College football, 2026 season
Data-driven picks for every FBS game + interactive charts you can customize to support any narrative (except Big 12 supremacy).
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Everything on this site starts with someone else's data, and we credit all of it. The projections, picks, rankings and tiers are our own math on top.
| Source | What we use | How often |
|---|---|---|
| CollegeFootballData.com, via the public cfbfastR files | Schedules, final scores, pregame Elo, play-by-play and box score stats, rosters | Usually posted Sunday or Monday morning after games |
| DraftKings lines (via The Odds API and CollegeFootballData.com) | The line and total on each game, and where each opened | Every morning, and before kickoffs Thursday to Saturday |
| Team logos and colors (ESPN's, via CollegeFootballData.com) | The logos on charts, game cards and team pages. They belong to the schools and are used only to identify the teams. | Preseason |
| SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update) | Overall, offense, defense and special teams ratings | Weekly |
| PRIME (primecfb.com) | Net, offense, defense and special teams ratings, strength of schedule, strength of record | Weekly |
| AP Top 25 (via NCAA.com) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sunday afternoons |
| AFCA Coaches Poll (via Yahoo Sports, CBS Sports, SI) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sundays |
| 247Sports | Team talent composite, star counts, 2026 transfer portal rankings | Preseason |
| The NIL Standard | Estimated NIL roster values | Preseason |
| us-atlas (U.S. Census Bureau boundaries) | State shapes for the map | Once |
Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of the 138 FBS teams.
About
Every stat and term on the site, explained like you're five. Or like you're a grown adult who never asked what EPA means and is now too embarrassed to.
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For where the numbers come from and the exact math, see Sources and methods. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
About
Last updated October 26, 2026.
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Big Al's CFB Lab publishes college football statistics, projections and opinions. Everything here is for information and entertainment. Projections and picks are estimates from public data and can be wrong, sometimes badly.
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Last updated October 26, 2026.
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The first issue is coming soon.
Projected scores come from SP+ offense, defense and special teams, plus 2.5 points for the home team. Cards also show DraftKings' line and total as facts: we pick winners, not bets. Open Details for the full read, or Head to head for every stat.
"Off by" is how far the final margin landed from the projected margin.
Straight-up picks: did the pick win? Big Al's pick is the team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favor. Big Al and SP+ picks start in Week 8; Elo picks go back to Week 1.
Each column is that week's ranking. Arrows compare the latest poll to the week before. NR means not ranked.
Rankings come from cfbtrack.com. Week 1 is the preseason poll; each later week is the poll released before that week's games.
SP+ vs. payroll is the average, across a conference's teams with an NIL valuation (positive means its teams play better than their payrolls predict). Blue-chip ratio is the share of all its rostered players who were 4- or 5-star recruits.
Ranks are national, out of 138 FBS teams. A top-10 team also counts toward the top 25 and top 40, and everyone outside the last cutoff counts as weak. Open a conference to see its teams.
Seeds 1–4 get first-round byes. Seeds 5–8 host the first round.
The columns on the right show where each team would be seeded under the other ratings. A dash means out.
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
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Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Week 9, Sat, Oct 31, 10:00 PM ET, Albertsons Stadium.
Big Al's pick: Boise State, 77% to win.
| Kickoff | Sat, Oct 31, 10:00 PM ET |
|---|---|
| TV | The CW Network |
| Where | Albertsons Stadium |
| Weather | 49°, light rain, wind 7 mph |
| Line | Boise State −11.5, total 63.5 |
| Line movement | Opened Boise State −12.5; moved 1 point toward Texas State. Total opened 65.5, down 2. |
| Series | First meeting |
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Boise State by 11.9 | 80% | 71 |
| PRIME | Boise State by 11.8 | 80% | |
| Elo | Boise State | 77% | |
| The line | Boise State −11.5, opened −12.5 | 63.5, opened 65.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Wed, Oct 28, 2:21 PM ET.
