any narrative (except Big 12 supremacy).
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Everything on this site starts with someone else's data, and we credit all of it. The projections, picks, rankings and tiers are our own math on top.
| Source | What we use | How often |
|---|---|---|
| CollegeFootballData.com, via the public cfbfastR files | Schedules, final scores, pregame Elo, play-by-play and box score stats, rosters | Usually posted Sunday or Monday morning after games |
| DraftKings lines (via The Odds API and CollegeFootballData.com) | The line and total on each game, and where each opened | Every morning, and before kickoffs Thursday to Saturday |
| Team logos and colors (ESPN's, via CollegeFootballData.com) | The logos on charts, game cards and team pages. They belong to the schools and are used only to identify the teams. | Preseason |
| SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update) | Overall, offense, defense and special teams ratings | Weekly |
| PRIME (primecfb.com) | Net, offense, defense and special teams ratings, strength of schedule, strength of record | Weekly |
| AP Top 25 (via NCAA.com) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sunday afternoons |
| AFCA Coaches Poll (via Yahoo Sports, CBS Sports, SI) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sundays |
| 247Sports | Team talent composite, star counts, 2026 transfer portal rankings | Preseason |
| The NIL Standard | Estimated NIL roster values | Preseason |
| us-atlas (U.S. Census Bureau boundaries) | State shapes for the map | Once |
Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of the 138 FBS teams.
About
Every stat and term on the site, explained like you're five. Or like you're a grown adult who never asked what EPA means and is now too embarrassed to.
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What the numbers on team pages, charts and head to head mean.
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Who's who and how the 12-team field works.
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About
Last updated October 26, 2026.
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Big Al's CFB Lab publishes college football statistics, projections and opinions. Everything here is for information and entertainment. Projections and picks are estimates from public data and can be wrong, sometimes badly.
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About
Last updated October 26, 2026.
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Projected scores come from SP+ offense, defense and special teams, plus 2.5 points for the home team. Cards also show DraftKings' line and total as facts: we pick winners, not bets. Open Details for the full read, or Head to head for every stat.
Final scores against what we said before kickoff. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favored, unless he made the call himself on a toss-up or one of the week's biggest games. Ranked means in that week's AP poll. Open a game for the full preview as it stood going into the week.
Straight-up picks: did the pick win? Big Al's pick is the team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favor. Big Al and SP+ picks start in Week 8; Elo picks go back to Week 1.
Each column is that week's ranking. Arrows compare the latest poll to the week before. NR means not ranked.
Rankings come from cfbtrack.com. Week 1 is the preseason poll; each later week is the poll released before that week's games.
SP+ vs. payroll is the average, across a conference's teams with an NIL valuation (positive means its teams play better than their payrolls predict). Blue-chip ratio is the share of all its rostered players who were 4- or 5-star recruits.
Ranks are national, out of 138 FBS teams. A top-10 team also counts toward the top 25 and top 40, and everyone outside the last cutoff counts as weak. Open a conference to see its teams.
Seeds 1–4 get first-round byes. Seeds 5–8 host the first round.
The columns on the right show where each team would be seeded under the other ratings. A dash means out.
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor. On the toss-ups and the biggest games, Big Al makes the call himself and says why.
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
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Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Week 9, Sat, Oct 31, 8:00 PM ET, Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium.
Big Al's pick: Memphis, 67% to win.
| Kickoff | Sat, Oct 31, 8:00 PM ET |
|---|---|
| TV | ESPNU |
| Where | Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium |
| Weather | 68°, overcast, wind 6 mph |
| Line | Memphis −6, total 60.5 |
| Line movement | Total opened 56.5, up 4. |
| Series | Memphis leads 4–1 |
| Last meeting | Memphis 38–10 in 2002 |
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Memphis by 8.5 | 73% | 68 |
| PRIME | Memphis by 4.9 | 64% | |
| Elo | Memphis | 65% | |
| The line | Memphis −6 | 60.5, opened 56.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Wed, Oct 28, 2:21 PM ET.
