College football, 2026 season
Data-driven picks for every FBS game + interactive charts you can customize to support any narrative (except Big 12 supremacy).
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Everything on this site starts with someone else's data, and we credit all of it. The projections, picks, rankings and tiers are our own math on top.
| Source | What we use | How often |
|---|---|---|
| CollegeFootballData.com, via the public cfbfastR files | Schedules, final scores, pregame Elo, play-by-play and box score stats, rosters | Usually posted Sunday or Monday morning after games |
| DraftKings lines (via The Odds API and CollegeFootballData.com) | The line and total on each game, and where each opened | Every morning, and before kickoffs Thursday to Saturday |
| Team logos and colors (ESPN's, via CollegeFootballData.com) | The logos on charts, game cards and team pages. They belong to the schools and are used only to identify the teams. | Preseason |
| SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update) | Overall, offense, defense and special teams ratings | Weekly |
| PRIME (primecfb.com) | Net, offense, defense and special teams ratings, strength of schedule, strength of record | Weekly |
| AP Top 25 (via NCAA.com) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sunday afternoons |
| AFCA Coaches Poll (via Yahoo Sports, CBS Sports, SI) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sundays |
| 247Sports | Team talent composite, star counts, 2026 transfer portal rankings | Preseason |
| The NIL Standard | Estimated NIL roster values | Preseason |
| us-atlas (U.S. Census Bureau boundaries) | State shapes for the map | Once |
Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of the 138 FBS teams.
About
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About
Last updated October 26, 2026.
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Last updated October 26, 2026.
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Projected scores come from SP+ offense, defense and special teams, plus 2.5 points for the home team. Cards also show DraftKings' line and total as facts: we pick winners, not bets. Open Details for the full read, or Head to head for every stat.
Final scores against what we said before kickoff. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favored, unless he made the call himself on a toss-up or one of the week's biggest games. Ranked means in that week's AP poll. Open a game for the full preview as it stood going into the week.
Straight-up picks: did the pick win? Big Al's pick is the team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favor. Big Al and SP+ picks start in Week 8; Elo picks go back to Week 1.
Each column is that week's ranking. Arrows compare the latest poll to the week before. NR means not ranked.
Rankings come from cfbtrack.com. Week 1 is the preseason poll; each later week is the poll released before that week's games.
SP+ vs. payroll is the average, across a conference's teams with an NIL valuation (positive means its teams play better than their payrolls predict). Blue-chip ratio is the share of all its rostered players who were 4- or 5-star recruits.
Ranks are national, out of 138 FBS teams. A top-10 team also counts toward the top 25 and top 40, and everyone outside the last cutoff counts as weak. Open a conference to see its teams.
Seeds 1–4 get first-round byes. Seeds 5–8 host the first round.
The columns on the right show where each team would be seeded under the other ratings. A dash means out.
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor. On the toss-ups and the biggest games, Big Al makes the call himself and says why.
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
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Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Week 9, Sat, Oct 31, 7:45 PM ET, Razorback Stadium.
Big Al's pick: Missouri, 75% to win.
| Rivalry | Battle Line Rivalry |
|---|---|
| Kickoff | Sat, Oct 31, 7:45 PM ET |
| TV | SEC Network |
| Where | Razorback Stadium |
| Weather | 71°, wind 8 mph |
| Line | Missouri −10, total 49.5 |
| Line movement | Opened Missouri −10.5; moved 0.5 points toward Arkansas. Total opened 48.5, up 1. |
| Series | Missouri leads 13–4 |
| Last meeting | Missouri 31–17 in 2025 |
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Missouri by 12.1 | 81% | 52 |
| PRIME | Missouri by 7.7 | 71% | |
| Elo | Missouri | 73% | |
| The line | Missouri −10, opened −10.5 | 49.5, opened 48.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Wed, Oct 28, 2:21 PM ET.
