College football, 2026 season
Data-driven picks for every FBS game + interactive charts you can customize to support any narrative (except Big 12 supremacy).
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Everything on this site starts with someone else's data, and we credit all of it. The projections, picks, rankings and tiers are our own math on top.
| Source | What we use | How often |
|---|---|---|
| CollegeFootballData.com, via the public cfbfastR files | Schedules, final scores, pregame Elo, play-by-play and box score stats, rosters | Usually posted Sunday or Monday morning after games |
| DraftKings lines (via The Odds API and CollegeFootballData.com) | The line and total on each game, and where each opened | Every morning, and before kickoffs Thursday to Saturday |
| Team logos and colors (ESPN's, via CollegeFootballData.com) | The logos on charts, game cards and team pages. They belong to the schools and are used only to identify the teams. | Preseason |
| SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update) | Overall, offense, defense and special teams ratings | Weekly |
| PRIME (primecfb.com) | Net, offense, defense and special teams ratings, strength of schedule, strength of record | Weekly |
| AP Top 25 (via NCAA.com) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sunday afternoons |
| AFCA Coaches Poll (via Yahoo Sports, CBS Sports, SI) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sundays |
| 247Sports | Team talent composite, star counts, 2026 transfer portal rankings | Preseason |
| The NIL Standard | Estimated NIL roster values | Preseason |
| us-atlas (U.S. Census Bureau boundaries) | State shapes for the map | Once |
Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of the 138 FBS teams.
About
Every stat and term on the site, explained like you're five. Or like you're a grown adult who never asked what EPA means and is now too embarrassed to.
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What the numbers on team pages, charts and head to head mean.
How Big Al's picks, tiers and projections work. The full method is on Sources and methods.
Who's who and how the 12-team field works.
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For where the numbers come from and the exact math, see Sources and methods. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
About
Last updated October 26, 2026.
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Big Al's CFB Lab publishes college football statistics, projections and opinions. Everything here is for information and entertainment. Projections and picks are estimates from public data and can be wrong, sometimes badly.
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Last updated October 26, 2026.
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Projected scores come from SP+ offense, defense and special teams, plus 2.5 points for the home team. Cards also show DraftKings' line and total as facts: we pick winners, not bets. Open Details for the full read, or Head to head for every stat.
Final scores against what we said before kickoff. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favored, unless he made the call himself on a toss-up or one of the week's biggest games. Ranked means in that week's AP poll. Open a game for the full preview as it stood going into the week.
Straight-up picks: did the pick win? Big Al's pick is the team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favor. Big Al and SP+ picks start in Week 8; Elo picks go back to Week 1.
Each column is that week's ranking. Arrows compare the latest poll to the week before. NR means not ranked.
Rankings come from cfbtrack.com. Week 1 is the preseason poll; each later week is the poll released before that week's games.
SP+ vs. payroll is the average, across a conference's teams with an NIL valuation (positive means its teams play better than their payrolls predict). Blue-chip ratio is the share of all its rostered players who were 4- or 5-star recruits.
Ranks are national, out of 138 FBS teams. A top-10 team also counts toward the top 25 and top 40, and everyone outside the last cutoff counts as weak. Open a conference to see its teams.
Seeds 1–4 get first-round byes. Seeds 5–8 host the first round.
The columns on the right show where each team would be seeded under the other ratings. A dash means out.
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor. On the toss-ups and the biggest games, Big Al makes the call himself and says why.
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
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Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Week 9, Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM ET, Maverik Stadium.
Big Al's pick: Utah State, 72% to win.
| Kickoff | Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM ET |
|---|---|
| TV | USA Net |
| Where | Maverik Stadium |
| Weather | 53°, wind 3 mph |
| Line | Utah State −6.5, total 63.5 |
| Line movement | Opened Utah State −3.5; moved 3 points toward Utah State. Total opened 64.5, down 1. |
| Series | Colorado State leads 40–38–2 |
| Last meeting | Colorado State 42–37 in 2024 |
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Utah State by 1.7 | 55% | 56 |
| PRIME | Utah State by 9.9 | 76% | |
| Elo | Utah State | 81% | |
| The line | Utah State −6.5, opened −3.5 | 63.5, opened 64.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Wed, Oct 28, 2:21 PM ET.