Big Al's pick: Memphis. 67% to win
All three ratings favor Memphis, by 4.9 to 8.5 points. Memphis' best matchup is its offense, 10th in yards per play, against Army's defense at 133rd. Army's way back in is its run game, 4th in yards per carry, against Memphis' run defense at 120th.
| SP+ offense | SP+ defense | |
|---|---|---|
| Army | 30.2 (43rd) | 29.5 (96th) |
| Memphis | 33.8 (21st) | 26.6 (72nd) |
| SUPLEX | SUPLEX allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Army | 57.3% (59th) | 62.9% (124th) |
| Memphis | 66.5% (13th) | 54.0% (68th) |
| Success rate | Explosive play rate | |
|---|---|---|
| Army | 48.9% (21st) | 12.6% (58th) |
| Memphis | 48.9% (22nd) | 16.4% (10th) |
| Success rate allowed | Explosive plays allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Army | 47.8% (122nd) | 14.5% (124th) |
| Memphis | 38.9% (50th) | 14.0% (116th) |
| Yards per carry | Yards per attempt | |
|---|---|---|
| Army | 6.50 (4th) | 5.14 (131st) |
| Memphis | 6.22 (12th) | 9.44 (13th) |
| 3rd down conversion | 3rd downs allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Army | 46.2% (32nd) | 49.2% (131st) |
| Memphis | 40.8% (66th) | 32.4% (25th) |
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Army and Memphis are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 24, 2026.
| Player | Passing success rate (per dropback) | Passing yards |
|---|---|---|
| Cale Hellums, Army | 43.1% (80th) | 422 (159th) |
| Marcus Stokes, Memphis | 48.7% (27th) | 2,165 (8th) |
| Player | Yards per carry | Rushing success rate |
|---|---|---|
| Godspower Nwawuihe, Army | 5.9 (74th) | 50.8% (58th) |
| Jaylin Carter, Memphis | 6.5 (48th) | 50.4% (60th) |
| Player | Explosive catches (16+ yards) | Receiving yards |
|---|---|---|
| Bradyn Anderson, Army | 3 (425th) | 163 (442nd) |
| Samari Howard, Army | 2 (513th) | 116 (547th) |
| Braylon Burnside, Memphis | 9 (96th) | 430 (80th) |
| Hunter Tipton, Memphis | 7 (164th) | 383 (112th) |
| Player | Sacks | INTs | Fumble recoveries | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elijah Kinsler, Memphis | 5 | 0 | 0 | 24th |
| Victor Afolabi, Army | 3 | 0 | 0 | 109th |
| Dylan Smith, Memphis | 0 | 3 | 0 | 171st |
| J'Mond Tapp, Memphis | 2 | 0 | 1 | 172nd |
| Dillon Stowers, Army | 2 | 0 | 0 | 276th |
| Caleb Williams, Army | 0 | 1 | 0 | 645th |
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 24, 2026.
On a neutral field, SP+ has Memphis 6.0 points better (46th to 66th). PRIME also has Memphis ahead, by 2.4. Elo, which only sees results, also has Memphis ahead (43rd to 56th).
| Army | Memphis | |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ overall | 1.0 (66th) | 7.0 (46th) |
| SP+ offense | 30.2 (43rd) | 33.8 (21st) |
| SP+ defense | 29.5 (96th) | 26.6 (72nd) |
| SP+ special teams | 0.3 (28th) | -0.1 (80th) |
| PRIME net | -0.9 (74th) | 1.5 (62nd) |
| PRIME offense | 4.79 (34th) | 3.68 (39th) |
| PRIME defense | -7.57 (125th) | -0.81 (76th) |
| PRIME SOS | -6.9 (110th) | -7.1 (113th) |
| PRIME SOR | 0.4 (53rd) | 0.7 (49th) |
| Elo | 1571 (56th) | 1622 (43rd) |
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Army's offense ranks 14th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Memphis defense it faces ranks 57th in EPA per play allowed. Memphis' offense ranks 32nd against Army's 125th-ranked defense. Both offenses have the edge on the defenses they face. The biggest edge on the board is Memphis' offensive line in the run game: 13th in adjusted line yards per carry, against Army's 128th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch.
