College football, 2026 season
Data-driven picks for every FBS game + interactive charts you can customize to support any narrative (except Big 12 supremacy).
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Everything on this site starts with someone else's data, and we credit all of it. The projections, picks, rankings and tiers are our own math on top.
| Source | What we use | How often |
|---|---|---|
| CollegeFootballData.com, via the public cfbfastR files | Schedules, final scores, pregame Elo, play-by-play and box score stats, rosters | Usually posted Sunday or Monday morning after games |
| DraftKings lines (via The Odds API and CollegeFootballData.com) | The line and total on each game, and where each opened | Every morning, and before kickoffs Thursday to Saturday |
| Team logos and colors (ESPN's, via CollegeFootballData.com) | The logos on charts, game cards and team pages. They belong to the schools and are used only to identify the teams. | Preseason |
| SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update) | Overall, offense, defense and special teams ratings | Weekly |
| PRIME (primecfb.com) | Net, offense, defense and special teams ratings, strength of schedule, strength of record | Weekly |
| AP Top 25 (via NCAA.com) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sunday afternoons |
| AFCA Coaches Poll (via Yahoo Sports, CBS Sports, SI) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sundays |
| 247Sports | Team talent composite, star counts, 2026 transfer portal rankings | Preseason |
| The NIL Standard | Estimated NIL roster values | Preseason |
| us-atlas (U.S. Census Bureau boundaries) | State shapes for the map | Once |
Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of the 138 FBS teams.
About
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About
Last updated October 26, 2026.
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Big Al's CFB Lab publishes college football statistics, projections and opinions. Everything here is for information and entertainment. Projections and picks are estimates from public data and can be wrong, sometimes badly.
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Last updated October 26, 2026.
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Projected scores come from SP+ offense, defense and special teams, plus 2.5 points for the home team. Cards also show DraftKings' line and total as facts: we pick winners, not bets. Open Details for the full read, or Head to head for every stat.
Final scores against what we said before kickoff. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favored, unless he made the call himself on a toss-up or one of the week's biggest games. Ranked means in that week's AP poll. Open a game for the full preview as it stood going into the week.
Straight-up picks: did the pick win? Big Al's pick is the team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favor. Big Al and SP+ picks start in Week 8; Elo picks go back to Week 1.
Each column is that week's ranking. Arrows compare the latest poll to the week before. NR means not ranked.
Rankings come from cfbtrack.com. Week 1 is the preseason poll; each later week is the poll released before that week's games.
SP+ vs. payroll is the average, across a conference's teams with an NIL valuation (positive means its teams play better than their payrolls predict). Blue-chip ratio is the share of all its rostered players who were 4- or 5-star recruits.
Ranks are national, out of 138 FBS teams. A top-10 team also counts toward the top 25 and top 40, and everyone outside the last cutoff counts as weak. Open a conference to see its teams.
Seeds 1–4 get first-round byes. Seeds 5–8 host the first round.
The columns on the right show where each team would be seeded under the other ratings. A dash means out.
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Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor. On the toss-ups and the biggest games, Big Al makes the call himself and says why.
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
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Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Week 9, Sat, Oct 31, 11:00 PM ET, Valley Children's Stadium.
Big Al's pick: Oregon State, 59% to win.
| Kickoff | Sat, Oct 31, 11:00 PM ET |
|---|---|
| TV | USA Net |
| Where | Valley Children's Stadium |
| Weather | 61°, overcast, wind 6 mph |
| Line | Oregon State −5.5, total 57.5 |
| Line movement | Opened Oregon State −7; moved 1.5 points toward Fresno State. Total opened 56.5, up 1. |
| Series | Fresno State leads 9–6 |
| Last meeting | Fresno State 36–27 in 2025 |
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Oregon State by 1.5 | 54% | 54 |
| PRIME | Oregon State by 10.6 | 78% | |
| Elo | Fresno State | 60% | |
| The line | Oregon State −5.5, opened −7 | 57.5, opened 56.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Wed, Oct 28, 2:21 PM ET.
