College football, 2026 season
Data-driven picks for every FBS game + interactive charts you can customize to support any narrative (except Big 12 supremacy).
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Everything on this site starts with someone else's data, and we credit all of it. The projections, picks, rankings and tiers are our own math on top.
| Source | What we use | How often |
|---|---|---|
| CollegeFootballData.com, via the public cfbfastR files | Schedules, final scores, pregame Elo, play-by-play and box score stats, rosters | Usually posted Sunday or Monday morning after games |
| DraftKings lines (via The Odds API and CollegeFootballData.com) | The line and total on each game, and where each opened | Every morning, and before kickoffs Thursday to Saturday |
| Team logos and colors (ESPN's, via CollegeFootballData.com) | The logos on charts, game cards and team pages. They belong to the schools and are used only to identify the teams. | Preseason |
| SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update) | Overall, offense, defense and special teams ratings | Weekly |
| PRIME (primecfb.com) | Net, offense, defense and special teams ratings, strength of schedule, strength of record | Weekly |
| AP Top 25 (via NCAA.com) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sunday afternoons |
| AFCA Coaches Poll (via Yahoo Sports, CBS Sports, SI) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sundays |
| 247Sports | Team talent composite, star counts, 2026 transfer portal rankings | Preseason |
| The NIL Standard | Estimated NIL roster values | Preseason |
| us-atlas (U.S. Census Bureau boundaries) | State shapes for the map | Once |
Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of the 138 FBS teams.
About
Every stat and term on the site, explained like you're five. Or like you're a grown adult who never asked what EPA means and is now too embarrassed to.
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About
Last updated October 26, 2026.
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Big Al's CFB Lab publishes college football statistics, projections and opinions. Everything here is for information and entertainment. Projections and picks are estimates from public data and can be wrong, sometimes badly.
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Last updated October 26, 2026.
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Projected scores come from SP+ offense, defense and special teams, plus 2.5 points for the home team. Cards also show DraftKings' line and total as facts: we pick winners, not bets. Open Details for the full read, or Head to head for every stat.
"Off by" is how far the final margin landed from the projected margin.
Straight-up picks: did the pick win? Big Al's pick is the team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favor. Big Al and SP+ picks start in Week 8; Elo picks go back to Week 1.
Each column is that week's ranking. Arrows compare the latest poll to the week before. NR means not ranked.
Rankings come from cfbtrack.com. Week 1 is the preseason poll; each later week is the poll released before that week's games.
SP+ vs. payroll is the average, across a conference's teams with an NIL valuation (positive means its teams play better than their payrolls predict). Blue-chip ratio is the share of all its rostered players who were 4- or 5-star recruits.
Ranks are national, out of 138 FBS teams. A top-10 team also counts toward the top 25 and top 40, and everyone outside the last cutoff counts as weak. Open a conference to see its teams.
Seeds 1–4 get first-round byes. Seeds 5–8 host the first round.
The columns on the right show where each team would be seeded under the other ratings. A dash means out.
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
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Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Week 9, Sat, Oct 31, 7:30 PM ET, DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium.
Big Al's pick: Texas, 88% to win.
| Kickoff | Sat, Oct 31, 7:30 PM ET |
|---|---|
| TV | ESPN |
| Where | DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium |
| Weather | 76°, cloudy, wind 3 mph |
| Line | Texas −20.5, total 50.5 |
| Line movement | Hasn't moved since it opened. |
| Series | Texas leads 4–2 |
| Last meeting | Texas 45–38 in 2025 |
| Mississippi State injuries | Kamario Taylor (QB), out for season |
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Texas by 16.9 | 89% | 56 |
| PRIME | Texas by 14.6 | 85% | |
| Elo | Texas | 91% | |
| The line | Texas −20.5 | 50.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Wed, Oct 28, 2:21 PM ET.