| Army | Memphis | |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play (adjusted) | +0.21 (14th) | +0.17 (32nd) |
| EPA per pass (adjusted) | +0.20 (68th) | +0.31 (13th) |
| EPA per rush (adjusted) | +0.21 (1st) | +0.10 (45th) |
| Success rate (adjusted) | 46.9% (17th) | 45.9% (26th) |
| Success rate, standard downs (adjusted) | 51.9% (11th) | 50.8% (17th) |
| Success rate, passing downs (adjusted) | 30.5% (68th) | 31.3% (51st) |
| Explosiveness (adjusted) | 0.97 (21st) | 0.92 (104th) |
| Line yards per carry (adjusted) | 3.19 (12th) | 3.17 (13th) |
| Open-field yards per carry (adjusted) | 1.35 (15th) | 1.27 (31st) |
| EPA per play allowed (adjusted) | +0.20 (125th) | +0.09 (57th) |
| EPA per pass allowed (adjusted) | +0.29 (125th) | +0.12 (24th) |
| EPA per rush allowed (adjusted) | +0.16 (129th) | +0.10 (97th) |
| Success rate allowed (adjusted) | 45.9% (116th) | 40.6% (50th) |
| Explosiveness allowed (adjusted) | 0.99 (132nd) | 0.97 (117th) |
| Line yards allowed per carry (adjusted) | 3.20 (128th) | 2.98 (73rd) |
| Open-field yards allowed per carry (adjusted) | 1.39 (128th) | 1.38 (125th) |
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Army is better running (1st in EPA per rush) than throwing (96th). Memphis' run defense ranks 112th, so that's a mismatch. Memphis is better throwing (20th in EPA per pass) than running (56th). Army's pass defense ranks 112th, so that's a mismatch. On third down, Memphis has the edge: its offense ranks 69th in EPA per third-down play, and the defense it faces ranks 127th.
| Army | Memphis | |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.32 (7th) | +0.20 (41st) |
| EPA per pass | +0.12 (96th) | +0.41 (20th) |
| EPA per rush | +0.37 (1st) | +0.13 (56th) |
| EPA per 3rd-down play | +0.65 (22nd) | +0.46 (69th) |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.24 (124th) | +0.08 (63rd) |
| EPA per pass allowed | +0.33 (112th) | +0.04 (21st) |
| EPA per rush allowed | +0.27 (132nd) | +0.16 (112th) |
| EPA per 3rd-down play allowed | +0.62 (127th) | +0.24 (23rd) |
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Army outscores FBS opponents by 13.2 a game, and Memphis by 12.3. Army's offense ranks 32nd in scoring, and the Memphis defense it faces ranks 66th in points allowed. Memphis' offense ranks 21st against Army's 54th-ranked defense. Both offenses have the edge on the defenses they face.
| Army | Memphis | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored | 35.3 (32nd) | 36.1 (21st) |
| Points allowed | 22.1 (54th) | 23.8 (66th) |
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Army's best matchup is its run game: its offense ranks 4th in yards per carry, and Memphis' defense ranks 120th in yards per carry allowed. That's a mismatch. Memphis' best matchup is big plays: its offense ranks 10th in explosive play rate, and Army's defense ranks 124th in explosive plays allowed. That's a mismatch.
| Army | Memphis | |
|---|---|---|
| Pass yards / game | 74.9 (133rd) | 284.3 (20th) |
| Rush yards / game | 344.4 (1st) | 240.9 (9th) |
| Yards per play | 6.17 (70th) | 7.42 (10th) |
| Yards per carry | 6.50 (4th) | 6.22 (12th) |
| Yards per attempt | 5.14 (131st) | 9.44 (13th) |
| Completion % | 43.1% (132nd) | 65.1% (58th) |
| Success rate | 48.9% (21st) | 48.9% (22nd) |
| Explosive play rate | 12.6% (58th) | 16.4% (10th) |
| 3rd down conversion | 46.2% (32nd) | 40.8% (66th) |
| Sack rate (taken) | 2.9% (14th) | 5.9% (79th) |
| INT rate (thrown) | 1.0% (18th) | 2.9% (95th) |
| SUPLEX | 57.3% (59th) | 66.5% (13th) |
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Neither defense ranks 25 spots ahead of the offense it faces in any of these, so expect both offenses to look like themselves.