Big Al's pick: Oregon State. 57% to win
SP+ and PRIME take Oregon State, but Elo has Fresno State. Oregon State's best matchup is its offense, 11th in yards per play, against Fresno State's defense at 105th. Fresno State's way back in is its passing game, 29th in EPA per pass, against Oregon State's pass defense at 63rd.
| SP+ offense | SP+ defense | |
|---|---|---|
| Oregon State | 31.6 (37th) | 24.7 (56th) |
| Fresno State | 25.7 (77th) | 23.4 (49th) |
| SUPLEX | SUPLEX allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Oregon State | 68.2% (9th) | 55.4% (81st) |
| Fresno State | 54.0% (86th) | 57.2% (92nd) |
| Success rate | Explosive play rate | |
|---|---|---|
| Oregon State | 50.2% (14th) | 14.9% (22nd) |
| Fresno State | 40.1% (104th) | 12.8% (51st) |
| Success rate allowed | Explosive plays allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Oregon State | 43.1% (83rd) | 9.6% (29th) |
| Fresno State | 45.0% (102nd) | 12.1% (88th) |
| Yards per carry | Yards per attempt | |
|---|---|---|
| Oregon State | 5.40 (52nd) | 8.95 (21st) |
| Fresno State | 5.26 (66th) | 6.74 (105th) |
| 3rd down conversion | 3rd downs allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Oregon State | 45.1% (40th) | 43.0% (100th) |
| Fresno State | 32.6% (121st) | 37.8% (61st) |
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Oregon State and Fresno State are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 24, 2026.
| Player | Passing success rate (per dropback) | Passing yards |
|---|---|---|
| Braden Atkinson, Oregon State | 49.8% (20th) | 2,636 (1st) |
| Jayden Mandal, Fresno State | 44.4% (63rd) | 1,425 (70th) |
| Player | Yards per carry | Rushing success rate |
|---|---|---|
| AJ Newberry, Oregon State | 6.7 (36th) | 56.3% (21st) |
| Bryson Donelson, Fresno State | 4.6 (220th) | 38.5% (261st) |
| Player | Explosive catches (16+ yards) | Receiving yards |
|---|---|---|
| Jesse Legree, Oregon State | 23 (1st) | 1,042 (1st) |
| Aaron Butler, Oregon State | 7 (172nd) | 206 (346th) |
| Josiah Freeman, Fresno State | 14 (26th) | 424 (84th) |
| Ezekiel Avit, Fresno State | 5 (272nd) | 343 (144th) |
| Player | Sacks | INTs | Fumble recoveries | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Takari Hickle, Oregon State | 5 | 0 | 0 | 26th |
| Dylan Hampsten, Fresno State | 1 | 0 | 2 | 141st |
| Simeon Harris, Fresno State | 0 | 3 | 0 | 142nd |
| Aiden Sullivan, Oregon State | 2 | 0 | 0 | 477th |
| Sailasa Vadrawale, Oregon State | 0 | 1 | 1 | 478th |
| Deijon Laffitte, Fresno State | 1 | 0 | 1 | 338th |
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 24, 2026.
On a neutral field, SP+ has Oregon State 4.0 points better (50th to 61st). PRIME also has Oregon State ahead, by 13.1. Elo, which only sees results, has Fresno State ahead (42nd to 47th).
| Oregon State | Fresno State | |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ overall | 6.6 (50th) | 2.6 (61st) |
| SP+ offense | 31.6 (37th) | 25.7 (77th) |
| SP+ defense | 24.7 (56th) | 23.4 (49th) |
| SP+ special teams | -0.3 (104th) | 0.3 (28th) |
| PRIME net | 8.9 (32nd) | -4.2 (88th) |
| PRIME offense | 9.04 (18th) | -1.58 (78th) |
| PRIME defense | 0.58 (62nd) | -3.43 (97th) |
| PRIME SOS | -7.9 (123rd) | -4.8 (92nd) |
| PRIME SOR | 0.2 (62nd) | -0.3 (78th) |
| Elo | 1611 (47th) | 1628 (42nd) |
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Oregon State's offense ranks 15th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Fresno State defense it faces ranks 48th in EPA per play allowed. Fresno State's offense ranks 72nd against Oregon State's 73rd-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Oregon State's offense against Fresno State's defense. The biggest edge on the board is Oregon State's efficiency: 23rd in adjusted success rate, against Fresno State's 93rd-ranked defense. That's a mismatch.