Big Al's pick: Missouri. 75% to win
All three ratings favor Missouri, by 7.7 to 12.1 points. Missouri's best matchup is its early-down defense, 16th in SUPLEX allowed, against Arkansas' early-down offense at 120th. Arkansas' way back in is its ball security, 36th in interceptions thrown per pass, against Missouri's takeaway defense at 67th.
| SP+ offense | SP+ defense | |
|---|---|---|
| Missouri | 30.9 (42nd) | 16.5 (11th) |
| Arkansas | 27.7 (60th) | 28.3 (85th) |
| SUPLEX | SUPLEX allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Missouri | 53.3% (89th) | 44.1% (16th) |
| Arkansas | 48.4% (120th) | 61.4% (116th) |
| Success rate | Explosive play rate | |
|---|---|---|
| Missouri | 40.9% (95th) | 14.2% (29th) |
| Arkansas | 41.1% (91st) | 9.2% (125th) |
| Success rate allowed | Explosive plays allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Missouri | 37.3% (36th) | 12.8% (101st) |
| Arkansas | 47.6% (121st) | 14.4% (120th) |
| Yards per carry | Yards per attempt | |
|---|---|---|
| Missouri | 4.89 (87th) | 8.41 (40th) |
| Arkansas | 4.10 (126th) | 6.19 (116th) |
| 3rd down conversion | 3rd downs allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Missouri | 43.3% (51st) | 37.4% (57th) |
| Arkansas | 40.4% (70th) | 46.8% (124th) |
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Missouri and Arkansas are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 24, 2026.
| Player | Passing success rate (per dropback) | Passing yards |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Simmons, Missouri | 46.0% (49th) | 1,786 (22nd) |
| KJ Jackson, Arkansas | 46.0% (50th) | 1,478 (59th) |
| Player | Yards per carry | Rushing success rate |
|---|---|---|
| Jamal Roberts, Missouri | 5.3 (135th) | 34.4% (307th) |
| Braylen Russell, Arkansas | 3.6 (324th) | 42.1% (203rd) |
| Player | Explosive catches (16+ yards) | Receiving yards |
|---|---|---|
| Cayden Lee, Missouri | 19 (5th) | 670 (16th) |
| Donovan Olugbode, Missouri | 12 (49th) | 543 (38th) |
| Chris Marshall, Arkansas | 11 (53rd) | 601 (29th) |
| Ty Lockwood, Arkansas | 1 (585th) | 129 (513th) |
| Player | Sacks | INTs | Fumble recoveries | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daeden Hopkins, Missouri | 3 | 0 | 0 | 178th |
| Jason Dowell, Missouri | 2 | 0 | 1 | 179th |
| Miguel Mitchell, Arkansas | 1 | 2 | 0 | 105th |
| Quincy Rhodes Jr., Arkansas | 2 | 0 | 1 | 106th |
| Donta Simpson, Missouri | 2 | 0 | 0 | 424th |
| Ben Bogle, Arkansas | 1 | 0 | 1 | 272nd |
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 24, 2026.
On a neutral field, SP+ has Missouri 14.6 points better (18th to 71st). PRIME also has Missouri ahead, by 10.2. Elo, which only sees results, also has Missouri ahead (24th to 65th).
| Missouri | Arkansas | |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ overall | 14.2 (18th) | -0.4 (71st) |
| SP+ offense | 30.9 (42nd) | 27.7 (60th) |
| SP+ defense | 16.5 (11th) | 28.3 (85th) |
| SP+ special teams | -0.2 (92nd) | 0.2 (42nd) |
| PRIME net | 9.9 (30th) | -0.3 (72nd) |
| PRIME offense | -0.11 (63rd) | -0.49 (68th) |
| PRIME defense | 8.71 (14th) | 0.58 (62nd) |
| PRIME SOS | 1.6 (32nd) | 3.8 (12th) |
| PRIME SOR | 1.8 (22nd) | 0.1 (66th) |
| Elo | 1747 (24th) | 1515 (65th) |
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Missouri's offense ranks 46th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Arkansas defense it faces ranks 98th in EPA per play allowed. Arkansas' offense ranks 79th against Missouri's 25th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Missouri's offense against Arkansas' defense. The biggest edge on the board is Missouri's passing game: 27th in adjusted EPA per pass, against Arkansas' 84th-ranked defense. Adjust for opponents and Arkansas' offense climbs from 107th to 79th in EPA per play: it has done its work against good defenses.
