College football, 2026 season
Data-driven picks for every FBS game + interactive charts you can customize to support any narrative (except Big 12 supremacy).
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Everything on this site starts with someone else's data, and we credit all of it. The projections, picks, rankings and tiers are our own math on top.
| Source | What we use | How often |
|---|---|---|
| CollegeFootballData.com, via the public cfbfastR files | Schedules, final scores, pregame Elo, play-by-play and box score stats, rosters | Usually posted Sunday or Monday morning after games |
| DraftKings lines (via The Odds API and CollegeFootballData.com) | The line and total on each game, and where each opened | Every morning, and before kickoffs Thursday to Saturday |
| Team logos and colors (ESPN's, via CollegeFootballData.com) | The logos on charts, game cards and team pages. They belong to the schools and are used only to identify the teams. | Preseason |
| SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update) | Overall, offense, defense and special teams ratings | Weekly |
| PRIME (primecfb.com) | Net, offense, defense and special teams ratings, strength of schedule, strength of record | Weekly |
| AP Top 25 (via NCAA.com) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sunday afternoons |
| AFCA Coaches Poll (via Yahoo Sports, CBS Sports, SI) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sundays |
| 247Sports | Team talent composite, star counts, 2026 transfer portal rankings | Preseason |
| The NIL Standard | Estimated NIL roster values | Preseason |
| us-atlas (U.S. Census Bureau boundaries) | State shapes for the map | Once |
Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of the 138 FBS teams.
About
Every stat and term on the site, explained like you're five. Or like you're a grown adult who never asked what EPA means and is now too embarrassed to.
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About
Last updated October 26, 2026.
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Big Al's CFB Lab publishes college football statistics, projections and opinions. Everything here is for information and entertainment. Projections and picks are estimates from public data and can be wrong, sometimes badly.
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Last updated October 26, 2026.
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Projected scores come from SP+ offense, defense and special teams, plus 2.5 points for the home team. Cards also show DraftKings' line and total as facts: we pick winners, not bets. Open Details for the full read, or Head to head for every stat.
Final scores against what we said before kickoff. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favored, unless he made the call himself on a toss-up or one of the week's biggest games. Ranked means in that week's AP poll. Open a game for the full preview as it stood going into the week.
Straight-up picks: did the pick win? Big Al's pick is the team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favor. Big Al and SP+ picks start in Week 8; Elo picks go back to Week 1.
Each column is that week's ranking. Arrows compare the latest poll to the week before. NR means not ranked.
Rankings come from cfbtrack.com. Week 1 is the preseason poll; each later week is the poll released before that week's games.
SP+ vs. payroll is the average, across a conference's teams with an NIL valuation (positive means its teams play better than their payrolls predict). Blue-chip ratio is the share of all its rostered players who were 4- or 5-star recruits.
Ranks are national, out of 138 FBS teams. A top-10 team also counts toward the top 25 and top 40, and everyone outside the last cutoff counts as weak. Open a conference to see its teams.
Seeds 1–4 get first-round byes. Seeds 5–8 host the first round.
The columns on the right show where each team would be seeded under the other ratings. A dash means out.
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Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor. On the toss-ups and the biggest games, Big Al makes the call himself and says why.
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
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Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Kennesaw State at Middle Tennessee
Week 9, Wed, Oct 28, 7:00 PM ET, Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium.
Big Al's pick: Kennesaw State, 52% to win.
| Kickoff | Wed, Oct 28, 7:00 PM ET |
|---|---|
| TV | CBSSN |
| Where | Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium |
| Weather | 68°, clear, wind 3 mph |
| Line | Kennesaw State −1.5, total 49.5 |
| Line movement | Opened Middle Tennessee −2.5; moved 4 points toward Kennesaw State. |
| Series | Tied 1–1 |
| Last meeting | Kennesaw State 24–16 in 2025 |
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Middle Tennessee by 1.1 | 53% | 48 |
| PRIME | Middle Tennessee by 3.9 | 61% | |
| Elo | Kennesaw State | 55% | |
| The line | Kennesaw State −1.5, opened Middle Tennessee −2.5 | 49.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Wed, Oct 28, 2:21 PM ET.
