College football, 2026 season
Data-driven picks for every FBS game + interactive charts you can customize to support any narrative (except Big 12 supremacy).
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Everything on this site starts with someone else's data, and we credit all of it. The projections, picks, rankings and tiers are our own math on top.
| Source | What we use | How often |
|---|---|---|
| CollegeFootballData.com, via the public cfbfastR files | Schedules, final scores, pregame Elo, play-by-play and box score stats, rosters | Usually posted Sunday or Monday morning after games |
| DraftKings lines (via The Odds API and CollegeFootballData.com) | The line and total on each game, and where each opened | Every morning, and before kickoffs Thursday to Saturday |
| Team logos and colors (ESPN's, via CollegeFootballData.com) | The logos on charts, game cards and team pages. They belong to the schools and are used only to identify the teams. | Preseason |
| SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update) | Overall, offense, defense and special teams ratings | Weekly |
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| AP Top 25 (via NCAA.com) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sunday afternoons |
| AFCA Coaches Poll (via Yahoo Sports, CBS Sports, SI) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sundays |
| 247Sports | Team talent composite, star counts, 2026 transfer portal rankings | Preseason |
| The NIL Standard | Estimated NIL roster values | Preseason |
| us-atlas (U.S. Census Bureau boundaries) | State shapes for the map | Once |
Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of the 138 FBS teams.
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About
Last updated October 26, 2026.
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Last updated October 26, 2026.
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Projected scores come from SP+ offense, defense and special teams, plus 2.5 points for the home team. Cards also show DraftKings' line and total as facts: we pick winners, not bets. Open Details for the full read, or Head to head for every stat.
Final scores against what we said before kickoff. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favored, unless he made the call himself on a toss-up or one of the week's biggest games. Ranked means in that week's AP poll. Open a game for the full preview as it stood going into the week.
Straight-up picks: did the pick win? Big Al's pick is the team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favor. Big Al and SP+ picks start in Week 8; Elo picks go back to Week 1.
Each column is that week's ranking. Arrows compare the latest poll to the week before. NR means not ranked.
Rankings come from cfbtrack.com. Week 1 is the preseason poll; each later week is the poll released before that week's games.
SP+ vs. payroll is the average, across a conference's teams with an NIL valuation (positive means its teams play better than their payrolls predict). Blue-chip ratio is the share of all its rostered players who were 4- or 5-star recruits.
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The columns on the right show where each team would be seeded under the other ratings. A dash means out.
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Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor. On the toss-ups and the biggest games, Big Al makes the call himself and says why.
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Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
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Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
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Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Week 9, Tue, Oct 27, 8:00 PM ET, Plaster Sports Complex.
Big Al's pick: Missouri State, 61% to win.
| Kickoff | Tue, Oct 27, 8:00 PM ET |
|---|---|
| TV | ESPN2 |
| Where | Plaster Sports Complex |
| Weather | 65°, clear, wind 5 mph |
| Line | Missouri State −6, total 51.5 |
| Line movement | Hasn't moved since it opened. |
| Series | Tied 1–1 |
| Last meeting | Sam Houston 20–17 in 2006 |
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Missouri State by 3.6 | 60% | 47 |
| PRIME | Missouri State by 4.4 | 62% | |
| Elo | Missouri State | 69% | |
| The line | Missouri State −6 | 51.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Tue, Oct 27, 2:00 PM ET.
Big Al's pick: Missouri State. 64% to win
All three ratings favor Missouri State, by 3.6 to 4.4 points. Sam Houston's way back in is its 3rd down defense, 27th in 3rd downs allowed, against Missouri State's 3rd down offense at 105th.