Big Al's pick: Utah State. 71% to win
All three ratings favor Utah State, by 1.7 to 9.9 points. Utah State's best matchup is its big-play defense, 3rd in explosive plays allowed, against Colorado State's big-play offense at 79th. Colorado State's way back in is its takeaway defense, 5th in interceptions per pass, against Utah State's ball security at 133rd.
| SP+ offense | SP+ defense | |
|---|---|---|
| Colorado State | 28.6 (55th) | 37.0 (131st) |
| Utah State | 17.2 (124th) | 25.9 (67th) |
| SUPLEX | SUPLEX allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Colorado State | 58.4% (48th) | 80.7% (138th) |
| Utah State | 48.8% (119th) | 44.1% (17th) |
| Success rate | Explosive play rate | |
|---|---|---|
| Colorado State | 46.0% (42nd) | 11.9% (79th) |
| Utah State | 36.6% (127th) | 10.6% (106th) |
| Success rate allowed | Explosive plays allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Colorado State | 58.2% (138th) | 19.7% (138th) |
| Utah State | 38.3% (46th) | 6.7% (3rd) |
| Yards per carry | Yards per attempt | |
|---|---|---|
| Colorado State | 6.27 (9th) | 7.47 (78th) |
| Utah State | 4.64 (109th) | 6.78 (101st) |
| 3rd down conversion | 3rd downs allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Colorado State | 48.0% (18th) | 55.1% (136th) |
| Utah State | 35.8% (98th) | 42.3% (97th) |
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Colorado State and Utah State are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 24, 2026.
| Player | Passing success rate (per dropback) | Passing yards |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Garcia, Utah State | — (—) | 6 (202nd) |
| Player | Yards per carry | Rushing success rate |
|---|---|---|
| Jayden Brown, Colorado State | 8.7 (5th) | 44.2% (162nd) |
| Javen Jacobs, Utah State | 5.4 (115th) | 38.8% (256th) |
| Player | Explosive catches (16+ yards) | Receiving yards |
|---|---|---|
| Tommy Maher, Colorado State | 4 (334th) | 279 (219th) |
| Javonte Vereen, Colorado State | 2 (521st) | 127 (521st) |
| Demick Starling, Utah State | 2 (573rd) | 139 (491st) |
| Player | Sacks | INTs | Fumble recoveries | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Blocker, Colorado State | 0 | 3 | 0 | 133rd |
| Bronson Olevao, Utah State | 1 | 0 | 2 | 243rd |
| Brevin Hamblin, Utah State | 1 | 1 | 0 | 566th |
| D'Angelo Hagans Jr., Colorado State | 0 | 1 | 0 | 749th |
| Elijah Brown, Colorado State | 1 | 0 | 0 | 750th |
| Carson Tujague, Utah State | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1490th |
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 24, 2026.
On a neutral field, SP+ has Colorado State 0.8 points better (103rd to 105th). PRIME has Utah State by 7.4 instead. The two ratings split on Utah State's defense: 67th in SP+, 27th in PRIME. Elo, which only sees results, has Utah State ahead (96th to 125th).
| Colorado State | Utah State | |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ overall | -8.4 (103rd) | -9.2 (105th) |
| SP+ offense | 28.6 (55th) | 17.2 (124th) |
| SP+ defense | 37.0 (131st) | 25.9 (67th) |
| SP+ special teams | 0.0 (68th) | -0.5 (124th) |
| PRIME net | -10.3 (110th) | -2.9 (83rd) |
| PRIME offense | 6.42 (29th) | -7.78 (121st) |
| PRIME defense | -16.14 (137th) | 4.96 (27th) |
| PRIME SOS | -2.2 (66th) | -0.2 (46th) |
| PRIME SOR | -0.9 (99th) | -1.5 (110th) |
| Elo | 1171 (125th) | 1364 (96th) |
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Colorado State's offense ranks 39th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Utah State defense it faces ranks 23rd in EPA per play allowed. Utah State's offense ranks 118th against Colorado State's 134th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge. The biggest edge on the board is Utah State's backs in the open field: 42nd in adjusted open-field yards per carry, against Colorado State's 136th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch. Adjust for opponents and Colorado State's offense falls from 11th to 39th in EPA per play: a lot of that came against soft defenses.
