College football, 2026 season
Data-driven picks for every FBS game + interactive charts you can customize to support any narrative (except Big 12 supremacy).
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Everything on this site starts with someone else's data, and we credit all of it. The projections, picks, rankings and tiers are our own math on top.
| Source | What we use | How often |
|---|---|---|
| CollegeFootballData.com, via the public cfbfastR files | Schedules, final scores, pregame Elo, play-by-play and box score stats, rosters | Usually posted Sunday or Monday morning after games |
| DraftKings lines (via The Odds API and CollegeFootballData.com) | The line and total on each game, and where each opened | Every morning, and before kickoffs Thursday to Saturday |
| Team logos and colors (ESPN's, via CollegeFootballData.com) | The logos on charts, game cards and team pages. They belong to the schools and are used only to identify the teams. | Preseason |
| SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update) | Overall, offense, defense and special teams ratings | Weekly |
| PRIME (primecfb.com) | Net, offense, defense and special teams ratings, strength of schedule, strength of record | Weekly |
| AP Top 25 (via NCAA.com) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sunday afternoons |
| AFCA Coaches Poll (via Yahoo Sports, CBS Sports, SI) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sundays |
| 247Sports | Team talent composite, star counts, 2026 transfer portal rankings | Preseason |
| The NIL Standard | Estimated NIL roster values | Preseason |
| us-atlas (U.S. Census Bureau boundaries) | State shapes for the map | Once |
Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of the 138 FBS teams.
About
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About
Last updated October 26, 2026.
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Big Al's CFB Lab publishes college football statistics, projections and opinions. Everything here is for information and entertainment. Projections and picks are estimates from public data and can be wrong, sometimes badly.
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Last updated October 26, 2026.
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Projected scores come from SP+ offense, defense and special teams, plus 2.5 points for the home team. Cards also show DraftKings' line and total as facts: we pick winners, not bets. Open Details for the full read, or Head to head for every stat.
"Off by" is how far the final margin landed from the projected margin.
Straight-up picks: did the pick win? Big Al's pick is the team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favor. Big Al and SP+ picks start in Week 8; Elo picks go back to Week 1.
Each column is that week's ranking. Arrows compare the latest poll to the week before. NR means not ranked.
Rankings come from cfbtrack.com. Week 1 is the preseason poll; each later week is the poll released before that week's games.
SP+ vs. payroll is the average, across a conference's teams with an NIL valuation (positive means its teams play better than their payrolls predict). Blue-chip ratio is the share of all its rostered players who were 4- or 5-star recruits.
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Seeds 1–4 get first-round byes. Seeds 5–8 host the first round.
The columns on the right show where each team would be seeded under the other ratings. A dash means out.
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
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Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Florida International at Liberty
Week 9, Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM ET, Williams Stadium (VA).
Big Al's pick: Liberty, 90% to win.
| Kickoff | Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM ET |
|---|---|
| TV | CBSSN |
| Where | Williams Stadium (VA) |
| Weather | 61°, wind 5 mph |
| Line | Liberty −14, total 44.5 |
| Line movement | Opened Liberty −11.5; moved 2.5 points toward Liberty. |
| Series | Liberty leads 3–1 |
| Last meeting | Florida International 34–27 in 2025 |
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Liberty by 17.9 | 90% | 41 |
| PRIME | Liberty by 18.4 | 91% | |
| Elo | Liberty | 92% | |
| The line | Liberty −14, opened −11.5 | 44.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Wed, Oct 28, 2:21 PM ET.
Big Al's pick: Liberty. 91% to win
All three ratings favor Liberty, by 17.9 to 18.4 points, and it isn't close. Liberty's best matchup is its scoring defense, 7th in points allowed, against Florida International's scoring offense at 120th. Florida International's way back in is its pass protection, 10th in sacks allowed per dropback, against Liberty's pass rush at 97th.