Big Al's pick: Boise State. 79% to win
All three ratings favor Boise State, by 11.8 to 11.9 points. Boise State's best matchup is its pass protection, 25th in sacks allowed per dropback, against Texas State's pass rush at 136th. Texas State's way back in is its offense, 19th in yards per play, against Boise State's defense at 134th.
| SP+ offense | SP+ defense | |
|---|---|---|
| Texas State | 33.5 (24th) | 31.6 (109th) |
| Boise State | 34.2 (18th) | 23.6 (51st) |
| SUPLEX | SUPLEX allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Texas State | 62.7% (23rd) | 56.5% (86th) |
| Boise State | 54.6% (82nd) | 59.5% (106th) |
| Success rate | Explosive play rate | |
|---|---|---|
| Texas State | 50.0% (16th) | 13.9% (36th) |
| Boise State | 44.0% (67th) | 10.8% (102nd) |
| Success rate allowed | Explosive plays allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Texas State | 42.9% (80th) | 10.9% (64th) |
| Boise State | 42.3% (72nd) | 14.1% (118th) |
| Yards per carry | Yards per attempt | |
|---|---|---|
| Texas State | 6.22 (11th) | 8.72 (29th) |
| Boise State | 6.01 (19th) | 6.30 (114th) |
| 3rd down conversion | 3rd downs allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Texas State | 55.6% (3rd) | 37.1% (56th) |
| Boise State | 45.1% (38th) | 33.3% (29th) |
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Texas State and Boise State are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 24, 2026.
| Player | Passing success rate (per dropback) | Passing yards |
|---|---|---|
| Maddux Madsen, Boise State | 46.7% (44th) | 1,455 (68th) |
| Player | Yards per carry | Rushing success rate |
|---|---|---|
| Torrance Burgess Jr., Texas State | 7.5 (12th) | 46.2% (126th) |
| Dylan Riley, Boise State | 6.9 (32nd) | 46.0% (129th) |
| Player | Explosive catches (16+ yards) | Receiving yards |
|---|---|---|
| Beau Sparks, Texas State | 7 (178th) | 341 (148th) |
| Kylen Evans, Texas State | 7 (179th) | 199 (362nd) |
| Rasean Jones, Boise State | 9 (94th) | 428 (81st) |
| Jamari Johnson, Boise State | 7 (147th) | 290 (197th) |
| Player | Sacks | INTs | Fumble recoveries | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Anderson, Boise State | 0 | 3 | 0 | 118th |
| Trez Moore, Texas State | 0 | 1 | 1 | 525th |
| Boen Phelps, Boise State | 1 | 1 | 0 | 284th |
| Bol Bol, Boise State | 2 | 0 | 0 | 285th |
| Greg Gipson Jr., Texas State | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1384th |
| Jayden Bradley, Texas State | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1385th |
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 24, 2026.
On a neutral field, SP+ has Boise State 9.4 points better (29th to 65th). PRIME also has Boise State ahead, by 9.3. Elo, which only sees results, also has Boise State ahead (28th to 57th).
| Texas State | Boise State | |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ overall | 1.5 (65th) | 10.9 (29th) |
| SP+ offense | 33.5 (24th) | 34.2 (18th) |
| SP+ defense | 31.6 (109th) | 23.6 (51st) |
| SP+ special teams | -0.4 (113th) | 0.3 (28th) |
| PRIME net | 2.8 (56th) | 12.1 (21st) |
| PRIME offense | 6.95 (27th) | 11.02 (11th) |
| PRIME defense | -2.47 (92nd) | 1.12 (58th) |
| PRIME SOS | -4.4 (88th) | -3.6 (82nd) |
| PRIME SOR | -0.2 (77th) | 1.9 (21st) |
| Elo | 1565 (57th) | 1718 (28th) |
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Texas State's offense ranks 36th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Boise State defense it faces ranks 47th in EPA per play allowed. Boise State's offense ranks 1st against Texas State's 105th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Boise State's offense against Texas State's defense. The biggest edge on the board is Texas State's backs in the open field: 4th in adjusted open-field yards per carry, against Boise State's 122nd-ranked defense. That's a mismatch. Adjust for opponents and Texas State's offense falls from 16th to 36th in EPA per play: a lot of that came against soft defenses.
