College football, 2026 season
Data-driven picks for every FBS game + interactive charts you can customize to support any narrative (except Big 12 supremacy).
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Everything on this site starts with someone else's data, and we credit all of it. The projections, picks, rankings and tiers are our own math on top.
| Source | What we use | How often |
|---|---|---|
| CollegeFootballData.com, via the public cfbfastR files | Schedules, final scores, pregame Elo, play-by-play and box score stats, rosters | Usually posted Sunday or Monday morning after games |
| DraftKings lines (via The Odds API and CollegeFootballData.com) | The line and total on each game, and where each opened | Every morning, and before kickoffs Thursday to Saturday |
| Team logos and colors (ESPN's, via CollegeFootballData.com) | The logos on charts, game cards and team pages. They belong to the schools and are used only to identify the teams. | Preseason |
| SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update) | Overall, offense, defense and special teams ratings | Weekly |
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| AP Top 25 (via NCAA.com) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sunday afternoons |
| AFCA Coaches Poll (via Yahoo Sports, CBS Sports, SI) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sundays |
| 247Sports | Team talent composite, star counts, 2026 transfer portal rankings | Preseason |
| The NIL Standard | Estimated NIL roster values | Preseason |
| us-atlas (U.S. Census Bureau boundaries) | State shapes for the map | Once |
Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of the 138 FBS teams.
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About
Last updated October 26, 2026.
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Last updated October 26, 2026.
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Projected scores come from SP+ offense, defense and special teams, plus 2.5 points for the home team. Cards also show DraftKings' line and total as facts: we pick winners, not bets. Open Details for the full read, or Head to head for every stat.
Final scores against what we said before kickoff. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favored, unless he made the call himself on a toss-up or one of the week's biggest games. Ranked means in that week's AP poll. Open a game for the full preview as it stood going into the week.
Straight-up picks: did the pick win? Big Al's pick is the team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favor. Big Al and SP+ picks start in Week 8; Elo picks go back to Week 1.
Each column is that week's ranking. Arrows compare the latest poll to the week before. NR means not ranked.
Rankings come from cfbtrack.com. Week 1 is the preseason poll; each later week is the poll released before that week's games.
SP+ vs. payroll is the average, across a conference's teams with an NIL valuation (positive means its teams play better than their payrolls predict). Blue-chip ratio is the share of all its rostered players who were 4- or 5-star recruits.
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The columns on the right show where each team would be seeded under the other ratings. A dash means out.
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Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor. On the toss-ups and the biggest games, Big Al makes the call himself and says why.
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Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
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Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Week 9, Sat, Oct 31, 4:15 PM ET, Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK).
Big Al's pick: Oklahoma, 58% to win.
| Kickoff | Sat, Oct 31, 4:15 PM ET |
|---|---|
| TV | SEC Network |
| Where | Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK) |
| Weather | 66°, overcast, wind 8 mph |
| Line | Oklahoma −4.5, total 44.5 |
| Line movement | Opened Oklahoma −5.5; moved 1 point toward South Carolina. Total opened 43.5, up 1. |
| Series | Tied 1–1 |
| Last meeting | Oklahoma 26–7 in 2025 |
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Oklahoma by 1.8 | 55% | 44 |
| PRIME | Oklahoma by 3.0 | 58% | |
| Elo | Oklahoma | 60% | |
| The line | Oklahoma −4.5, opened −5.5 | 44.5, opened 43.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Wed, Oct 28, 2:21 PM ET.
Big Al's pick: Oklahoma. 58% to win
All three ratings favor Oklahoma, by 1.8 to 3.0 points. Oklahoma's best matchup is its pass rush, 5th in sack rate, against South Carolina's pass protection at 88th. South Carolina's way back in is its run defense, 35th in EPA per rush allowed, against Oklahoma's run game at 131st.