| SP+ offense | SP+ defense | |
|---|---|---|
| Sam Houston | 13.9 (132nd) | 31.6 (109th) |
| Missouri State | 19.0 (114th) | 35.4 (128th) |
| SUPLEX | SUPLEX allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Sam Houston | 50.0% (106th) | 56.6% (88th) |
| Missouri State | 56.6% (67th) | 61.6% (117th) |
| Success rate | Explosive play rate | |
|---|---|---|
| Sam Houston | 37.0% (124th) | 9.1% (127th) |
| Missouri State | 42.0% (84th) | 11.8% (82nd) |
| Success rate allowed | Explosive plays allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Sam Houston | 41.1% (64th) | 12.4% (95th) |
| Missouri State | 50.2% (135th) | 13.0% (104th) |
| Yards per carry | Yards per attempt | |
|---|---|---|
| Sam Houston | 4.25 (121st) | 6.72 (108th) |
| Missouri State | 4.82 (93rd) | 7.80 (63rd) |
| 3rd down conversion | 3rd downs allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Sam Houston | 33.3% (112th) | 32.6% (27th) |
| Missouri State | 34.8% (105th) | 46.8% (124th) |
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Sam Houston and Missouri State are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 24, 2026.
| Player | Passing success rate (per dropback) | Passing yards |
|---|---|---|
| Landyn Locke, Sam Houston | 37.8% (137th) | 1,703 (26th) |
| Marcel Reed, Missouri State | 39.1% (129th) | 1,404 (72nd) |
| Player | Yards per carry | Rushing success rate |
|---|---|---|
| Alton McCaskill, Sam Houston | 4.0 (293rd) | 42.6% (190th) |
| Ramone Green Jr., Missouri State | 4.3 (261st) | 44.6% (154th) |
| Player | Explosive catches (16+ yards) | Receiving yards |
|---|---|---|
| Tim Burns Jr., Sam Houston | 5 (301st) | 329 (157th) |
| Chris Reed, Sam Houston | 6 (236th) | 293 (195th) |
| Isaiah Myers, Missouri State | 17 (13th) | 781 (6th) |
| Jmariyae Robinson, Missouri State | 6 (225th) | 318 (172nd) |
| Player | Sacks | INTs | Fumble recoveries | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Railyn Adams, Sam Houston | 0 | 2 | 1 | 208th |
| Martavis Blackmon, Missouri State | 1 | 0 | 2 | 180th |
| Elijah Groves, Sam Houston | 2 | 0 | 0 | 494th |
| Jashawn Cooper, Missouri State | 1 | 1 | 0 | 427th |
| Joel Boamah, Missouri State | 0 | 1 | 1 | 428th |
| Brian Bates Jr., Sam Houston | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1288th |
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 24, 2026.
On a neutral field, SP+ has Missouri State 1.1 points better (128th to 129th). PRIME also has Missouri State ahead, by 1.9. Elo, which only sees results, also has Missouri State ahead (123rd to 130th).
| Sam Houston | Missouri State | |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ overall | -18.0 (129th) | -16.9 (128th) |
| SP+ offense | 13.9 (132nd) | 19.0 (114th) |
| SP+ defense | 31.6 (109th) | 35.4 (128th) |
| SP+ special teams | -0.4 (113th) | -0.6 (131st) |
| PRIME net | -15.0 (128th) | -13.1 (121st) |
| PRIME offense | -12.11 (136th) | -3.88 (95th) |
| PRIME defense | -2.30 (89th) | -8.55 (130th) |
| PRIME SOS | -6.9 (110th) | -7.3 (117th) |
| PRIME SOR | -4.3 (137th) | -2.4 (122nd) |
| Elo | 1104 (130th) | 1187 (123rd) |
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Sam Houston's offense ranks 134th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Missouri State defense it faces ranks 137th in EPA per play allowed. Missouri State's offense ranks 113th against Sam Houston's 97th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge. The biggest edge on the board is Missouri State's backs in the open field: 97th in adjusted open-field yards per carry, against Sam Houston's 130th-ranked defense. Adjust for opponents and Sam Houston's defense falls from 63rd to 97th in EPA per play allowed: a lot of that came against soft offenses.
