This week's picks

Big Al's CFB Lab

Data updated
ACC

SMU

6–1 (4–1 ACC). 2026 season, games through Oct 24, 2026.

SP+ rating12.925th of 138
SP+ offense33.032nd of 138
SP+ defense19.829th of 138
PRIME8.533rd of 138
Elo175921st of 138
Week 9

SMU at Syracuse

Sat, Oct 31, 12:00 PM ET. SP+ projection: SMU 33, Syracuse 20. Big Al's pick: SMU (81%).

Full head to head

Offense

StatValueRank
Points per game36.420th
Yards per play7.1913th
Success rate49.6%18th
Explosive play rate14.4%27th
Yards per carry4.9683rd
Yards per pass attempt9.628th
Sack rate allowed3.3%24th
3rd down conversion46.3%29th

Defense

StatValueRank
Points allowed21.148th
Yards per play allowed5.2733rd
Success rate allowed36.6%26th
Explosive plays allowed10.2%46th
Yards per carry allowed4.8173rd
Yards per attempt allowed6.2533rd
Sack rate9.3%12th
3rd downs allowed27.0%5th

Players

Kendrick Raphael (RB), Kevin Jennings (QB), Marques White (DE), Randy Pittman (TE), Yamir Knight (WR).

Results

WeekOpponentResult
1at Florida StateW 27–24
2vs. UC DavisW 56–10
3at LouisvilleL 31–41
4vs. Missouri StateW 34–24
5vs. Boston CollegeW 25–16
7vs. VirginiaW 23–13
8vs. CaliforniaW 59–20

Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams. Stats from play-by-play; scoring counts FBS opponents only. Compare SMU with any team.

Site
Picks two teams at random. Any FBS team can come up.

How we picked it

Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.

Where the game is won

Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.

What these mean

  • SP+ Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted efficiency rating. Points better than an average FBS team on a neutral field.
  • PRIME A second opponent-adjusted rating, built from possession efficiency, on the same points scale. SOS is schedule difficulty; SOR is wins above what an average team would get against that schedule.
  • Elo A results-only rating that moves after each game based on the score and the opponent. 1500 is average.
  • Success rate Share of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.
  • Explosive rate Share of plays that are runs of 12+ yards or completions of 16+ yards.
  • Defense rows What opponents did against the team. Lower is better except sack rate and interception rate.
  • Projection Rating gap, plus 2.5 points for the home team, and games usually land within about 14 points of it. A coin flip is 50%.

Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.

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