| Missouri | Arkansas | |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play (adjusted) | +0.13 (46th) | +0.09 (79th) |
| EPA per pass (adjusted) | +0.26 (27th) | +0.17 (83rd) |
| EPA per rush (adjusted) | +0.06 (74th) | +0.04 (95th) |
| Success rate (adjusted) | 39.0% (102nd) | 42.9% (55th) |
| Success rate, standard downs (adjusted) | 44.5% (112th) | 49.5% (32nd) |
| Success rate, passing downs (adjusted) | 29.4% (93rd) | 28.0% (115th) |
| Explosiveness (adjusted) | 0.95 (39th) | 0.92 (103rd) |
| Line yards per carry (adjusted) | 2.81 (113th) | 2.88 (95th) |
| Open-field yards per carry (adjusted) | 1.27 (32nd) | 0.95 (122nd) |
| EPA per play allowed (adjusted) | +0.04 (25th) | +0.14 (98th) |
| EPA per pass allowed (adjusted) | +0.15 (45th) | +0.22 (84th) |
| EPA per rush allowed (adjusted) | +0.01 (27th) | +0.11 (111th) |
| Success rate allowed (adjusted) | 36.0% (9th) | 42.9% (87th) |
| Explosiveness allowed (adjusted) | 0.94 (75th) | 0.94 (70th) |
| Line yards allowed per carry (adjusted) | 2.75 (17th) | 3.05 (97th) |
| Open-field yards allowed per carry (adjusted) | 0.94 (15th) | 1.14 (75th) |
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Missouri is better throwing (24th in EPA per pass) than running (101st). Arkansas' pass defense ranks 93rd, so that's a mismatch. Arkansas is better throwing (82nd in EPA per pass) than running (121st). Missouri's pass defense ranks 42nd, so the defense has the better of it. On third down, Arkansas has the edge: its offense ranks 56th in EPA per third-down play, and the defense it faces ranks 119th.
| Missouri | Arkansas | |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.17 (55th) | +0.05 (107th) |
| EPA per pass | +0.39 (24th) | +0.18 (82nd) |
| EPA per rush | +0.03 (101st) | −0.02 (121st) |
| EPA per 3rd-down play | +0.57 (39th) | +0.51 (56th) |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.01 (28th) | +0.20 (117th) |
| EPA per pass allowed | +0.09 (42nd) | +0.24 (93rd) |
| EPA per rush allowed | −0.02 (37th) | +0.23 (130th) |
| EPA per 3rd-down play allowed | +0.59 (119th) | +0.45 (86th) |
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Missouri outscores FBS opponents by 11.5 a game, and Arkansas is outscored by 5.7. Missouri's offense ranks 54th in scoring, and the Arkansas defense it faces ranks 96th in points allowed. Arkansas' offense ranks 114th against Missouri's 31st-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Missouri's offense against Arkansas' defense.
| Missouri | Arkansas | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored | 31.1 (54th) | 21.0 (114th) |
| Points allowed | 19.6 (31st) | 26.7 (96th) |
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Missouri's best matchup is big plays: its offense ranks 29th in explosive play rate, and Arkansas' defense ranks 120th in explosive plays allowed. That's a mismatch. Arkansas has no clear edge here. Its best is 3rd down conversion rate, 70th, against a defense ranked 57th in 3rd down conversions allowed.
| Missouri | Arkansas | |
|---|---|---|
| Pass yards / game | 271.6 (27th) | 238.9 (60th) |
| Rush yards / game | 161.4 (76th) | 126.6 (120th) |
| Yards per play | 6.53 (42nd) | 5.11 (127th) |
| Yards per carry | 4.89 (87th) | 4.10 (126th) |
| Yards per attempt | 8.41 (40th) | 6.19 (116th) |
| Completion % | 62.4% (75th) | 54.8% (112th) |
| Success rate | 40.9% (95th) | 41.1% (91st) |
| Explosive play rate | 14.2% (29th) | 9.2% (125th) |
| 3rd down conversion | 43.3% (51st) | 40.4% (70th) |
| Sack rate (taken) | 3.0% (18th) | 5.3% (66th) |
| INT rate (thrown) | 0.9% (16th) | 1.5% (36th) |
| SUPLEX | 53.3% (89th) | 48.4% (120th) |
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Missouri's defense is best placed to win on early downs: it ranks 16th in SUPLEX allowed, and Arkansas' offense is bottom-20 in SUPLEX (120th). That's a mismatch.
| Missouri | Arkansas | |
|---|---|---|
| Pass yards allowed / game | 228.0 (99th) | 214.6 (73rd) |
| Rush yards allowed / game | 129.4 (39th) | 156.9 (78th) |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.43 (49th) | 6.91 (120th) |
| Yards per carry allowed | 4.40 (42nd) | 5.23 (94th) |
| Yards per attempt allowed | 6.73 (54th) | 9.51 (130th) |
| Success rate allowed | 37.3% (36th) | 47.6% (121st) |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.8% (101st) | 14.4% (120th) |
| 3rd downs allowed | 37.4% (57th) | 46.8% (124th) |
| Sack rate (generated) | 7.1% (49th) | 4.8% (103rd) |
| INT rate (generated) | 2.5% (67th) | 3.2% (44th) |
| SUPLEX allowed | 44.1% (16th) | 61.4% (116th) |
What opponents managed against them.