| Oregon State | Fresno State | |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play (adjusted) | +0.21 (15th) | +0.10 (72nd) |
| EPA per pass (adjusted) | +0.31 (14th) | +0.25 (29th) |
| EPA per rush (adjusted) | +0.09 (47th) | +0.03 (109th) |
| Success rate (adjusted) | 46.1% (23rd) | 39.4% (98th) |
| Success rate, standard downs (adjusted) | 51.2% (15th) | 43.6% (121st) |
| Success rate, passing downs (adjusted) | 31.8% (38th) | 31.8% (39th) |
| Explosiveness (adjusted) | 0.91 (119th) | 0.95 (38th) |
| Line yards per carry (adjusted) | 3.08 (30th) | 2.81 (115th) |
| Open-field yards per carry (adjusted) | 1.13 (70th) | 1.30 (26th) |
| EPA per play allowed (adjusted) | +0.11 (73rd) | +0.07 (48th) |
| EPA per pass allowed (adjusted) | +0.18 (63rd) | +0.17 (58th) |
| EPA per rush allowed (adjusted) | +0.06 (68th) | +0.04 (47th) |
| Success rate allowed (adjusted) | 41.3% (61st) | 43.1% (93rd) |
| Explosiveness allowed (adjusted) | 0.92 (41st) | 0.92 (28th) |
| Line yards allowed per carry (adjusted) | 2.97 (72nd) | 2.95 (68th) |
| Open-field yards allowed per carry (adjusted) | 1.18 (85th) | 1.28 (105th) |
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Oregon State is about as good throwing (17th in EPA per pass) as running (16th). Fresno State is better throwing (39th in EPA per pass) than running (124th). Oregon State's pass defense ranks 50th.
| Oregon State | Fresno State | |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.32 (7th) | +0.10 (83rd) |
| EPA per pass | +0.42 (17th) | +0.33 (39th) |
| EPA per rush | +0.22 (16th) | −0.04 (124th) |
| EPA per 3rd-down play | +0.63 (25th) | +0.36 (93rd) |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.10 (73rd) | +0.04 (42nd) |
| EPA per pass allowed | +0.12 (50th) | +0.12 (50th) |
| EPA per rush allowed | +0.08 (76th) | +0.02 (54th) |
| EPA per 3rd-down play allowed | +0.45 (86th) | +0.23 (20th) |
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Oregon State outscores FBS opponents by 19.6 a game, and Fresno State by 6.7. Oregon State's offense ranks 4th in scoring, and the Fresno State defense it faces ranks 40th in points allowed. Fresno State's offense ranks 78th against Oregon State's 61st-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Oregon State's offense against Fresno State's defense.
| Oregon State | Fresno State | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored | 42.7 (4th) | 27.6 (78th) |
| Points allowed | 23.1 (61st) | 20.9 (40th) |
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Oregon State's best matchup is staying on schedule: its offense ranks 14th in success rate, and Fresno State's defense ranks 102nd in success rate allowed. That's a mismatch. Fresno State's best matchup is its run game: its offense ranks 66th in yards per carry, and Oregon State's defense ranks 98th in yards per carry allowed.
| Oregon State | Fresno State | |
|---|---|---|
| Pass yards / game | 387.6 (1st) | 216.7 (83rd) |
| Rush yards / game | 157.4 (83rd) | 151.1 (90th) |
| Yards per play | 7.39 (11th) | 5.89 (90th) |
| Yards per carry | 5.40 (52nd) | 5.26 (66th) |
| Yards per attempt | 8.95 (21st) | 6.74 (105th) |
| Completion % | 66.7% (46th) | 56.4% (104th) |
| Success rate | 50.2% (14th) | 40.1% (104th) |
| Explosive play rate | 14.9% (22nd) | 12.8% (51st) |
| 3rd down conversion | 45.1% (40th) | 32.6% (121st) |
| Sack rate (taken) | 2.9% (16th) | 4.7% (45th) |
| INT rate (thrown) | 0.7% (9th) | 0.4% (3rd) |
| SUPLEX | 68.2% (9th) | 54.0% (86th) |
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Neither defense ranks 25 spots ahead of the offense it faces in any of these, so expect both offenses to look like themselves.
| Oregon State | Fresno State | |
|---|---|---|
| Pass yards allowed / game | 181.1 (23rd) | 213.9 (71st) |
| Rush yards allowed / game | 160.7 (82nd) | 179.9 (106th) |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.77 (74th) | 6.42 (105th) |
| Yards per carry allowed | 5.28 (98th) | 5.40 (104th) |
| Yards per attempt allowed | 6.85 (56th) | 8.18 (96th) |
| Success rate allowed | 43.1% (83rd) | 45.0% (102nd) |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.6% (29th) | 12.1% (88th) |
| 3rd downs allowed | 43.0% (100th) | 37.8% (61st) |
| Sack rate (generated) | 8.4% (21st) | 6.6% (58th) |
| INT rate (generated) | 3.2% (40th) | 3.8% (19th) |
| SUPLEX allowed | 55.4% (81st) | 57.2% (92nd) |
What opponents managed against them.