| Colorado State | Utah State | |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play (adjusted) | +0.15 (39th) | +0.02 (118th) |
| EPA per pass (adjusted) | +0.21 (57th) | +0.10 (124th) |
| EPA per rush (adjusted) | +0.13 (20th) | +0.01 (122nd) |
| Success rate (adjusted) | 43.7% (42nd) | 35.7% (131st) |
| Success rate, standard downs (adjusted) | 47.1% (59th) | 41.5% (135th) |
| Success rate, passing downs (adjusted) | 33.3% (19th) | 29.1% (100th) |
| Explosiveness (adjusted) | 0.96 (27th) | 0.95 (34th) |
| Line yards per carry (adjusted) | 2.97 (64th) | 2.89 (93rd) |
| Open-field yards per carry (adjusted) | 1.19 (51st) | 1.21 (42nd) |
| EPA per play allowed (adjusted) | +0.25 (134th) | +0.04 (23rd) |
| EPA per pass allowed (adjusted) | +0.32 (134th) | +0.13 (31st) |
| EPA per rush allowed (adjusted) | +0.20 (137th) | +0.01 (24th) |
| Success rate allowed (adjusted) | 51.7% (138th) | 39.8% (41st) |
| Explosiveness allowed (adjusted) | 0.97 (123rd) | 0.95 (98th) |
| Line yards allowed per carry (adjusted) | 3.30 (136th) | 2.80 (26th) |
| Open-field yards allowed per carry (adjusted) | 1.57 (136th) | 1.12 (69th) |
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Colorado State is better running (4th in EPA per rush) than throwing (24th). Utah State's run defense ranks 51st, so that's an edge. Utah State is about as good throwing (130th in EPA per pass) as running (122nd). On third down, Colorado State has the edge: its offense ranks 8th in EPA per third-down play, and the defense it faces ranks 81st.
| Colorado State | Utah State | |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.30 (11th) | −0.04 (128th) |
| EPA per pass | +0.39 (24th) | −0.04 (130th) |
| EPA per rush | +0.27 (4th) | −0.03 (122nd) |
| EPA per 3rd-down play | +0.79 (8th) | +0.44 (76th) |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.35 (138th) | +0.04 (42nd) |
| EPA per pass allowed | +0.50 (136th) | +0.08 (37th) |
| EPA per rush allowed | +0.37 (138th) | +0.01 (51st) |
| EPA per 3rd-down play allowed | +0.81 (135th) | +0.42 (81st) |
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Colorado State is outscored by 5.4 a game, and Utah State is outscored by 8.1. Colorado State's offense ranks 12th in scoring, and the Utah State defense it faces ranks 58th in points allowed. Utah State's offense ranks 137th against Colorado State's 138th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Colorado State's offense against Utah State's defense.
| Colorado State | Utah State | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored | 38.6 (12th) | 14.9 (137th) |
| Points allowed | 44.0 (138th) | 23.0 (58th) |
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Colorado State's best matchup is third downs: its offense ranks 18th in 3rd down conversion rate, and Utah State's defense ranks 97th in 3rd down conversions allowed. That's a mismatch. Utah State's best matchup is third downs: its offense ranks 98th in 3rd down conversion rate, and Colorado State's defense ranks 136th in 3rd down conversions allowed.
| Colorado State | Utah State | |
|---|---|---|
| Pass yards / game | 295.6 (12th) | 195.7 (103rd) |
| Rush yards / game | 177.4 (56th) | 131.9 (110th) |
| Yards per play | 6.93 (20th) | 5.53 (116th) |
| Yards per carry | 6.27 (9th) | 4.64 (109th) |
| Yards per attempt | 7.47 (78th) | 6.78 (101st) |
| Completion % | 61.4% (80th) | 58.4% (92nd) |
| Success rate | 46.0% (42nd) | 36.6% (127th) |
| Explosive play rate | 11.9% (79th) | 10.6% (106th) |
| 3rd down conversion | 48.0% (18th) | 35.8% (98th) |
| Sack rate (taken) | 1.1% (3rd) | 6.5% (91st) |
| INT rate (thrown) | 1.8% (46th) | 5.0% (133rd) |
| SUPLEX | 58.4% (48th) | 48.8% (119th) |
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Colorado State's defense is best placed to pick off passes: it ranks 5th in interception rate, and Utah State's offense is bottom-20 at avoiding interceptions (133rd). That's a mismatch. Utah State's defense is best placed to limit big plays: it ranks 3rd in explosive plays allowed, and Colorado State's offense is middle of the pack in explosive play rate (79th). That's a mismatch.