Big Al's pick: Middle Tennessee. 53% to win
The ratings split and average out to about 50-50, with Middle Tennessee ahead by a hair. Middle Tennessee's best matchup is its passing game, 74th in EPA per pass, against Kennesaw State's pass defense at 113th. Kennesaw State's way back in is its pass protection, 22nd in sacks allowed per dropback, against Middle Tennessee's pass rush at 124th.
| SP+ offense | SP+ defense | |
|---|---|---|
| Kennesaw State | 17.4 (121st) | 30.7 (105th) |
| Middle Tennessee | 18.1 (117th) | 33.7 (119th) |
| SUPLEX | SUPLEX allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Kennesaw State | 56.0% (76th) | 61.0% (113th) |
| Middle Tennessee | — | 56.4% (84th) |
| Success rate | Explosive play rate | |
|---|---|---|
| Kennesaw State | 44.0% (68th) | 10.5% (108th) |
| Middle Tennessee | — | — |
| Success rate allowed | Explosive plays allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Kennesaw State | 44.6% (97th) | 12.4% (97th) |
| Middle Tennessee | 44.5% (96th) | 13.4% (108th) |
| Yards per carry | Yards per attempt | |
|---|---|---|
| Kennesaw State | 4.49 (113th) | 6.77 (102nd) |
| Middle Tennessee | — | — |
| 3rd down conversion | 3rd downs allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Kennesaw State | 40.0% (71st) | 37.8% (61st) |
| Middle Tennessee | — | 35.2% (43rd) |
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Kennesaw State and Middle Tennessee are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 24, 2026.
| Player | Passing success rate (per dropback) | Passing yards |
|---|---|---|
| Rickie Collins, Kennesaw State | 45.0% (56th) | 1,452 (69th) |
| Roman Gagliano, Middle Tennessee | 40.4% (110th) | 1,461 (66th) |
| Player | Yards per carry | Rushing success rate |
|---|---|---|
| Alan Woods III, Kennesaw State | 4.0 (288th) | 45.1% (147th) |
| Player | Explosive catches (16+ yards) | Receiving yards |
|---|---|---|
| Javon Rogers, Kennesaw State | 8 (131st) | 354 (133rd) |
| Brayden Munroe, Kennesaw State | 7 (160th) | 352 (134th) |
| Cam'Ron Lacy, Middle Tennessee | 9 (98th) | 441 (70th) |
| Neo Clifton, Middle Tennessee | 4 (375th) | 228 (308th) |
| Player | Sacks | INTs | Fumble recoveries | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Korey Smith, Middle Tennessee | 1 | 1 | 2 | 60th |
| Kalen Woods, Middle Tennessee | 0 | 1 | 2 | 176th |
| Tay'Vion Lawson, Kennesaw State | 0 | 2 | 0 | 376th |
| Ugonna Nwoha, Kennesaw State | 2 | 0 | 0 | 377th |
| James Johnson, Middle Tennessee | 1 | 1 | 0 | 416th |
| Baron Hopson, Kennesaw State | 0 | 0 | 1 | 926th |
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 24, 2026.
On a neutral field, SP+ has Kennesaw State 1.4 points better (120th to 125th). PRIME has Middle Tennessee by 1.4 instead. Elo, which only sees results, also has Kennesaw State ahead (113th to 124th).
| Kennesaw State | Middle Tennessee | |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ overall | -13.8 (120th) | -15.2 (125th) |
| SP+ offense | 17.4 (121st) | 18.1 (117th) |
| SP+ defense | 30.7 (105th) | 33.7 (119th) |
| SP+ special teams | -0.5 (124th) | 0.4 (11th) |
| PRIME net | -14.6 (125th) | -13.2 (122nd) |
| PRIME offense | -7.90 (122nd) | -5.95 (109th) |
| PRIME defense | -4.87 (106th) | -6.56 (119th) |
| PRIME SOS | -3.9 (83rd) | -5.9 (99th) |
| PRIME SOR | -3.2 (130th) | -0.5 (84th) |
| Elo | 1264 (113th) | 1172 (124th) |
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Kennesaw State's offense ranks 100th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Middle Tennessee defense it faces ranks 113th in EPA per play allowed. Middle Tennessee's offense ranks 74th against Kennesaw State's 111th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Middle Tennessee's offense against Kennesaw State's defense. The biggest edge on the board is Kennesaw State's offensive line in the run game: 87th in adjusted line yards per carry, against Middle Tennessee's 137th-ranked defense. Adjust for opponents and Kennesaw State's defense falls from 73rd to 111th in EPA per play allowed: a lot of that came against soft offenses.