Missouri is +0.7 in turnover margin a game and Arkansas is +0.1. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 3-point edge for Missouri. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.
| Missouri | Arkansas | |
|---|---|---|
| Interceptions thrown / game | 0.29 (17th) | 0.57 (40th) |
| Fumbles lost / game | 0.29 (20th) | 0.57 (76th) |
| Giveaways / game | 0.57 (7th) | 1.14 (53rd) |
| Interceptions / game | 0.86 (45th) | 0.71 (64th) |
| Fumbles recovered / game | 0.43 (68th) | 0.57 (49th) |
| Takeaways / game | 1.29 (54th) | 1.29 (54th) |
| Turnover margin / game | +0.7 (18th) | +0.1 (61st) |
Per game, from play-by-play.
Missouri has the more talented roster (19th in the 247Sports talent composite; Arkansas is 36th). Missouri also plays further above its talent: +5.1 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Arkansas' −5.6.
| Missouri | Arkansas | |
|---|---|---|
| Talent composite | 808.4 (19th) | 745.5 (36th) |
| Blue-chip ratio | 39.6% (18th) | 25.3% (33rd) |
| Players on roster | 111 (67th) | 118 (25th) |
| Rated by 247Sports | 91 (19th) | 83 (47th) |
| 5-star players | 0 (37th) | 0 (37th) |
| 4-star players | 36 (18th) | 21 (32nd) |
| 3-star players | 51 (103rd) | 61 (66th) |
| Below 3-star | 4 (38th) | 1 (86th) |
| 2026 transfers in | 30 (31st) | 43 (8th) |
| Transfer share | 33.0% (52nd) | 51.8% (18th) |
| SP+ vs. talent | +5.1 (37th) | -5.6 (102nd) |
| Returning production | 42.0% (62nd) | 14.5% (109th) |
| Returning passing production | -2.3% (124th) | 18.7% (71st) |
| Returning rushing production | 77.5% (43rd) | 14.5% (100th) |
| Returning receiving production | 32.9% (76th) | 11.7% (120th) |
| 2026 recruiting class (national rank) | 34 (34th) | 46 (46th) |
| Recruiting rank, last four classes | 27.0 (21st) | 32.8 (27th) |
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Missouri's roster is valued at $26.4M, Arkansas' at $23.4M. Missouri also plays better per dollar: +2.9 points of SP+ above what its payroll predicts, to −9.0 for Arkansas.
| Missouri | Arkansas | |
|---|---|---|
| Roster value | $26.4M (21st) | $23.4M (28th) |
| Roster cost per win | $5.3M (32nd) | $7.8M (57th) |
| Projected wins per $1M | 0.30 (30th) | 0.14 (68th) |
| SP+ vs. payroll | +2.9 (23rd) | -9.0 (63rd) |
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
Missouri is +1.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is roster (+1.0). Arkansas is −0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (−0.9).
| Missouri | Arkansas | |
|---|---|---|
| BAWA (total) | +1.5 (30th) | -0.5 (89th) |
| Schedule BAWA | -0.3 (105th) | -0.9 (127th) |
| Roster BAWA | +1.0 (18th) | +0.4 (44th) |
| Coach BAWA | +1.0 (28th) | -0.5 (91st) |
| Luck BAWA | -0.1 (75th) | +0.5 (36th) |
Big Al Wins Added: where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Big Al picks Missouri, 75% to win. All three ratings favor the same team. Missouri's best matchup is its early-down defense, 16th in SUPLEX allowed, against Arkansas' early-down offense at 120th.
Sat, Oct 31, 7:45 PM ET at Razorback Stadium, on SEC Network.
DraftKings has Missouri −10, total 49.5. Big Al picks winners, not bets.
Missouri leads 13–4. Last meeting: Missouri won 31–17 in 2025.
Missouri's is Austin Simmons (1,786 passing yards this season); Arkansas' is KJ Jackson (1,478 passing yards this season).
Numbers through the games of Oct 24, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Missouri and Arkansas: team pages with every stat and national rank. Compare any two teams.