Big Al's pick: Texas. 88% to win
All three ratings favor Texas, by 14.6 to 16.9 points, and it isn't close. Texas' best matchup is its 3rd down offense, 53rd in 3rd down conversion, against Mississippi State's 3rd down defense at 113th. Mississippi State's way back in is its run defense, 44th in yards per carry allowed, against Texas' run game at 98th. We left out the edges built on Taylor, who's out.
| SP+ offense | SP+ defense | |
|---|---|---|
| Mississippi State | 31.9 (35th) | 26.3 (68th) |
| Texas | 34.6 (16th) | 14.5 (7th) |
| SUPLEX | SUPLEX allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Mississippi State | 59.2% (42nd) | 57.8% (97th) |
| Texas | 57.7% (56th) | 38.9% (3rd) |
| Success rate | Explosive play rate | |
|---|---|---|
| Mississippi State | 45.5% (49th) | 14.2% (31st) |
| Texas | 44.7% (61st) | 11.5% (87th) |
| Success rate allowed | Explosive plays allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Mississippi State | 46.2% (114th) | 10.8% (61st) |
| Texas | 33.8% (8th) | 7.1% (6th) |
| Yards per carry | Yards per attempt | |
|---|---|---|
| Mississippi State | 5.70 (35th) | 7.50 (76th) |
| Texas | 4.78 (98th) | 8.05 (48th) |
| 3rd down conversion | 3rd downs allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Mississippi State | 39.2% (75th) | 45.1% (113th) |
| Texas | 42.9% (53rd) | 32.4% (26th) |
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Mississippi State and Texas are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 24, 2026.
| Player | Passing success rate (per dropback) | Passing yards |
|---|---|---|
| Taylor, Mississippi State | 46.9% (42nd) | 1,466 (62nd) |
| Brad Jackson, Texas | 51.2% (16th) | 1,630 (36th) |
| Player | Yards per carry | Rushing success rate |
|---|---|---|
| Fluff Bothwell, Mississippi State | 5.7 (91st) | 51.1% (54th) |
| Raleek Brown, Texas | 4.9 (175th) | 37.3% (273rd) |
| Player | Explosive catches (16+ yards) | Receiving yards |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Evans III, Mississippi State | 17 (12th) | 653 (19th) |
| Sanfrisco Magee, Mississippi State | 9 (99th) | 360 (129th) |
| Ryan Wingo, Texas | 11 (69th) | 464 (61st) |
| Chris Dawn Jr., Texas | 7 (177th) | 400 (100th) |
| Player | Sacks | INTs | Fumble recoveries | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Simmons, Texas | 8 | 0 | 1 | 1st |
| Rasheem Biles, Texas | 1 | 3 | 0 | 84th |
| Jaray Bledsoe, Mississippi State | 2 | 0 | 0 | 420th |
| Kendel Dolby, Mississippi State | 0 | 0 | 2 | 421st |
| Marcus Williams, Mississippi State | 2 | 0 | 0 | 422nd |
| Graceson Littleton, Texas | 0 | 1 | 1 | 522nd |
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 24, 2026.
On a neutral field, SP+ has Texas 14.4 points better (8th to 52nd). PRIME also has Texas ahead, by 12.1. Elo, which only sees results, also has Texas ahead (9th to 58th).
| Mississippi State | Texas | |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ overall | 6.0 (52nd) | 20.4 (8th) |
| SP+ offense | 31.9 (35th) | 34.6 (16th) |
| SP+ defense | 26.3 (68th) | 14.5 (7th) |
| SP+ special teams | 0.4 (11th) | 0.3 (28th) |
| PRIME net | 10.8 (27th) | 22.9 (4th) |
| PRIME offense | 10.17 (14th) | 5.75 (33rd) |
| PRIME defense | -0.03 (67th) | 16.70 (1st) |
| PRIME SOS | 6.7 (6th) | 8.0 (1st) |
| PRIME SOR | 1.6 (28th) | 2.8 (9th) |
| Elo | 1555 (58th) | 1902 (9th) |
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Mississippi State's offense ranks 27th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Texas defense it faces ranks 12th in EPA per play allowed. Texas' offense ranks 78th against Mississippi State's 75th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge. The biggest edge on the board is Texas' efficiency: 45th in adjusted success rate, against Mississippi State's 82nd-ranked defense. Adjust for opponents and Mississippi State's offense climbs from 67th to 27th in EPA per play: it has done its work against good defenses.