| Colorado State | Utah State | |
|---|---|---|
| Pass yards allowed / game | 274.9 (131st) | 215.4 (76th) |
| Rush yards allowed / game | 273.4 (138th) | 143.3 (61st) |
| Yards per play allowed | 8.90 (138th) | 4.93 (14th) |
| Yards per carry allowed | 7.31 (138th) | 4.60 (53rd) |
| Yards per attempt allowed | 11.88 (138th) | 5.50 (11th) |
| Success rate allowed | 58.2% (138th) | 38.3% (46th) |
| Explosive plays allowed | 19.7% (138th) | 6.7% (3rd) |
| 3rd downs allowed | 55.1% (136th) | 42.3% (97th) |
| Sack rate (generated) | 4.1% (117th) | 5.8% (76th) |
| INT rate (generated) | 5.6% (5th) | 1.1% (122nd) |
| SUPLEX allowed | 80.7% (138th) | 44.1% (17th) |
What opponents managed against them.
Colorado State is +1.1 in turnover margin a game and Utah State is −0.7. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 9-point edge for Colorado State. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.
| Colorado State | Utah State | |
|---|---|---|
| Interceptions thrown / game | 0.71 (59th) | 1.43 (131st) |
| Fumbles lost / game | 0.14 (3rd) | 0.29 (20th) |
| Giveaways / game | 0.86 (26th) | 1.71 (117th) |
| Interceptions / game | 1.29 (10th) | 0.43 (105th) |
| Fumbles recovered / game | 0.71 (22nd) | 0.57 (49th) |
| Takeaways / game | 2.00 (6th) | 1.00 (88th) |
| Turnover margin / game | +1.1 (7th) | -0.7 (116th) |
Per game, from play-by-play.
Colorado State has the more talented roster (75th in the 247Sports talent composite; Utah State is 123rd). But Utah State plays further above its talent: −1.8 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Colorado State's −7.0.
| Colorado State | Utah State | |
|---|---|---|
| Talent composite | 640.3 (75th) | 544.0 (123rd) |
| Blue-chip ratio | 10.8% (65th) | 5.6% (95th) |
| Players on roster | 82 (138th) | 89 (137th) |
| Rated by 247Sports | 74 (84th) | 54 (131st) |
| 5-star players | 0 (37th) | 0 (37th) |
| 4-star players | 8 (62nd) | 3 (94th) |
| 3-star players | 66 (52nd) | 47 (110th) |
| Below 3-star | 0 (113th) | 4 (38th) |
| 2026 transfers in | 36 (19th) | 32 (24th) |
| Transfer share | 48.6% (20th) | 59.3% (11th) |
| SP+ vs. talent | -7.0 (111th) | -1.8 (77th) |
| Returning production | 39.6% (68th) | 65.2% (32nd) |
| Returning passing production | 23.0% (69th) | 86.6% (49th) |
| Returning rushing production | -28.0% (129th) | 74.4% (46th) |
| Returning receiving production | 58.4% (29th) | 48.6% (50th) |
| 2026 recruiting class (national rank) | 73 (73rd) | 97 (97th) |
| Recruiting rank, last four classes | 79.5 (76th) | 101.2 (104th) |
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Colorado State is −0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (−1.1). Utah State is −1.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is luck (−0.6).
| Colorado State | Utah State | |
|---|---|---|
| BAWA (total) | -0.5 (89th) | -1.5 (115th) |
| Schedule BAWA | +0.4 (73rd) | +0.1 (84th) |
| Roster BAWA | -0.1 (78th) | -0.6 (106th) |
| Coach BAWA | -1.1 (113th) | -0.4 (86th) |
| Luck BAWA | +0.3 (47th) | -0.6 (106th) |
Big Al Wins Added: where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Big Al picks Utah State, 71% to win. All three ratings favor the same team. Utah State's best matchup is its big-play defense, 3rd in explosive plays allowed, against Colorado State's big-play offense at 79th.
Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM ET at Maverik Stadium, on USA Net.
DraftKings has Utah State −6.5, total 63.5. Big Al picks winners, not bets.
Colorado State leads 40–38–2. Last meeting: Colorado State won 42–37 in 2024.
Colorado State: Reginald Vick Jr (WR) hasn't played since Week 5.
Numbers through the games of Oct 24, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Colorado State and Utah State: team pages with every stat and national rank. Compare any two teams.