| SP+ offense | SP+ defense | |
|---|---|---|
| Florida International | 17.9 (118th) | 25.4 (61st) |
| Liberty | 28.5 (56th) | 21.0 (34th) |
| SUPLEX | SUPLEX allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Florida International | 48.2% (123rd) | 48.9% (36th) |
| Liberty | 66.5% (12th) | 44.0% (15th) |
| Success rate | Explosive play rate | |
|---|---|---|
| Florida International | 40.0% (105th) | 11.5% (90th) |
| Liberty | 51.4% (12th) | 16.5% (8th) |
| Success rate allowed | Explosive plays allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Florida International | 37.0% (31st) | 11.1% (74th) |
| Liberty | 31.9% (3rd) | 10.5% (56th) |
| Yards per carry | Yards per attempt | |
|---|---|---|
| Florida International | 4.00 (128th) | 7.04 (91st) |
| Liberty | 6.07 (16th) | 10.87 (4th) |
| 3rd down conversion | 3rd downs allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Florida International | 44.4% (44th) | 29.9% (15th) |
| Liberty | 51.5% (10th) | 26.9% (4th) |
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Florida International and Liberty are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 24, 2026.
| Player | Passing success rate (per dropback) | Passing yards |
|---|---|---|
| J.J. Kohl, Florida International | 41.3% (94th) | 1,602 (44th) |
| Deshawn Purdie, Liberty | 40.7% (106th) | 1,226 (90th) |
| Player | Yards per carry | Rushing success rate |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Carrie, Florida International | 3.0 (346th) | 35.4% (294th) |
| Kam Davis, Liberty | 7.0 (27th) | 62.7% (5th) |
| Player | Explosive catches (16+ yards) | Receiving yards |
|---|---|---|
| Maguire Anderson, Florida International | 14 (25th) | 569 (34th) |
| JoJo Stone, Florida International | 4 (344th) | 181 (396th) |
| Jamari Person, Liberty | 7 (161st) | 238 (289th) |
| Darius Copeland, Liberty | 2 (538th) | 138 (493rd) |
| Player | Sacks | INTs | Fumble recoveries | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenton Simmons, Florida International | 4 | 0 | 0 | 45th |
| DeeJay Holmes Jr., Florida International | 2 | 0 | 1 | 140th |
| Elisha Baldridge, Florida International | 2 | 0 | 0 | 334th |
| Deuce Spurlock, Liberty | 1 | 1 | 0 | 384th |
| Markus Clark, Liberty | 2 | 0 | 0 | 385th |
| Ronald Moore, Liberty | 0 | 1 | 1 | 386th |
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 24, 2026.
On a neutral field, SP+ has Liberty 15.4 points better (45th to 100th). PRIME also has Liberty ahead, by 15.9. Elo, which only sees results, also has Liberty ahead (18th to 90th).
| Florida International | Liberty | |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ overall | -7.9 (100th) | 7.5 (45th) |
| SP+ offense | 17.9 (118th) | 28.5 (56th) |
| SP+ defense | 25.4 (61st) | 21.0 (34th) |
| SP+ special teams | -0.4 (113th) | 0.0 (68th) |
| PRIME net | -8.2 (98th) | 7.7 (35th) |
| PRIME offense | -9.04 (128th) | 2.30 (43rd) |
| PRIME defense | 1.18 (57th) | 4.55 (32nd) |
| PRIME SOS | -9.8 (132nd) | -10.1 (134th) |
| PRIME SOR | -2.1 (118th) | 0.9 (44th) |
| Elo | 1401 (90th) | 1770 (18th) |
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Florida International's offense ranks 117th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Liberty defense it faces ranks 20th in EPA per play allowed. Liberty's offense ranks 25th against Florida International's 40th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge. The biggest edge on the board is Liberty's offensive line in the run game: 9th in adjusted line yards per carry, against Florida International's 54th-ranked defense. Adjust for opponents and Liberty's offense climbs from 45th to 25th in EPA per play: it has done its work against good defenses.