| Mississippi State | Texas | |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play (adjusted) | +0.17 (27th) | +0.09 (78th) |
| EPA per pass (adjusted) | +0.23 (41st) | +0.21 (54th) |
| EPA per rush (adjusted) | +0.12 (25th) | +0.05 (87th) |
| Success rate (adjusted) | 48.2% (11th) | 43.6% (45th) |
| Success rate, standard downs (adjusted) | 51.7% (12th) | 47.6% (50th) |
| Success rate, passing downs (adjusted) | 32.2% (34th) | 31.6% (45th) |
| Explosiveness (adjusted) | 0.94 (66th) | 0.91 (113th) |
| Line yards per carry (adjusted) | 3.10 (25th) | 2.87 (98th) |
| Open-field yards per carry (adjusted) | 1.31 (24th) | 1.04 (99th) |
| EPA per play allowed (adjusted) | +0.11 (75th) | −0.00 (12th) |
| EPA per pass allowed (adjusted) | +0.21 (78th) | +0.09 (13th) |
| EPA per rush allowed (adjusted) | +0.04 (50th) | −0.02 (11th) |
| Success rate allowed (adjusted) | 42.6% (82nd) | 33.0% (1st) |
| Explosiveness allowed (adjusted) | 0.89 (6th) | 0.91 (23rd) |
| Line yards allowed per carry (adjusted) | 3.03 (94th) | 2.67 (7th) |
| Open-field yards allowed per carry (adjusted) | 0.96 (19th) | 1.01 (37th) |
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Mississippi State is about as good throwing (63rd in EPA per pass) as running (60th). Texas is better throwing (76th in EPA per pass) than running (111th). Mississippi State's pass defense ranks 103rd, so that's an edge. On third down, Texas has the edge: its offense ranks 88th in EPA per third-down play, and the defense it faces ranks 119th.
| Mississippi State | Texas | |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.14 (67th) | +0.05 (107th) |
| EPA per pass | +0.24 (63rd) | +0.20 (76th) |
| EPA per rush | +0.12 (60th) | +0.01 (111th) |
| EPA per 3rd-down play | +0.46 (69th) | +0.41 (88th) |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.14 (94th) | 0.00 (23rd) |
| EPA per pass allowed | +0.28 (103rd) | +0.05 (27th) |
| EPA per rush allowed | −0.01 (44th) | −0.06 (20th) |
| EPA per 3rd-down play allowed | +0.59 (119th) | +0.37 (58th) |
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Mississippi State outscores FBS opponents by 2.3 a game, and Texas by 11.6. Mississippi State's offense ranks 61st in scoring, and the Texas defense it faces ranks 29th in points allowed. Texas' offense ranks 57th against Mississippi State's 102nd-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Texas' offense against Mississippi State's defense.
| Mississippi State | Texas | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored | 30.0 (61st) | 30.7 (57th) |
| Points allowed | 27.7 (102nd) | 19.1 (29th) |
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Mississippi State has no clear edge here. Its best is yards per carry, 35th, against a defense ranked 21st in yards per carry allowed. Texas' best matchup is third downs: its offense ranks 53rd in 3rd down conversion rate, and Mississippi State's defense ranks 113th in 3rd down conversions allowed. That's a mismatch.
| Mississippi State | Texas | |
|---|---|---|
| Pass yards / game | 265.6 (35th) | 223.0 (77th) |
| Rush yards / game | 189.9 (41st) | 163.3 (75th) |
| Yards per play | 6.36 (55th) | 5.98 (86th) |
| Yards per carry | 5.70 (35th) | 4.78 (98th) |
| Yards per attempt | 7.50 (76th) | 8.05 (48th) |
| Completion % | 59.3% (87th) | 67.5% (40th) |
| Success rate | 45.5% (49th) | 44.7% (61st) |
| Explosive play rate | 14.2% (31st) | 11.5% (87th) |
| 3rd down conversion | 39.2% (75th) | 42.9% (53rd) |
| Sack rate (taken) | 7.5% (106th) | 8.9% (117th) |
| INT rate (thrown) | 2.4% (74th) | 3.6% (115th) |
| SUPLEX | 59.2% (42nd) | 57.7% (56th) |
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Mississippi State's defense is best placed to stop the run: it ranks 44th in yards per carry allowed, and Texas' offense is bottom-40 in yards per carry (98th). Texas' defense is best placed to get home: it ranks 43rd in sack rate, and Mississippi State's offense is bottom-40 at avoiding sacks (106th). That's a mismatch.
| Mississippi State | Texas | |
|---|---|---|
| Pass yards allowed / game | 268.6 (126th) | 189.3 (34th) |
| Rush yards allowed / game | 135.1 (48th) | 127.0 (35th) |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.25 (96th) | 4.62 (7th) |
| Yards per carry allowed | 4.44 (44th) | 4.06 (21st) |
| Yards per attempt allowed | 8.39 (107th) | 5.50 (10th) |
| Success rate allowed | 46.2% (114th) | 33.8% (8th) |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.8% (61st) | 7.1% (6th) |
| 3rd downs allowed | 45.1% (113th) | 32.4% (26th) |
| Sack rate (generated) | 6.3% (66th) | 7.3% (43rd) |
| INT rate (generated) | 0.9% (133rd) | 2.5% (69th) |
| SUPLEX allowed | 57.8% (97th) | 38.9% (3rd) |
What opponents managed against them.