| Army | Memphis | |
|---|---|---|
| Pass yards allowed / game | 204.6 (56th) | 212.9 (70th) |
| Rush yards allowed / game | 150.0 (72nd) | 189.8 (114th) |
| Yards per play allowed | 7.37 (133rd) | 6.43 (106th) |
| Yards per carry allowed | 5.90 (125th) | 5.73 (120th) |
| Yards per attempt allowed | 9.48 (128th) | 7.85 (85th) |
| Success rate allowed | 47.8% (122nd) | 38.9% (50th) |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.5% (124th) | 14.0% (116th) |
| 3rd downs allowed | 49.2% (131st) | 32.4% (25th) |
| Sack rate (generated) | 5.0% (95th) | 8.1% (27th) |
| INT rate (generated) | 2.0% (85th) | 4.2% (15th) |
| SUPLEX allowed | 62.9% (124th) | 54.0% (68th) |
What opponents managed against them.
Neither team has a real turnover edge: Army is +0.4 a game and Memphis +0.3. Fumble recoveries are mostly luck, and Memphis' takeaways lean on them (1.0 of 1.7 a game).
| Army | Memphis | |
|---|---|---|
| Interceptions thrown / game | 0.14 (5th) | 0.71 (59th) |
| Fumbles lost / game | 0.14 (3rd) | 0.71 (99th) |
| Giveaways / game | 0.29 (1st) | 1.43 (88th) |
| Interceptions / game | 0.43 (105th) | 0.71 (64th) |
| Fumbles recovered / game | 0.29 (94th) | 1.00 (5th) |
| Takeaways / game | 0.71 (118th) | 1.71 (16th) |
| Turnover margin / game | +0.4 (33rd) | +0.3 (50th) |
Per game, from play-by-play.
Memphis has the more talented roster (67th in the 247Sports talent composite; Army is 136th). But Army plays further above its talent: +23.5 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Memphis' +6.5.
| Army | Memphis | |
|---|---|---|
| Talent composite | 303.8 (136th) | 670.3 (67th) |
| Blue-chip ratio | 0.0% (126th) | 10.3% (69th) |
| Players on roster | 196 (2nd) | 107 (94th) |
| Rated by 247Sports | 33 (136th) | 78 (70th) |
| 5-star players | 0 (37th) | 0 (37th) |
| 4-star players | 0 (126th) | 8 (62nd) |
| 3-star players | 19 (137th) | 69 (33rd) |
| Below 3-star | 14 (2nd) | 1 (86th) |
| 2026 transfers in | — () | 53 (3rd) |
| Transfer share | — () | 67.9% (5th) |
| SP+ vs. talent | +23.5 (3rd) | +6.5 (32nd) |
| Returning production | 80.2% (12th) | 5.6% (127th) |
| Returning passing production | 62.6% (62nd) | 1.7% (107th) |
| Returning rushing production | 88.6% (28th) | 0.0% (113th) |
| Returning receiving production | 83.1% (10th) | 11.1% (123rd) |
| 2026 recruiting class (national rank) | 181 (138th) | 72 (72nd) |
| Recruiting rank, last four classes | 145.2 (137th) | 65.0 (68th) |
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Army is +1.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (+3.2). Memphis is +2.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (+1.6).
| Army | Memphis | |
|---|---|---|
| BAWA (total) | +1.5 (30th) | +2.0 (20th) |
| Schedule BAWA | +1.2 (38th) | +1.6 (14th) |
| Roster BAWA | -3.2 (136th) | -0.0 (71st) |
| Coach BAWA | +3.2 (1st) | +0.9 (31st) |
| Luck BAWA | +0.3 (52nd) | -0.4 (95th) |
Big Al Wins Added: where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Big Al picks Memphis, 67% to win. All three ratings favor the same team. Memphis' best matchup is its offense, 10th in yards per play, against Army's defense at 133rd.
Sat, Oct 31, 8:00 PM ET at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium, on ESPNU.
DraftKings has Memphis −6, total 60.5. Big Al picks winners, not bets.
Memphis leads 4–1. Last meeting: Memphis won 38–10 in 2002.
Army's is Cale Hellums (422 passing yards this season); Memphis' is Marcus Stokes (2,165 passing yards this season).
Numbers through the games of Oct 24, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Army and Memphis: team pages with every stat and national rank. Compare any two teams.