Fresno State is +1.1 in turnover margin a game and Oregon State is +0.7. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 2-point edge for Fresno State. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it. Fumble recoveries are mostly luck, and Fresno State's takeaways lean on them (0.7 of 1.7 a game).
| Oregon State | Fresno State | |
|---|---|---|
| Interceptions thrown / game | 0.29 (17th) | 0.14 (5th) |
| Fumbles lost / game | 0.29 (20th) | 0.43 (53rd) |
| Giveaways / game | 0.57 (7th) | 0.57 (7th) |
| Interceptions / game | 0.86 (45th) | 1.00 (22nd) |
| Fumbles recovered / game | 0.43 (68th) | 0.71 (22nd) |
| Takeaways / game | 1.29 (54th) | 1.71 (16th) |
| Turnover margin / game | +0.7 (18th) | +1.1 (7th) |
Per game, from play-by-play.
Oregon State has the more talented roster (76th in the 247Sports talent composite; Fresno State is 88th). Oregon State also plays further above its talent: +8.3 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Fresno State's +5.9.
| Oregon State | Fresno State | |
|---|---|---|
| Talent composite | 635.8 (76th) | 609.8 (88th) |
| Blue-chip ratio | 7.0% (85th) | 1.1% (125th) |
| Players on roster | 108 (87th) | 115 (40th) |
| Rated by 247Sports | 71 (93rd) | 91 (19th) |
| 5-star players | 0 (37th) | 0 (37th) |
| 4-star players | 5 (81st) | 1 (119th) |
| 3-star players | 64 (56th) | 79 (7th) |
| Below 3-star | 2 (68th) | 11 (3rd) |
| 2026 transfers in | 21 (67th) | 13 (120th) |
| Transfer share | 29.6% (64th) | 14.3% (125th) |
| SP+ vs. talent | +8.3 (24th) | +5.9 (34th) |
| Returning production | 57.9% (45th) | 38.3% (71st) |
| Returning passing production | 89.7% (46th) | 7.3% (88th) |
| Returning rushing production | 143.7% (5th) | 16.6% (96th) |
| Returning receiving production | 40.9% (65th) | 69.5% (18th) |
| 2026 recruiting class (national rank) | 100 (100th) | 70 (70th) |
| Recruiting rank, last four classes | 75.0 (72nd) | 85.5 (80th) |
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
| Oregon State | Fresno State | |
|---|---|---|
| Roster value | $12.6M (70th) | — () |
| Roster cost per win | $2.5M (1st) | — () |
| Projected wins per $1M | 0.60 (1st) | — () |
| SP+ vs. payroll | +11.5 (2nd) | — () |
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
Oregon State is +1.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (+1.1). Fresno State is +0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (+1.0).
| Oregon State | Fresno State | |
|---|---|---|
| BAWA (total) | +1.5 (30th) | +0.5 (57th) |
| Schedule BAWA | +1.1 (39th) | +1.0 (43rd) |
| Roster BAWA | -0.1 (74th) | -0.3 (92nd) |
| Coach BAWA | +0.6 (41st) | +0.6 (46th) |
| Luck BAWA | -0.1 (77th) | -0.8 (113th) |
Big Al Wins Added: where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Big Al picks Oregon State, 57% to win. SP+ and PRIME agree; Elo has Fresno State. Oregon State's best matchup is its offense, 11th in yards per play, against Fresno State's defense at 105th.
Sat, Oct 31, 11:00 PM ET at Valley Children's Stadium, on USA Net.
DraftKings has Oregon State −5.5, total 57.5. Big Al picks winners, not bets.
Fresno State leads 9–6. Last meeting: Fresno State won 36–27 in 2025.
Oregon State's is Braden Atkinson (2,636 passing yards this season); Fresno State's is Jayden Mandal (1,425 passing yards this season).
Numbers through the games of Oct 24, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Oregon State and Fresno State: team pages with every stat and national rank. Compare any two teams.