Neither team has a real turnover edge: Mississippi State is −0.6 a game and Texas −0.4.
| Mississippi State | Texas | |
|---|---|---|
| Interceptions thrown / game | 0.86 (84th) | 1.00 (105th) |
| Fumbles lost / game | 0.57 (76th) | 0.57 (76th) |
| Giveaways / game | 1.43 (88th) | 1.57 (107th) |
| Interceptions / game | 0.29 (119th) | 0.86 (45th) |
| Fumbles recovered / game | 0.57 (49th) | 0.29 (94th) |
| Takeaways / game | 0.86 (107th) | 1.14 (66th) |
| Turnover margin / game | -0.6 (113th) | -0.4 (98th) |
Per game, from play-by-play.
Texas has the more talented roster (2nd in the 247Sports talent composite; Mississippi State is 20th). Texas also plays further above its talent: +0.2 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Mississippi State's −2.9.
| Mississippi State | Texas | |
|---|---|---|
| Talent composite | 804.5 (20th) | 985.2 (2nd) |
| Blue-chip ratio | 32.0% (24th) | 63.3% (7th) |
| Players on roster | 115 (40th) | 109 (82nd) |
| Rated by 247Sports | 97 (5th) | 90 (23rd) |
| 5-star players | 0 (37th) | 15 (1st) |
| 4-star players | 31 (19th) | 42 (13th) |
| 3-star players | 66 (52nd) | 33 (128th) |
| Below 3-star | 0 (113th) | 0 (113th) |
| 2026 transfers in | 28 (41st) | 22 (63rd) |
| Transfer share | 28.9% (70th) | 24.4% (90th) |
| SP+ vs. talent | -2.9 (84th) | +0.2 (64th) |
| Returning production | 33.9% (84th) | 72.1% (19th) |
| Returning passing production | -0.2% (119th) | 85.4% (51st) |
| Returning rushing production | 87.3% (31st) | 126.4% (10th) |
| Returning receiving production | 27.9% (86th) | 55.0% (37th) |
| 2026 recruiting class (national rank) | 23 (23rd) | 7 (7th) |
| Recruiting rank, last four classes | 26.5 (20th) | 4.2 (3rd) |
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Texas' roster is valued at $47.5M, Mississippi State's at $21.2M. Dollar for dollar, Mississippi State plays better: −0.5 points of SP+ above what its payroll predicts, to −3.6 for Texas.
| Mississippi State | Texas | |
|---|---|---|
| Roster value | $21.2M (42nd) | $47.5M (1st) |
| Roster cost per win | $5.3M (33rd) | $9.5M (64th) |
| Projected wins per $1M | 0.26 (39th) | 0.18 (61st) |
| SP+ vs. payroll | -0.5 (39th) | -3.6 (50th) |
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
Mississippi State is +0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (−1.4). Texas is +1.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is roster (+2.2). Mississippi State's record is running 1.2 wins ahead of its play on luck alone, so it's not as good as the record says.
| Mississippi State | Texas | |
|---|---|---|
| BAWA (total) | +0.5 (57th) | +1.5 (30th) |
| Schedule BAWA | -1.4 (135th) | -1.6 (137th) |
| Roster BAWA | +0.8 (22nd) | +2.2 (2nd) |
| Coach BAWA | -0.1 (75th) | +0.9 (32nd) |
| Luck BAWA | +1.2 (7th) | +0.0 (66th) |
Big Al Wins Added: where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Big Al picks Texas, 88% to win. All three ratings favor the same team. Texas' best matchup is its 3rd down offense, 53rd in 3rd down conversion, against Mississippi State's 3rd down defense at 113th.
Sat, Oct 31, 7:30 PM ET at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, on ESPN.
DraftKings has Texas −20.5, total 50.5. Big Al picks winners, not bets.
Texas leads 4–2. Last meeting: Texas won 45–38 in 2025.
Mississippi State's is Taylor (1,466 passing yards this season); Texas' is Brad Jackson (1,630 passing yards this season).
Mississippi State: Taylor (QB), out for season.
Numbers through the games of Oct 24, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Mississippi State and Texas: team pages with every stat and national rank. Compare any two teams.