| Texas State | Boise State | |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play (adjusted) | +0.16 (36th) | +0.28 (1st) |
| EPA per pass (adjusted) | +0.22 (45th) | +0.33 (9th) |
| EPA per rush (adjusted) | +0.14 (14th) | +0.18 (2nd) |
| Success rate (adjusted) | 47.3% (14th) | 45.9% (27th) |
| Success rate, standard downs (adjusted) | 48.7% (40th) | 48.2% (44th) |
| Success rate, passing downs (adjusted) | 37.4% (1st) | 35.4% (7th) |
| Explosiveness (adjusted) | 0.94 (56th) | 0.97 (13th) |
| Line yards per carry (adjusted) | 3.08 (33rd) | 3.19 (9th) |
| Open-field yards per carry (adjusted) | 1.55 (4th) | 1.31 (23rd) |
| EPA per play allowed (adjusted) | +0.16 (105th) | +0.07 (47th) |
| EPA per pass allowed (adjusted) | +0.27 (114th) | +0.11 (19th) |
| EPA per rush allowed (adjusted) | +0.07 (72nd) | +0.10 (105th) |
| Success rate allowed (adjusted) | 44.4% (102nd) | 40.4% (47th) |
| Explosiveness allowed (adjusted) | 0.93 (64th) | 0.97 (116th) |
| Line yards allowed per carry (adjusted) | 2.94 (64th) | 2.89 (47th) |
| Open-field yards allowed per carry (adjusted) | 0.98 (29th) | 1.36 (122nd) |
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Texas State is about as good throwing (22nd in EPA per pass) as running (8th). Boise State is about as good throwing (17th in EPA per pass) as running (5th). On third down, Boise State has the edge: its offense ranks 43rd in EPA per third-down play, and the defense it faces ranks 110th.
| Texas State | Boise State | |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.28 (16th) | +0.32 (7th) |
| EPA per pass | +0.40 (22nd) | +0.42 (17th) |
| EPA per rush | +0.25 (8th) | +0.26 (5th) |
| EPA per 3rd-down play | +0.65 (22nd) | +0.55 (43rd) |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.16 (102nd) | +0.03 (36th) |
| EPA per pass allowed | +0.34 (115th) | +0.05 (27th) |
| EPA per rush allowed | −0.02 (37th) | +0.09 (83rd) |
| EPA per 3rd-down play allowed | +0.53 (110th) | +0.20 (17th) |
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Texas State outscores FBS opponents by 7.1 a game, and Boise State by 13.8. Texas State's offense ranks 18th in scoring, and the Boise State defense it faces ranks 38th in points allowed. Boise State's offense ranks 36th against Texas State's 111th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Boise State's offense against Texas State's defense.
| Texas State | Boise State | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored | 37.1 (18th) | 34.4 (36th) |
| Points allowed | 30.0 (111th) | 20.6 (38th) |
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Texas State's best matchup is early downs: its offense ranks 23rd in SUPLEX, and Boise State's defense ranks 106th in SUPLEX allowed. That's a mismatch. Boise State has no clear edge here. Its best is 3rd down conversion rate, 38th, against a defense ranked 56th in 3rd down conversions allowed.
| Texas State | Boise State | |
|---|---|---|
| Pass yards / game | 249.1 (47th) | 207.9 (94th) |
| Rush yards / game | 274.4 (5th) | 239.6 (10th) |
| Yards per play | 7.05 (19th) | 6.05 (78th) |
| Yards per carry | 6.22 (11th) | 6.01 (19th) |
| Yards per attempt | 8.72 (29th) | 6.30 (114th) |
| Completion % | 70.5% (28th) | 53.7% (115th) |
| Success rate | 50.0% (16th) | 44.0% (67th) |
| Explosive play rate | 13.9% (36th) | 10.8% (102nd) |
| 3rd down conversion | 55.6% (3rd) | 45.1% (38th) |
| Sack rate (taken) | 5.2% (64th) | 3.4% (25th) |
| INT rate (thrown) | 2.5% (77th) | 0.0% (1st) |
| SUPLEX | 62.7% (23rd) | 54.6% (82nd) |
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Texas State's defense is best placed to limit big plays: it ranks 64th in explosive plays allowed, and Boise State's offense is bottom-40 in explosive play rate (102nd). Boise State's defense is best placed to pick off passes: it ranks 35th in interception rate, and Texas State's offense is middle of the pack at avoiding interceptions (77th).
