College football, 2026 season
Data-driven picks for every FBS game + interactive charts you can customize to support any narrative (except Big 12 supremacy).
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Everything on this site starts with someone else's data, and we credit all of it. The projections, picks, rankings and tiers are our own math on top.
| Source | What we use | How often |
|---|---|---|
| CollegeFootballData.com, via the public cfbfastR files | Schedules, final scores, pregame Elo, play-by-play and box score stats, rosters | Usually posted Sunday or Monday morning after games |
| DraftKings lines (via The Odds API and CollegeFootballData.com) | The line and total on each game, and where each opened | Every morning, and before kickoffs Thursday to Saturday |
| Team logos and colors (ESPN's, via CollegeFootballData.com) | The logos on charts, game cards and team pages. They belong to the schools and are used only to identify the teams. | Preseason |
| SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update) | Overall, offense, defense and special teams ratings | Weekly |
| PRIME (primecfb.com) | Net, offense, defense and special teams ratings, strength of schedule, strength of record | Weekly |
| AP Top 25 (via NCAA.com) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sunday afternoons |
| AFCA Coaches Poll (via Yahoo Sports, CBS Sports, SI) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sundays |
| 247Sports | Team talent composite, star counts, 2026 transfer portal rankings | Preseason |
| The NIL Standard | Estimated NIL roster values | Preseason |
| us-atlas (U.S. Census Bureau boundaries) | State shapes for the map | Once |
Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of the 138 FBS teams.
About
Every stat and term on the site, explained like you're five. Or like you're a grown adult who never asked what EPA means and is now too embarrassed to.
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What the numbers on team pages, charts and head to head mean.
How Big Al's picks, tiers and projections work. The full method is on Sources and methods.
Who's who and how the 12-team field works.
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For where the numbers come from and the exact math, see Sources and methods. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
About
Last updated October 26, 2026.
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Big Al's CFB Lab publishes college football statistics, projections and opinions. Everything here is for information and entertainment. Projections and picks are estimates from public data and can be wrong, sometimes badly.
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Last updated October 26, 2026.
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Projected scores come from SP+ offense, defense and special teams, plus 2.5 points for the home team. Cards also show DraftKings' line and total as facts: we pick winners, not bets. Open Details for the full read, or Head to head for every stat.
Final scores against what we said before kickoff. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favored, unless he made the call himself on a toss-up or one of the week's biggest games. Ranked means in that week's AP poll. Open a game for the full preview as it stood going into the week.
Straight-up picks: did the pick win? Big Al's pick is the team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favor. Big Al and SP+ picks start in Week 8; Elo picks go back to Week 1.
Each column is that week's ranking. Arrows compare the latest poll to the week before. NR means not ranked.
Rankings come from cfbtrack.com. Week 1 is the preseason poll; each later week is the poll released before that week's games.
SP+ vs. payroll is the average, across a conference's teams with an NIL valuation (positive means its teams play better than their payrolls predict). Blue-chip ratio is the share of all its rostered players who were 4- or 5-star recruits.
Ranks are national, out of 138 FBS teams. A top-10 team also counts toward the top 25 and top 40, and everyone outside the last cutoff counts as weak. Open a conference to see its teams.
Seeds 1–4 get first-round byes. Seeds 5–8 host the first round.
The columns on the right show where each team would be seeded under the other ratings. A dash means out.
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor. On the toss-ups and the biggest games, Big Al makes the call himself and says why.
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
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Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Week 9, Sat, Oct 31, 12:00 PM ET, Jones AT&T Stadium.
Big Al's pick: Arizona, 47% to win.
| Kickoff | Sat, Oct 31, 12:00 PM ET |
|---|---|
| TV | ESPN |
| Where | Jones AT&T Stadium |
| Weather | 60°, overcast, wind 5 mph |
| Line | Texas Tech −3.5, total 54.5 |
| Line movement | Opened Texas Tech −7.5; moved 4 points toward Arizona. Total opened 52.5, up 2. |
| Series | Texas Tech leads 27–5–2 |
| Last meeting | Texas Tech 28–22 in 2024 |
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Texas Tech by 4.9 | 64% | 57 |
| PRIME | Arizona by 8.6 | 73% | |
| Elo | Texas Tech | 60% | |
| The line | Texas Tech −3.5, opened −7.5 | 54.5, opened 52.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Wed, Oct 28, 2:21 PM ET.
Big Al's call: Arizona. I believe in Noah Fifita. He's 13th in passing success rate, and Tech's pass defense hasn't seen anyone like him all season. He's not the little engine that could, he's the little engine that will. Arizona wins it late.