| SP+ offense | SP+ defense | |
|---|---|---|
| South Carolina | 33.6 (23rd) | 23.1 (47th) |
| Oklahoma | 24.3 (88th) | 14.2 (6th) |
| SUPLEX | SUPLEX allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| South Carolina | 56.7% (66th) | 54.0% (70th) |
| Oklahoma | 46.0% (126th) | 43.7% (11th) |
| Success rate | Explosive play rate | |
|---|---|---|
| South Carolina | 48.4% (27th) | 13.7% (37th) |
| Oklahoma | 39.4% (111th) | 9.3% (123rd) |
| Success rate allowed | Explosive plays allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| South Carolina | 41.9% (69th) | 10.6% (59th) |
| Oklahoma | 32.9% (6th) | 9.1% (18th) |
| Yards per carry | Yards per attempt | |
|---|---|---|
| South Carolina | 6.49 (5th) | 7.60 (70th) |
| Oklahoma | 3.98 (129th) | 8.04 (49th) |
| 3rd down conversion | 3rd downs allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| South Carolina | 48.0% (18th) | 35.8% (48th) |
| Oklahoma | 36.8% (90th) | 25.3% (3rd) |
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; South Carolina and Oklahoma are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 24, 2026.
| Player | Passing success rate (per dropback) | Passing yards |
|---|---|---|
| Lanorris Sellers, South Carolina | 43.4% (75th) | 1,594 (45th) |
| John Mateer, Oklahoma | 40.9% (100th) | 1,603 (43rd) |
| Player | Yards per carry | Rushing success rate |
|---|---|---|
| Matthew Fuller, South Carolina | 5.8 (82nd) | 42.0% (205th) |
| Lloyd Avant, Oklahoma | 4.5 (231st) | 44.4% (158th) |
| Player | Explosive catches (16+ yards) | Receiving yards |
|---|---|---|
| Mazeo Bennett, South Carolina | 8 (140th) | 334 (153rd) |
| Nyck Harbor, South Carolina | 7 (175th) | 288 (203rd) |
| Isaiah Sategna, Oklahoma | 11 (67th) | 578 (32nd) |
| Rocky Beers, Oklahoma | 9 (105th) | 395 (103rd) |
| Player | Sacks | INTs | Fumble recoveries | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tomiwa Durojaiye, South Carolina | 3 | 0 | 1 | 79th |
| Anthony Addison, South Carolina | 3 | 0 | 0 | 213th |
| Adepoju Adebawore, Oklahoma | 3 | 0 | 0 | 197th |
| Owen Heinecke, Oklahoma | 3 | 0 | 0 | 198th |
| Peyton Bowen, Oklahoma | 1 | 2 | 0 | 199th |
| Caleb Herring, South Carolina | 2 | 0 | 0 | 505th |
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 24, 2026.
On a neutral field, SP+ has South Carolina 0.7 points better (28th to 33rd). PRIME has Oklahoma by 0.5 instead. Elo, which only sees results, has Oklahoma ahead (27th to 34th).
| South Carolina | Oklahoma | |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ overall | 11.0 (28th) | 10.3 (33rd) |
| SP+ offense | 33.6 (23rd) | 24.3 (88th) |
| SP+ defense | 23.1 (47th) | 14.2 (6th) |
| SP+ special teams | 0.5 (4th) | 0.2 (42nd) |
| PRIME net | 11.0 (26th) | 11.5 (25th) |
| PRIME offense | 7.90 (23rd) | -2.49 (86th) |
| PRIME defense | 3.23 (42nd) | 13.03 (4th) |
| PRIME SOS | 2.7 (17th) | 7.8 (2nd) |
| PRIME SOR | 1.0 (41st) | 1.8 (22nd) |
| Elo | 1702 (34th) | 1719 (27th) |
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
South Carolina's offense ranks 20th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Oklahoma defense it faces ranks 2nd in EPA per play allowed. Oklahoma's offense ranks 101st against South Carolina's 76th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge. The biggest edge on the board is Oklahoma's passing game: 33rd in adjusted EPA per pass, against South Carolina's 107th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch. Adjust for opponents and South Carolina's offense climbs from 50th to 20th in EPA per play: it has done its work against good defenses.