| Texas State | Boise State | |
|---|---|---|
| Pass yards allowed / game | 292.4 (135th) | 258.6 (120th) |
| Rush yards allowed / game | 114.7 (18th) | 115.3 (19th) |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.65 (66th) | 7.37 (134th) |
| Yards per carry allowed | 3.92 (15th) | 5.08 (87th) |
| Yards per attempt allowed | 6.99 (65th) | 10.00 (135th) |
| Success rate allowed | 42.9% (80th) | 42.3% (72nd) |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.9% (64th) | 14.1% (118th) |
| 3rd downs allowed | 37.1% (56th) | 33.3% (29th) |
| Sack rate (generated) | 2.0% (136th) | 7.6% (34th) |
| INT rate (generated) | 1.4% (111th) | 3.3% (35th) |
| SUPLEX allowed | 56.5% (86th) | 59.5% (106th) |
What opponents managed against them.
Boise State is +0.6 in turnover margin a game and Texas State is −0.7. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 6-point edge for Boise State. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.
| Texas State | Boise State | |
|---|---|---|
| Interceptions thrown / game | 0.71 (59th) | 0.00 (1st) |
| Fumbles lost / game | 0.71 (99th) | 0.43 (53rd) |
| Giveaways / game | 1.43 (88th) | 0.43 (3rd) |
| Interceptions / game | 0.57 (84th) | 0.86 (45th) |
| Fumbles recovered / game | 0.14 (121st) | 0.14 (121st) |
| Takeaways / game | 0.71 (118th) | 1.00 (88th) |
| Turnover margin / game | -0.7 (116th) | +0.6 (27th) |
Per game, from play-by-play.
Boise State has the more talented roster (74th in the 247Sports talent composite; Texas State is 83rd). Boise State also plays further above its talent: +12.2 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Texas State's +4.0.
| Texas State | Boise State | |
|---|---|---|
| Talent composite | 623.2 (83rd) | 641.2 (74th) |
| Blue-chip ratio | 3.8% (103rd) | 3.1% (106th) |
| Players on roster | 107 (94th) | 114 (44th) |
| Rated by 247Sports | 78 (70th) | 96 (6th) |
| 5-star players | 0 (37th) | 0 (37th) |
| 4-star players | 3 (94th) | 3 (94th) |
| 3-star players | 74 (14th) | 87 (1st) |
| Below 3-star | 1 (86th) | 6 (20th) |
| 2026 transfers in | 19 (84th) | 12 (124th) |
| Transfer share | 24.4% (91st) | 12.5% (128th) |
| SP+ vs. talent | +4.0 (43rd) | +12.2 (11th) |
| Returning production | 76.0% (16th) | 66.3% (30th) |
| Returning passing production | 99.8% (17th) | 94.3% (32nd) |
| Returning rushing production | 48.0% (67th) | 100.4% (17th) |
| Returning receiving production | 79.1% (13th) | 39.6% (66th) |
| 2026 recruiting class (national rank) | 74 (74th) | 51 (51st) |
| Recruiting rank, last four classes | 92.2 (87th) | 61.0 (62nd) |
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
| Texas State | Boise State | |
|---|---|---|
| Roster value | — () | $17.3M (69th) |
| Roster cost per win | — () | $2.9M (2nd) |
| Projected wins per $1M | — () | 0.50 (2nd) |
| SP+ vs. payroll | — () | +8.8 (7th) |
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
Texas State is +0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (+0.9). Boise State is +2.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (+1.3).
| Texas State | Boise State | |
|---|---|---|
| BAWA (total) | +0.5 (57th) | +2.5 (8th) |
| Schedule BAWA | +0.9 (45th) | +0.5 (68th) |
| Roster BAWA | -0.1 (76th) | -0.0 (68th) |
| Coach BAWA | +0.2 (59th) | +1.3 (16th) |
| Luck BAWA | -0.5 (102nd) | +0.7 (27th) |
Big Al Wins Added: where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Big Al picks Boise State, 79% to win. All three ratings favor the same team. Boise State's best matchup is its pass protection, 25th in sacks allowed per dropback, against Texas State's pass rush at 136th.
Sat, Oct 31, 10:00 PM ET at Albertsons Stadium, on The CW Network.
DraftKings has Boise State −11.5, total 63.5. Big Al picks winners, not bets.
This is the first meeting.
Texas State: Davian Jackson (RB) hasn't played since Week 5.
Numbers through the games of Oct 24, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Texas State and Boise State: team pages with every stat and national rank. Compare any two teams.