| Sam Houston | Missouri State | |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play (adjusted) | −0.03 (134th) | +0.04 (113th) |
| EPA per pass (adjusted) | +0.07 (133rd) | +0.19 (70th) |
| EPA per rush (adjusted) | −0.04 (133rd) | −0.02 (126th) |
| Success rate (adjusted) | 36.7% (126th) | 40.4% (82nd) |
| Success rate, standard downs (adjusted) | 42.7% (127th) | 46.3% (77th) |
| Success rate, passing downs (adjusted) | 28.8% (108th) | 29.2% (99th) |
| Explosiveness (adjusted) | 0.93 (80th) | 0.89 (131st) |
| Line yards per carry (adjusted) | 2.62 (134th) | 2.85 (105th) |
| Open-field yards per carry (adjusted) | 0.97 (119th) | 1.04 (97th) |
| EPA per play allowed (adjusted) | +0.14 (97th) | +0.25 (137th) |
| EPA per pass allowed (adjusted) | +0.15 (41st) | +0.31 (129th) |
| EPA per rush allowed (adjusted) | +0.14 (124th) | +0.14 (119th) |
| Success rate allowed (adjusted) | 42.6% (81st) | 50.3% (137th) |
| Explosiveness allowed (adjusted) | 0.97 (119th) | 0.92 (29th) |
| Line yards allowed per carry (adjusted) | 3.10 (113th) | 3.17 (124th) |
| Open-field yards allowed per carry (adjusted) | 1.41 (130th) | 1.23 (94th) |
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Sam Houston is better throwing (118th in EPA per pass) than running (136th). Missouri State's pass defense ranks 110th. Missouri State is better throwing (58th in EPA per pass) than running (115th). Sam Houston's pass defense ranks 13th, so the defense has the better of it.
| Sam Houston | Missouri State | |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | −0.05 (133rd) | +0.09 (88th) |
| EPA per pass | +0.05 (118th) | +0.25 (58th) |
| EPA per rush | −0.18 (136th) | 0.00 (115th) |
| EPA per 3rd-down play | +0.32 (102nd) | +0.48 (62nd) |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.08 (63rd) | +0.23 (120th) |
| EPA per pass allowed | 0.00 (13th) | +0.32 (110th) |
| EPA per rush allowed | +0.18 (121st) | +0.13 (100th) |
| EPA per 3rd-down play allowed | +0.18 (15th) | +0.59 (119th) |
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Sam Houston is outscored by 5.2 a game, and Missouri State is outscored by 10.5. Sam Houston's offense ranks 120th in scoring, and the Missouri State defense it faces ranks 130th in points allowed. Missouri State's offense ranks 96th against Sam Houston's 79th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge.
| Sam Houston | Missouri State | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored | 20.1 (120th) | 24.4 (96th) |
| Points allowed | 25.3 (79th) | 34.9 (130th) |
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Sam Houston has no clear edge here. Its best is 3rd down conversion rate, 112th, against a defense ranked 124th in 3rd down conversions allowed. Missouri State has no clear edge here. Its best is yards per carry, 93rd, against a defense ranked 117th in yards per carry allowed.
| Sam Houston | Missouri State | |
|---|---|---|
| Pass yards / game | 252.4 (45th) | 246.3 (51st) |
| Rush yards / game | 105.0 (132nd) | 137.1 (105th) |
| Yards per play | 5.55 (111th) | 6.20 (64th) |
| Yards per carry | 4.25 (121st) | 4.82 (93rd) |
| Yards per attempt | 6.72 (108th) | 7.80 (63rd) |
| Completion % | 57.0% (100th) | 65.6% (53rd) |
| Success rate | 37.0% (124th) | 42.0% (84th) |
| Explosive play rate | 9.1% (127th) | 11.8% (82nd) |
| 3rd down conversion | 33.3% (112th) | 34.8% (105th) |
| Sack rate (taken) | 5.4% (70th) | 5.6% (72nd) |
| INT rate (thrown) | 2.3% (65th) | 2.7% (87th) |
| SUPLEX | 50.0% (106th) | 56.6% (67th) |
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Sam Houston's defense is best placed to get off the field on third down: it ranks 27th in 3rd down conversions allowed, and Missouri State's offense is bottom-40 in 3rd down conversion rate (105th). That's a mismatch. Missouri State's defense is best placed to stop the run: it ranks 91st in yards per carry allowed, and Sam Houston's offense is bottom-20 in yards per carry (121st).