| Florida International | Liberty | |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play (adjusted) | +0.03 (117th) | +0.18 (25th) |
| EPA per pass (adjusted) | +0.17 (87th) | +0.23 (34th) |
| EPA per rush (adjusted) | −0.03 (130th) | +0.16 (5th) |
| Success rate (adjusted) | 38.3% (113th) | 46.2% (21st) |
| Success rate, standard downs (adjusted) | 44.0% (116th) | 51.1% (16th) |
| Success rate, passing downs (adjusted) | 31.0% (58th) | 31.9% (36th) |
| Explosiveness (adjusted) | 0.88 (136th) | 0.93 (80th) |
| Line yards per carry (adjusted) | 2.76 (124th) | 3.19 (9th) |
| Open-field yards per carry (adjusted) | 0.84 (137th) | 1.25 (36th) |
| EPA per play allowed (adjusted) | +0.06 (40th) | +0.03 (20th) |
| EPA per pass allowed (adjusted) | +0.15 (39th) | +0.10 (14th) |
| EPA per rush allowed (adjusted) | +0.03 (46th) | +0.06 (64th) |
| Success rate allowed (adjusted) | 40.1% (44th) | 37.8% (21st) |
| Explosiveness allowed (adjusted) | 0.92 (40th) | 0.94 (87th) |
| Line yards allowed per carry (adjusted) | 2.90 (54th) | 2.93 (63rd) |
| Open-field yards allowed per carry (adjusted) | 1.03 (44th) | 1.15 (76th) |
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Florida International is better throwing (94th in EPA per pass) than running (126th). Liberty's pass defense ranks 15th, so the defense has the better of it. Liberty is about as good throwing (47th in EPA per pass) as running (39th).
| Florida International | Liberty | |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.03 (113th) | +0.19 (45th) |
| EPA per pass | +0.13 (94th) | +0.29 (47th) |
| EPA per rush | −0.05 (126th) | +0.16 (39th) |
| EPA per 3rd-down play | +0.50 (58th) | +0.44 (76th) |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.01 (28th) | −0.06 (9th) |
| EPA per pass allowed | +0.03 (19th) | +0.01 (15th) |
| EPA per rush allowed | 0.00 (45th) | −0.02 (37th) |
| EPA per 3rd-down play allowed | +0.25 (27th) | +0.22 (19th) |
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Florida International outscores FBS opponents by 3.8 a game, and Liberty by 17.6. Florida International's offense ranks 120th in scoring, and the Liberty defense it faces ranks 7th in points allowed. Liberty's offense ranks 49th against Florida International's 21st-ranked defense. Both defenses have the edge on the offenses they face.
| Florida International | Liberty | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored | 20.1 (120th) | 31.6 (49th) |
| Points allowed | 16.3 (21st) | 14.0 (7th) |
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Florida International has no clear edge here. Its best is explosive play rate, 90th, against a defense ranked 56th in explosive plays allowed. Liberty's best matchup is big plays: its offense ranks 8th in explosive play rate, and Florida International's defense ranks 74th in explosive plays allowed. That's a mismatch.
| Florida International | Liberty | |
|---|---|---|
| Pass yards / game | 246.6 (49th) | 192.6 (106th) |
| Rush yards / game | 130.7 (111th) | 234.1 (13th) |
| Yards per play | 5.50 (117th) | 7.38 (12th) |
| Yards per carry | 4.00 (128th) | 6.07 (16th) |
| Yards per attempt | 7.04 (91st) | 10.87 (4th) |
| Completion % | 56.7% (102nd) | 71.0% (24th) |
| Success rate | 40.0% (105th) | 51.4% (12th) |
| Explosive play rate | 11.5% (90th) | 16.5% (8th) |
| 3rd down conversion | 44.4% (44th) | 51.5% (10th) |
| Sack rate (taken) | 2.4% (10th) | 8.2% (115th) |
| INT rate (thrown) | 3.3% (105th) | 0.0% (1st) |
| SUPLEX | 48.2% (123rd) | 66.5% (12th) |
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Florida International's defense is best placed to get home: it ranks 63rd in sack rate, and Liberty's offense is bottom-20 at avoiding sacks (115th). Liberty's defense is best placed to win on early downs: it ranks 15th in SUPLEX allowed, and Florida International's offense is bottom-20 in SUPLEX (123rd). That's a mismatch.