| South Carolina | Oklahoma | |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play (adjusted) | +0.19 (20th) | +0.06 (101st) |
| EPA per pass (adjusted) | +0.23 (36th) | +0.23 (33rd) |
| EPA per rush (adjusted) | +0.13 (24th) | −0.04 (131st) |
| Success rate (adjusted) | 45.5% (30th) | 40.2% (86th) |
| Success rate, standard downs (adjusted) | 51.2% (14th) | 44.5% (109th) |
| Success rate, passing downs (adjusted) | 30.3% (75th) | 30.4% (70th) |
| Explosiveness (adjusted) | 0.93 (79th) | 0.88 (135th) |
| Line yards per carry (adjusted) | 3.21 (6th) | 2.83 (110th) |
| Open-field yards per carry (adjusted) | 1.27 (30th) | 1.07 (89th) |
| EPA per play allowed (adjusted) | +0.11 (76th) | −0.05 (2nd) |
| EPA per pass allowed (adjusted) | +0.26 (107th) | +0.07 (6th) |
| EPA per rush allowed (adjusted) | +0.03 (35th) | −0.02 (12th) |
| Success rate allowed (adjusted) | 41.1% (58th) | 33.3% (2nd) |
| Explosiveness allowed (adjusted) | 0.91 (22nd) | 0.95 (93rd) |
| Line yards allowed per carry (adjusted) | 2.80 (24th) | 2.82 (28th) |
| Open-field yards allowed per carry (adjusted) | 1.06 (51st) | 1.09 (56th) |
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
South Carolina is better running (13th in EPA per rush) than throwing (91st). Oklahoma's run defense ranks 20th, so that's strength on strength. Oklahoma is better throwing (74th in EPA per pass) than running (137th). South Carolina's pass defense ranks 118th, so that's an edge.
| South Carolina | Oklahoma | |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.18 (50th) | −0.02 (125th) |
| EPA per pass | +0.16 (91st) | +0.21 (74th) |
| EPA per rush | +0.24 (13th) | −0.19 (137th) |
| EPA per 3rd-down play | +0.82 (6th) | +0.11 (128th) |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.13 (90th) | −0.12 (4th) |
| EPA per pass allowed | +0.36 (118th) | −0.04 (8th) |
| EPA per rush allowed | −0.03 (32nd) | −0.06 (20th) |
| EPA per 3rd-down play allowed | +0.45 (86th) | +0.13 (9th) |
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
South Carolina outscores FBS opponents by 10.8 a game, and Oklahoma by 3.9. South Carolina's offense ranks 21st in scoring, and the Oklahoma defense it faces ranks 24th in points allowed. Oklahoma's offense ranks 110th against South Carolina's 79th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge.
| South Carolina | Oklahoma | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored | 36.1 (21st) | 21.6 (110th) |
| Points allowed | 25.3 (79th) | 17.7 (24th) |
Per game, FBS opponents only.
South Carolina's best matchup is its run game: its offense ranks 5th in yards per carry, and Oklahoma's defense ranks 49th in yards per carry allowed. Oklahoma has no clear edge here. Its best is success rate, 111th, against a defense ranked 69th in success rate allowed.
| South Carolina | Oklahoma | |
|---|---|---|
| Pass yards / game | 244.3 (53rd) | 229.9 (70th) |
| Rush yards / game | 223.4 (17th) | 121.1 (124th) |
| Yards per play | 6.81 (24th) | 5.73 (100th) |
| Yards per carry | 6.49 (5th) | 3.98 (129th) |
| Yards per attempt | 7.60 (70th) | 8.04 (49th) |
| Completion % | 64.0% (65th) | 69.0% (36th) |
| Success rate | 48.4% (27th) | 39.4% (111th) |
| Explosive play rate | 13.7% (37th) | 9.3% (123rd) |
| 3rd down conversion | 48.0% (18th) | 36.8% (90th) |
| Sack rate (taken) | 6.3% (88th) | 7.4% (105th) |
| INT rate (thrown) | 2.2% (64th) | 4.0% (122nd) |
| SUPLEX | 56.7% (66th) | 46.0% (126th) |
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
South Carolina's defense is best placed to stop the run: it ranks 32nd in yards per carry allowed, and Oklahoma's offense is bottom-20 in yards per carry (129th). That's a mismatch. Oklahoma's defense is best placed to get home: it ranks 5th in sack rate, and South Carolina's offense is middle of the pack at avoiding sacks (88th). That's a mismatch.
| South Carolina | Oklahoma | |
|---|---|---|
| Pass yards allowed / game | 225.6 (94th) | 158.9 (8th) |
| Rush yards allowed / game | 128.1 (37th) | 133.6 (45th) |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.47 (51st) | 5.03 (18th) |
| Yards per carry allowed | 4.21 (32nd) | 4.54 (49th) |
| Yards per attempt allowed | 7.11 (71st) | 6.21 (31st) |
| Success rate allowed | 41.9% (69th) | 32.9% (6th) |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.6% (59th) | 9.1% (18th) |
| 3rd downs allowed | 35.8% (48th) | 25.3% (3rd) |
| Sack rate (generated) | 7.5% (38th) | 10.9% (5th) |
| INT rate (generated) | 1.8% (92nd) | 2.2% (77th) |
| SUPLEX allowed | 54.0% (70th) | 43.7% (11th) |
What opponents managed against them.