| Sam Houston | Missouri State | |
|---|---|---|
| Pass yards allowed / game | 141.3 (4th) | 228.9 (101st) |
| Rush yards allowed / game | 210.3 (129th) | 175.3 (102nd) |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.64 (62nd) | 6.34 (101st) |
| Yards per carry allowed | 5.71 (117th) | 5.16 (91st) |
| Yards per attempt allowed | 5.96 (22nd) | 8.05 (93rd) |
| Success rate allowed | 41.1% (64th) | 50.2% (135th) |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.4% (95th) | 13.0% (104th) |
| 3rd downs allowed | 32.6% (27th) | 46.8% (124th) |
| Sack rate (generated) | 6.7% (55th) | 4.3% (111th) |
| INT rate (generated) | 3.6% (28th) | 1.5% (107th) |
| SUPLEX allowed | 56.6% (88th) | 61.6% (117th) |
What opponents managed against them.
Neither team has a real turnover edge: Sam Houston is 0.0 a game and Missouri State −0.3.
| Sam Houston | Missouri State | |
|---|---|---|
| Interceptions thrown / game | 0.75 (75th) | 0.75 (75th) |
| Fumbles lost / game | 0.38 (42nd) | 0.50 (69th) |
| Giveaways / game | 1.13 (51st) | 1.25 (64th) |
| Interceptions / game | 0.75 (59th) | 0.38 (113th) |
| Fumbles recovered / game | 0.38 (89th) | 0.63 (40th) |
| Takeaways / game | 1.13 (81st) | 1.00 (88th) |
| Turnover margin / game | 0.0 (66th) | -0.3 (85th) |
Per game, from play-by-play.
Sam Houston has the more talented roster (117th in the 247Sports talent composite; Missouri State is 119th). But Missouri State plays further above its talent: −9.8 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Sam Houston's −11.2.
| Sam Houston | Missouri State | |
|---|---|---|
| Talent composite | 554.5 (117th) | 549.9 (119th) |
| Blue-chip ratio | 1.7% (120th) | 5.5% (96th) |
| Players on roster | 106 (99th) | 104 (112th) |
| Rated by 247Sports | 58 (123rd) | 55 (129th) |
| 5-star players | 0 (37th) | 0 (37th) |
| 4-star players | 1 (119th) | 3 (94th) |
| 3-star players | 55 (93rd) | 47 (110th) |
| Below 3-star | 2 (68th) | 5 (29th) |
| 2026 transfers in | 22 (63rd) | 21 (67th) |
| Transfer share | 37.9% (37th) | 38.2% (36th) |
| SP+ vs. talent | -11.2 (125th) | -9.8 (124th) |
| Returning production | 57.7% (46th) | 31.3% (87th) |
| Returning passing production | -31.1% (132nd) | 5.3% (94th) |
| Returning rushing production | -3.2% (120th) | -3.2% (120th) |
| Returning receiving production | 56.8% (35th) | 47.4% (52nd) |
| 2026 recruiting class (national rank) | 126 (126th) | 131 (131st) |
| Recruiting rank, last four classes | 117.0 (122nd) | 133.5 (131st) |
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Sam Houston is −2.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (−1.6). Missouri State is −1.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (−1.4). Sam Houston's record is 1.2 wins worse than its play on bad luck, so it's better than the record says.
| Sam Houston | Missouri State | |
|---|---|---|
| BAWA (total) | -2.5 (129th) | -1.5 (115th) |
| Schedule BAWA | +0.9 (46th) | +1.1 (40th) |
| Roster BAWA | -0.6 (109th) | -0.7 (114th) |
| Coach BAWA | -1.6 (126th) | -1.4 (121st) |
| Luck BAWA | -1.2 (129th) | -0.5 (96th) |
Big Al Wins Added: where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Big Al picks Missouri State, 64% to win. All three ratings favor the same team.
Tue, Oct 27, 8:00 PM ET at Plaster Sports Complex, on ESPN2.
DraftKings has Missouri State −6, total 51.5. Big Al picks winners, not bets.
It's tied 1–1. Last meeting: Sam Houston won 20–17 in 2006.
Sam Houston's is Landyn Locke (1,703 passing yards this season); Missouri State's is Marcel Reed (1,404 passing yards this season).
Numbers through the games of Oct 24, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Sam Houston and Missouri State: team pages with every stat and national rank. Compare any two teams.