| Florida International | Liberty | |
|---|---|---|
| Pass yards allowed / game | 159.4 (9th) | 180.3 (21st) |
| Rush yards allowed / game | 115.9 (20th) | 125.6 (34th) |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.24 (30th) | 4.78 (10th) |
| Yards per carry allowed | 4.48 (46th) | 4.65 (57th) |
| Yards per attempt allowed | 6.38 (36th) | 5.13 (4th) |
| Success rate allowed | 37.0% (31st) | 31.9% (3rd) |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.1% (74th) | 10.5% (56th) |
| 3rd downs allowed | 29.9% (15th) | 26.9% (4th) |
| Sack rate (generated) | 6.4% (63rd) | 5.0% (97th) |
| INT rate (generated) | 2.9% (57th) | 2.9% (58th) |
| SUPLEX allowed | 48.9% (36th) | 44.0% (15th) |
What opponents managed against them.
Liberty is +0.7 in turnover margin a game and Florida International is −0.3. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 5-point edge for Liberty. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.
| Florida International | Liberty | |
|---|---|---|
| Interceptions thrown / game | 1.14 (121st) | 0.00 (1st) |
| Fumbles lost / game | 0.29 (20th) | 0.71 (99th) |
| Giveaways / game | 1.43 (88th) | 0.71 (18th) |
| Interceptions / game | 0.71 (64th) | 1.00 (22nd) |
| Fumbles recovered / game | 0.43 (68th) | 0.43 (68th) |
| Takeaways / game | 1.14 (66th) | 1.43 (39th) |
| Turnover margin / game | -0.3 (89th) | +0.7 (18th) |
Per game, from play-by-play.
Liberty has the more talented roster (79th in the 247Sports talent composite; Florida International is 90th). Liberty also plays further above its talent: +9.3 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Florida International's −4.4.
| Florida International | Liberty | |
|---|---|---|
| Talent composite | 607.6 (90th) | 633.4 (79th) |
| Blue-chip ratio | 8.6% (78th) | 4.2% (98th) |
| Players on roster | 105 (106th) | 104 (112th) |
| Rated by 247Sports | 70 (98th) | 71 (93rd) |
| 5-star players | 0 (37th) | 0 (37th) |
| 4-star players | 6 (73rd) | 3 (94th) |
| 3-star players | 61 (66th) | 68 (37th) |
| Below 3-star | 3 (53rd) | 0 (113th) |
| 2026 transfers in | 20 (76th) | 29 (34th) |
| Transfer share | 28.6% (72nd) | 40.8% (30th) |
| SP+ vs. talent | -4.4 (96th) | +9.3 (19th) |
| Returning production | 31.6% (86th) | 38.3% (71st) |
| Returning passing production | -0.6% (120th) | 74.6% (57th) |
| Returning rushing production | 16.4% (97th) | 45.0% (69th) |
| Returning receiving production | 48.9% (49th) | 21.1% (99th) |
| 2026 recruiting class (national rank) | 102 (102nd) | 109 (109th) |
| Recruiting rank, last four classes | 99.0 (101st) | 102.8 (106th) |
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Florida International is −0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (+1.6). Liberty is +2.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (+1.8). Florida International's record is 0.9 wins worse than its play on bad luck, so it's better than the record says.
| Florida International | Liberty | |
|---|---|---|
| BAWA (total) | -0.5 (89th) | +2.5 (8th) |
| Schedule BAWA | +1.6 (15th) | +1.8 (6th) |
| Roster BAWA | -0.4 (97th) | -0.1 (78th) |
| Coach BAWA | -0.8 (103rd) | +0.7 (36th) |
| Luck BAWA | -0.9 (116th) | +0.1 (63rd) |
Big Al Wins Added: where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Big Al picks Liberty, 91% to win. All three ratings favor the same team. Liberty's best matchup is its scoring defense, 7th in points allowed, against Florida International's scoring offense at 120th.
Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM ET at Williams Stadium (VA), on CBSSN.
DraftKings has Liberty −14, total 44.5. Big Al picks winners, not bets.
Liberty leads 3–1. Last meeting: Florida International won 34–27 in 2025.
Florida International's is J.J. Kohl (1,602 passing yards this season); Liberty's is Deshawn Purdie (1,226 passing yards this season).
Numbers through the games of Oct 24, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Florida International and Liberty: team pages with every stat and national rank. Compare any two teams.