The ratings split and average out to about 50-50, with Texas Tech ahead by a hair. Texas Tech's best matchup is its 3rd down offense, 20th in 3rd down conversion, against Arizona's 3rd down defense at 101st. Arizona's way back in is its pass rush, 13th in sack rate, against Texas Tech's pass protection at 58th.
| SP+ offense | SP+ defense | |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona | 35.4 (14th) | 19.0 (24th) |
| Texas Tech | 36.2 (10th) | 18.2 (23rd) |
| SUPLEX | SUPLEX allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona | 60.6% (33rd) | 45.5% (20th) |
| Texas Tech | 69.5% (5th) | 45.5% (20th) |
| Success rate | Explosive play rate | |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona | 46.2% (40th) | 13.1% (45th) |
| Texas Tech | 53.4% (3rd) | 15.5% (13th) |
| Success rate allowed | Explosive plays allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona | 38.2% (44th) | 11.7% (82nd) |
| Texas Tech | 36.7% (29th) | 10.7% (60th) |
| Yards per carry | Yards per attempt | |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona | 5.34 (57th) | 7.81 (62nd) |
| Texas Tech | 5.64 (36th) | 9.57 (10th) |
| 3rd down conversion | 3rd downs allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona | 44.8% (42nd) | 43.2% (101st) |
| Texas Tech | 47.9% (20th) | 34.2% (36th) |
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Arizona and Texas Tech are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 24, 2026.
| Player | Passing success rate (per dropback) | Passing yards |
|---|---|---|
| Noah Fifita, Arizona | 51.9% (13th) | 2,058 (14th) |
| Will Hammond, Texas Tech | 47.2% (38th) | 1,591 (46th) |
| Player | Yards per carry | Rushing success rate |
|---|---|---|
| Kedrick Reescano, Arizona | 3.9 (297th) | 40.3% (232nd) |
| J'Koby Williams, Texas Tech | 7.2 (22nd) | 47.1% (108th) |
| Player | Explosive catches (16+ yards) | Receiving yards |
|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Mizell, Arizona | 8 (113th) | 493 (56th) |
| Tre Spivey, Arizona | 8 (114th) | 314 (175th) |
| Kenny Johnson, Texas Tech | 11 (70th) | 499 (53rd) |
| Coy Eakin, Texas Tech | 4 (401st) | 263 (252nd) |
| Player | Sacks | INTs | Fumble recoveries | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Holmes Jr., Texas Tech | 4 | 0 | 0 | 85th |
| Chase Kennedy, Arizona | 3 | 0 | 0 | 102nd |
| Dash Fifita, Arizona | 3 | 0 | 0 | 103rd |
| John Curry, Texas Tech | 0 | 3 | 0 | 224th |
| Tyrese Boss, Arizona | 1 | 0 | 1 | 269th |
| Amier Boyd-Matthews, Texas Tech | 0 | 2 | 0 | 526th |
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 24, 2026.
On a neutral field, SP+ has Texas Tech 2.4 points better (9th to 14th). PRIME has Arizona by 11.1 instead. The two ratings split on Texas Tech's offense: 10th in SP+, 55th in PRIME. Elo, which only sees results, also has Texas Tech ahead (13th to 15th).
| Arizona | Texas Tech | |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ overall | 16.0 (14th) | 18.4 (9th) |
| SP+ offense | 35.4 (14th) | 36.2 (10th) |
| SP+ defense | 19.0 (24th) | 18.2 (23rd) |
| SP+ special teams | -0.4 (113th) | 0.4 (11th) |
| PRIME net | 15.5 (14th) | 4.4 (47th) |
| PRIME offense | 8.73 (20th) | 1.20 (55th) |
| PRIME defense | 5.64 (25th) | 2.31 (51st) |
| PRIME SOS | -3.0 (74th) | -0.4 (48th) |
| PRIME SOR | 2.0 (20th) | 2.4 (15th) |
| Elo | 1811 (15th) | 1825 (13th) |
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Arizona's offense ranks 26th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Texas Tech defense it faces ranks 16th in EPA per play allowed. Texas Tech's offense ranks 48th against Arizona's 17th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge. The biggest edge on the board is Texas Tech's big plays: 67th in adjusted explosiveness, against Arizona's 108th-ranked defense.