| Kennesaw State | Middle Tennessee | |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play (adjusted) | +0.06 (100th) | +0.10 (74th) |
| EPA per pass (adjusted) | +0.16 (91st) | +0.18 (74th) |
| EPA per rush (adjusted) | +0.03 (100th) | +0.04 (92nd) |
| Success rate (adjusted) | 39.8% (91st) | 39.6% (94th) |
| Success rate, standard downs (adjusted) | 45.3% (94th) | 45.4% (92nd) |
| Success rate, passing downs (adjusted) | 29.8% (82nd) | 29.7% (87th) |
| Explosiveness (adjusted) | 0.93 (82nd) | 0.94 (54th) |
| Line yards per carry (adjusted) | 2.92 (87th) | 2.95 (68th) |
| Open-field yards per carry (adjusted) | 0.86 (136th) | 1.14 (65th) |
| EPA per play allowed (adjusted) | +0.17 (111th) | +0.17 (113th) |
| EPA per pass allowed (adjusted) | +0.27 (113th) | +0.21 (76th) |
| EPA per rush allowed (adjusted) | +0.09 (91st) | +0.14 (120th) |
| Success rate allowed (adjusted) | 43.9% (99th) | 47.6% (132nd) |
| Explosiveness allowed (adjusted) | 0.94 (78th) | 0.95 (99th) |
| Line yards allowed per carry (adjusted) | 3.05 (96th) | 3.34 (137th) |
| Open-field yards allowed per carry (adjusted) | 0.99 (30th) | 1.16 (82nd) |
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Kennesaw State is better running (81st in EPA per rush) than throwing (100th). Middle Tennessee's run defense ranks 100th. Middle Tennessee is better running (68th in EPA per rush) than throwing (106th). Kennesaw State's run defense ranks 69th.
| Kennesaw State | Middle Tennessee | |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.07 (100th) | +0.09 (88th) |
| EPA per pass | +0.11 (100th) | +0.10 (106th) |
| EPA per rush | +0.08 (81st) | +0.10 (68th) |
| EPA per 3rd-down play | +0.26 (113th) | +0.23 (118th) |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.10 (73rd) | +0.14 (94th) |
| EPA per pass allowed | +0.19 (75th) | +0.19 (75th) |
| EPA per rush allowed | +0.07 (69th) | +0.13 (100th) |
| EPA per 3rd-down play allowed | +0.48 (97th) | +0.46 (94th) |
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Kennesaw State is outscored by 5.0 a game, and Middle Tennessee is outscored by 4.3. Kennesaw State's offense ranks 124th in scoring, and the Middle Tennessee defense it faces ranks 100th in points allowed. Middle Tennessee's offense ranks 103rd against Kennesaw State's 77th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge.
| Kennesaw State | Middle Tennessee | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored | 20.0 (124th) | 23.3 (103rd) |
| Points allowed | 25.0 (77th) | 27.6 (100th) |
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Kennesaw State's best matchup is staying on schedule: its offense ranks 68th in success rate, and Middle Tennessee's defense ranks 96th in success rate allowed.
| Kennesaw State | Middle Tennessee | |
|---|---|---|
| Pass yards / game | 232.0 (68th) | — () |
| Rush yards / game | 134.1 (108th) | — () |
| Yards per play | 5.61 (106th) | — () |
| Yards per carry | 4.49 (113th) | — () |
| Yards per attempt | 6.77 (102nd) | — () |
| Completion % | 67.5% (41st) | — () |
| Success rate | 44.0% (68th) | — () |
| Explosive play rate | 10.5% (108th) | — () |
| 3rd down conversion | 40.0% (71st) | — () |
| Sack rate (taken) | 3.2% (22nd) | — () |
| INT rate (thrown) | 2.5% (77th) | — () |
| SUPLEX | 56.0% (76th) | — () |
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Middle Tennessee's defense is best placed to get off the field on third down: it ranks 43rd in 3rd down conversions allowed, and Kennesaw State's offense is middle of the pack in 3rd down conversion rate (71st).