South Carolina is −0.4 in turnover margin a game and Oklahoma is −1.0. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 3-point edge for South Carolina. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.
| South Carolina | Oklahoma | |
|---|---|---|
| Interceptions thrown / game | 0.71 (59th) | 1.14 (121st) |
| Fumbles lost / game | 0.57 (76th) | 1.00 (127th) |
| Giveaways / game | 1.29 (71st) | 2.14 (132nd) |
| Interceptions / game | 0.57 (84th) | 0.57 (84th) |
| Fumbles recovered / game | 0.29 (94th) | 0.57 (49th) |
| Takeaways / game | 0.86 (107th) | 1.14 (66th) |
| Turnover margin / game | -0.4 (100th) | -1.0 (126th) |
Per game, from play-by-play.
South Carolina has the more talented roster (15th in the 247Sports talent composite; Oklahoma is 17th). But Oklahoma plays further above its talent: −1.5 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to South Carolina's −1.6.
| South Carolina | Oklahoma | |
|---|---|---|
| Talent composite | 862.9 (15th) | 851.1 (17th) |
| Blue-chip ratio | 52.5% (14th) | 53.0% (12th) |
| Players on roster | 110 (75th) | 110 (75th) |
| Rated by 247Sports | 80 (60th) | 83 (47th) |
| 5-star players | 4 (11th) | 4 (11th) |
| 4-star players | 38 (16th) | 40 (15th) |
| 3-star players | 36 (124th) | 37 (123rd) |
| Below 3-star | 2 (68th) | 2 (68th) |
| 2026 transfers in | 28 (41st) | 18 (97th) |
| Transfer share | 35.0% (45th) | 21.7% (99th) |
| SP+ vs. talent | -1.6 (73rd) | -1.5 (72nd) |
| Returning production | 69.0% (24th) | 63.2% (38th) |
| Returning passing production | 65.4% (60th) | 92.1% (41st) |
| Returning rushing production | 80.1% (40th) | 121.6% (12th) |
| Returning receiving production | 67.2% (20th) | 41.6% (62nd) |
| 2026 recruiting class (national rank) | 14 (14th) | 15 (15th) |
| Recruiting rank, last four classes | 17.5 (18th) | 11.0 (11th) |
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Oklahoma's roster is valued at $32.6M, South Carolina's at $23.2M. Dollar for dollar, South Carolina plays better: +2.5 points of SP+ above what its payroll predicts, to −5.5 for Oklahoma.
| South Carolina | Oklahoma | |
|---|---|---|
| Roster value | $23.2M (30th) | $32.6M (14th) |
| Roster cost per win | $5.8M (43rd) | $8.1M (59th) |
| Projected wins per $1M | 0.29 (31st) | 0.18 (62nd) |
| SP+ vs. payroll | +2.5 (26th) | -5.5 (55th) |
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
South Carolina is +0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is roster (+1.1). Oklahoma is +0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (−1.4).
| South Carolina | Oklahoma | |
|---|---|---|
| BAWA (total) | +0.5 (57th) | +0.5 (57th) |
| Schedule BAWA | -0.5 (113th) | -1.4 (134th) |
| Roster BAWA | +1.1 (16th) | +1.2 (15th) |
| Coach BAWA | +0.1 (62nd) | +0.1 (62nd) |
| Luck BAWA | -0.3 (86th) | +0.6 (33rd) |
Big Al Wins Added: where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Big Al picks Oklahoma, 58% to win. All three ratings favor the same team. Oklahoma's best matchup is its pass rush, 5th in sack rate, against South Carolina's pass protection at 88th.
Sat, Oct 31, 4:15 PM ET at Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK), on SEC Network.
DraftKings has Oklahoma −4.5, total 44.5. Big Al picks winners, not bets.
It's tied 1–1. Last meeting: Oklahoma won 26–7 in 2025.
South Carolina's is Lanorris Sellers (1,594 passing yards this season); Oklahoma's is John Mateer (1,603 passing yards this season).
Numbers through the games of Oct 24, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
South Carolina and Oklahoma: team pages with every stat and national rank. Compare any two teams.