| Arizona | Texas Tech | |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play (adjusted) | +0.18 (26th) | +0.13 (48th) |
| EPA per pass (adjusted) | +0.30 (16th) | +0.21 (49th) |
| EPA per rush (adjusted) | +0.08 (55th) | +0.12 (29th) |
| Success rate (adjusted) | 44.6% (35th) | 46.4% (20th) |
| Success rate, standard downs (adjusted) | 46.9% (67th) | 50.5% (22nd) |
| Success rate, passing downs (adjusted) | 36.1% (4th) | 32.5% (28th) |
| Explosiveness (adjusted) | 0.95 (44th) | 0.94 (67th) |
| Line yards per carry (adjusted) | 2.95 (71st) | 3.09 (29th) |
| Open-field yards per carry (adjusted) | 1.06 (92nd) | 1.39 (10th) |
| EPA per play allowed (adjusted) | +0.02 (17th) | +0.02 (16th) |
| EPA per pass allowed (adjusted) | +0.11 (23rd) | +0.11 (21st) |
| EPA per rush allowed (adjusted) | +0.02 (32nd) | +0.03 (38th) |
| Success rate allowed (adjusted) | 38.7% (28th) | 39.0% (30th) |
| Explosiveness allowed (adjusted) | 0.96 (108th) | 0.93 (58th) |
| Line yards allowed per carry (adjusted) | 2.84 (33rd) | 2.89 (48th) |
| Open-field yards allowed per carry (adjusted) | 0.97 (24th) | 1.11 (61st) |
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Arizona is better throwing (12th in EPA per pass) than running (49th). Texas Tech's pass defense ranks 21st, so that's strength on strength. Texas Tech is better running (32nd in EPA per rush) than throwing (52nd). Arizona's run defense ranks 37th.
| Arizona | Texas Tech | |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.27 (19th) | +0.15 (63rd) |
| EPA per pass | +0.44 (12th) | +0.26 (52nd) |
| EPA per rush | +0.14 (49th) | +0.18 (32nd) |
| EPA per 3rd-down play | +0.59 (34th) | +0.47 (64th) |
| EPA per play allowed | −0.05 (14th) | −0.04 (16th) |
| EPA per pass allowed | −0.04 (8th) | +0.04 (21st) |
| EPA per rush allowed | −0.02 (37th) | −0.07 (18th) |
| EPA per 3rd-down play allowed | +0.39 (68th) | +0.07 (5th) |
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Arizona outscores FBS opponents by 19.4 a game, and Texas Tech by 15.5. Arizona's offense ranks 21st in scoring, and the Texas Tech defense it faces ranks 35th in points allowed. Texas Tech's offense ranks 26th against Arizona's 23rd-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge.
| Arizona | Texas Tech | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored | 36.1 (21st) | 35.9 (26th) |
| Points allowed | 16.7 (23rd) | 20.4 (35th) |
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Arizona has no clear edge here. Its best is explosive play rate, 45th, against a defense ranked 60th in explosive plays allowed. Texas Tech's best matchup is third downs: its offense ranks 20th in 3rd down conversion rate, and Arizona's defense ranks 101st in 3rd down conversions allowed. That's a mismatch.
| Arizona | Texas Tech | |
|---|---|---|
| Pass yards / game | 310.0 (9th) | 233.7 (66th) |
| Rush yards / game | 155.0 (87th) | 199.1 (31st) |
| Yards per play | 6.54 (41st) | 7.10 (15th) |
| Yards per carry | 5.34 (57th) | 5.64 (36th) |
| Yards per attempt | 7.81 (62nd) | 9.57 (10th) |
| Completion % | 63.7% (68th) | 83.0% (3rd) |
| Success rate | 46.2% (40th) | 53.4% (3rd) |
| Explosive play rate | 13.1% (45th) | 15.5% (13th) |
| 3rd down conversion | 44.8% (42nd) | 47.9% (20th) |
| Sack rate (taken) | 5.8% (76th) | 5.0% (58th) |
| INT rate (thrown) | 2.2% (59th) | 4.1% (126th) |
| SUPLEX | 60.6% (33rd) | 69.5% (5th) |
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Arizona's defense is best placed to get home: it ranks 13th in sack rate, and Texas Tech's offense is middle of the pack at avoiding sacks (58th). Texas Tech's defense is best placed to pick off passes: it ranks 16th in interception rate, and Arizona's offense is middle of the pack at avoiding interceptions (59th).
| Arizona | Texas Tech | |
|---|---|---|
| Pass yards allowed / game | 214.0 (72nd) | 271.7 (129th) |
| Rush yards allowed / game | 123.7 (30th) | 125.4 (33rd) |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.64 (61st) | 5.24 (28th) |
| Yards per carry allowed | 4.07 (22nd) | 4.67 (60th) |
| Yards per attempt allowed | 8.01 (91st) | 5.91 (21st) |
| Success rate allowed | 38.2% (44th) | 36.7% (29th) |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.7% (82nd) | 10.7% (60th) |
| 3rd downs allowed | 43.2% (101st) | 34.2% (36th) |
| Sack rate (generated) | 9.2% (13th) | 6.1% (69th) |
| INT rate (generated) | 1.1% (123rd) | 4.0% (16th) |
| SUPLEX allowed | 45.5% (20th) | 45.5% (20th) |
What opponents managed against them.