| Kennesaw State | Middle Tennessee | |
|---|---|---|
| Pass yards allowed / game | 231.0 (102nd) | 193.0 (37th) |
| Rush yards allowed / game | 160.9 (84th) | 194.4 (119th) |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.21 (91st) | 6.04 (85th) |
| Yards per carry allowed | 5.03 (82nd) | 6.00 (129th) |
| Yards per attempt allowed | 7.63 (82nd) | 6.31 (34th) |
| Success rate allowed | 44.6% (97th) | 44.5% (96th) |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.4% (97th) | 13.4% (108th) |
| 3rd downs allowed | 37.8% (61st) | 35.2% (43rd) |
| Sack rate (generated) | 2.8% (134th) | 3.6% (124th) |
| INT rate (generated) | 1.4% (110th) | 2.3% (72nd) |
| SUPLEX allowed | 61.0% (113th) | 56.4% (84th) |
What opponents managed against them.
| Kennesaw State | Middle Tennessee | |
|---|---|---|
| Interceptions thrown / game | 0.88 (101st) | — () |
| Fumbles lost / game | 0.38 (42nd) | — () |
| Giveaways / game | 1.25 (64th) | — () |
| Interceptions / game | 0.63 (77th) | 0.71 (64th) |
| Fumbles recovered / game | 0.63 (40th) | 0.00 (131st) |
| Takeaways / game | 1.25 (63rd) | 0.71 (118th) |
| Turnover margin / game | 0.0 (66th) | — () |
Per game, from play-by-play.
Middle Tennessee has the more talented roster (109th in the 247Sports talent composite; Kennesaw State is 133rd). But Kennesaw State plays further above its talent: −3.8 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Middle Tennessee's −9.5.
| Kennesaw State | Middle Tennessee | |
|---|---|---|
| Talent composite | 502.9 (133rd) | 571.5 (109th) |
| Blue-chip ratio | 8.9% (75th) | 3.1% (106th) |
| Players on roster | 99 (133rd) | 107 (94th) |
| Rated by 247Sports | 45 (134th) | 64 (116th) |
| 5-star players | 0 (37th) | 0 (37th) |
| 4-star players | 4 (88th) | 2 (106th) |
| 3-star players | 39 (122nd) | 61 (66th) |
| Below 3-star | 2 (68th) | 1 (86th) |
| 2026 transfers in | 29 (34th) | 19 (84th) |
| Transfer share | 64.4% (9th) | 29.7% (63rd) |
| SP+ vs. talent | -3.8 (92nd) | -9.5 (122nd) |
| Returning production | 6.1% (124th) | 32.5% (85th) |
| Returning passing production | 0.0% (109th) | 39.2% (67th) |
| Returning rushing production | -3.8% (123rd) | 60.1% (58th) |
| Returning receiving production | 13.2% (116th) | 26.2% (90th) |
| 2026 recruiting class (national rank) | 120 (120th) | 119 (119th) |
| Recruiting rank, last four classes | 144.8 (136th) | 114.0 (119th) |
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Kennesaw State is −2.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is luck (−1.6). Middle Tennessee is +0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (−1.6). Kennesaw State's record is 1.6 wins worse than its play on bad luck, so it's better than the record says.
| Kennesaw State | Middle Tennessee | |
|---|---|---|
| BAWA (total) | -2.5 (129th) | +0.5 (57th) |
| Schedule BAWA | +0.9 (46th) | +1.3 (30th) |
| Roster BAWA | -1.3 (132nd) | -0.7 (115th) |
| Coach BAWA | -0.6 (93rd) | -1.6 (128th) |
| Luck BAWA | -1.6 (133rd) | +1.5 (4th) |
Big Al Wins Added: where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Big Al picks Middle Tennessee, 53% to win. SP+ and PRIME agree; Elo has Kennesaw State. Middle Tennessee's best matchup is its passing game, 74th in EPA per pass, against Kennesaw State's pass defense at 113th.
Wed, Oct 28, 7:00 PM ET at Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium, on CBSSN.
DraftKings has Kennesaw State −1.5, total 49.5. Big Al picks winners, not bets.
It's tied 1–1. Last meeting: Kennesaw State won 24–16 in 2025.
Kennesaw State's is Rickie Collins (1,452 passing yards this season); Middle Tennessee's is Roman Gagliano (1,461 passing yards this season).
Numbers through the games of Oct 24, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Kennesaw State and Middle Tennessee: team pages with every stat and national rank. Compare any two teams.