Texas Tech is +0.3 in turnover margin a game and Arizona is −0.3. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 3-point edge for Texas Tech. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.
| Arizona | Texas Tech | |
|---|---|---|
| Interceptions thrown / game | 0.86 (84th) | 1.00 (105th) |
| Fumbles lost / game | 0.29 (20th) | 0.71 (99th) |
| Giveaways / game | 1.14 (53rd) | 1.71 (117th) |
| Interceptions / game | 0.29 (119th) | 1.86 (2nd) |
| Fumbles recovered / game | 0.57 (49th) | 0.14 (121st) |
| Takeaways / game | 0.86 (107th) | 2.00 (6th) |
| Turnover margin / game | -0.3 (95th) | +0.3 (50th) |
Per game, from play-by-play.
Texas Tech has the more talented roster (28th in the 247Sports talent composite; Arizona is 54th). But Arizona plays further above its talent: +13.7 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Texas Tech's +11.8.
| Arizona | Texas Tech | |
|---|---|---|
| Talent composite | 699.6 (54th) | 767.9 (28th) |
| Blue-chip ratio | 15.5% (48th) | 29.3% (29th) |
| Players on roster | 103 (119th) | 108 (87th) |
| Rated by 247Sports | 84 (44th) | 82 (52nd) |
| 5-star players | 0 (37th) | 2 (19th) |
| 4-star players | 13 (46th) | 22 (30th) |
| 3-star players | 67 (45th) | 56 (92nd) |
| Below 3-star | 4 (38th) | 2 (68th) |
| 2026 transfers in | 23 (56th) | 23 (56th) |
| Transfer share | 27.4% (76th) | 28.0% (74th) |
| SP+ vs. talent | +13.7 (10th) | +11.8 (13th) |
| Returning production | 64.9% (33rd) | 53.4% (53rd) |
| Returning passing production | 119.9% (3rd) | 26.8% (68th) |
| Returning rushing production | 60.3% (57th) | 98.8% (23rd) |
| Returning receiving production | 43.8% (58th) | 57.0% (34th) |
| 2026 recruiting class (national rank) | 42 (42nd) | 18 (18th) |
| Recruiting rank, last four classes | 54.2 (56th) | 29.8 (25th) |
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Texas Tech's roster is valued at $33.4M, Arizona's at $19.9M. Dollar for dollar, Arizona plays better: +10.9 points of SP+ above what its payroll predicts, to +2.1 for Texas Tech.
| Arizona | Texas Tech | |
|---|---|---|
| Roster value | $19.9M (55th) | $33.4M (10th) |
| Roster cost per win | $3.3M (5th) | $5.6M (38th) |
| Projected wins per $1M | 0.46 (4th) | 0.29 (33rd) |
| SP+ vs. payroll | +10.9 (3rd) | +2.1 (29th) |
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
Arizona is +2.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (+1.3). Texas Tech is +2.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (+1.5).
| Arizona | Texas Tech | |
|---|---|---|
| BAWA (total) | +2.5 (8th) | +2.5 (8th) |
| Schedule BAWA | +0.8 (50th) | +0.3 (76th) |
| Roster BAWA | +0.3 (50th) | +0.7 (25th) |
| Coach BAWA | +1.3 (20th) | +1.5 (12th) |
| Luck BAWA | +0.1 (62nd) | -0.0 (70th) |
Big Al Wins Added: where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
The ratings call it a coin flip, and Big Al takes Arizona. I believe in Noah Fifita. He's 13th in passing success rate, and Tech's pass defense hasn't seen anyone like him all season. He's not the little engine that could, he's the little engine that will. Arizona wins it late.
Sat, Oct 31, 12:00 PM ET at Jones AT&T Stadium, on ESPN.
DraftKings has Texas Tech −3.5, total 54.5. Big Al picks winners, not bets.
Texas Tech leads 27–5–2. Last meeting: Texas Tech won 28–22 in 2024.
Arizona's is Noah Fifita (2,058 passing yards this season); Texas Tech's is Will Hammond (1,591 passing yards this season).
Numbers through the games of Oct 24, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Arizona and Texas Tech: team pages with every stat and national rank. Compare any two teams.