College football, 2026 season
Data-driven picks for every FBS game + interactive charts you can customize to support any narrative (except Big 12 supremacy).
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Everything on this site starts with someone else's data, and we credit all of it. The projections, picks, rankings and tiers are our own math on top.
| Source | What we use | How often |
|---|---|---|
| CollegeFootballData.com, via the public cfbfastR files | Schedules, final scores, pregame Elo, play-by-play and box score stats, rosters | Usually posted Sunday or Monday morning after games |
| DraftKings lines (via The Odds API and CollegeFootballData.com) | The line and total on each game, and where each opened | Every morning, and before kickoffs Thursday to Saturday |
| Team logos and colors (ESPN's, via CollegeFootballData.com) | The logos on charts, game cards and team pages. They belong to the schools and are used only to identify the teams. | Preseason |
| SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update) | Overall, offense, defense and special teams ratings | Weekly |
| PRIME (primecfb.com) | Net, offense, defense and special teams ratings, strength of schedule, strength of record | Weekly |
| AP Top 25 (via NCAA.com) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sunday afternoons |
| AFCA Coaches Poll (via Yahoo Sports, CBS Sports, SI) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sundays |
| 247Sports | Team talent composite, star counts, 2026 transfer portal rankings | Preseason |
| The NIL Standard | Estimated NIL roster values | Preseason |
| us-atlas (U.S. Census Bureau boundaries) | State shapes for the map | Once |
Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of the 138 FBS teams.
About
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About
Last updated October 26, 2026.
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Big Al's CFB Lab publishes college football statistics, projections and opinions. Everything here is for information and entertainment. Projections and picks are estimates from public data and can be wrong, sometimes badly.
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Last updated October 26, 2026.
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Projected scores come from SP+ offense, defense and special teams, plus 2.5 points for the home team. Cards also show DraftKings' line and total as facts: we pick winners, not bets. Open Details for the full read, or Head to head for every stat.
Final scores against what we said before kickoff. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favored, unless he made the call himself on a toss-up or one of the week's biggest games. Ranked means in that week's AP poll. Open a game for the full preview as it stood going into the week.
Straight-up picks: did the pick win? Big Al's pick is the team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favor. Big Al and SP+ picks start in Week 8; Elo picks go back to Week 1.
Each column is that week's ranking. Arrows compare the latest poll to the week before. NR means not ranked.
Rankings come from cfbtrack.com. Week 1 is the preseason poll; each later week is the poll released before that week's games.
SP+ vs. payroll is the average, across a conference's teams with an NIL valuation (positive means its teams play better than their payrolls predict). Blue-chip ratio is the share of all its rostered players who were 4- or 5-star recruits.
Ranks are national, out of 138 FBS teams. A top-10 team also counts toward the top 25 and top 40, and everyone outside the last cutoff counts as weak. Open a conference to see its teams.
Seeds 1–4 get first-round byes. Seeds 5–8 host the first round.
The columns on the right show where each team would be seeded under the other ratings. A dash means out.
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor. On the toss-ups and the biggest games, Big Al makes the call himself and says why.
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
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Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Week 9, Sat, Oct 31, 2:00 PM ET, Folsom Field.
Big Al's pick: Kansas State, 72% to win.
| Kickoff | Sat, Oct 31, 2:00 PM ET |
|---|---|
| TV | TNT |
| Where | Folsom Field |
| Weather | 51°, wind 3 mph |
| Line | Kansas State −1.5, total 47.5 |
| Line movement | Opened Kansas State −3.5; moved 2 points toward Colorado. Total opened 48.5, down 1. |
| Series | Colorado leads 45–22–1 |
| Last meeting | Kansas State 24–14 in 2025 |
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Kansas State by 10.6 | 78% | 52 |
| PRIME | Kansas State by 1.6 | 55% | |
| Elo | Kansas State | 83% | |
| The line | Kansas State −1.5, opened −3.5 | 47.5, opened 48.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Wed, Oct 28, 2:21 PM ET.
Big Al's pick: Kansas State. 72% to win
All three ratings favor Kansas State, by 1.6 to 10.6 points. Kansas State's best matchup is its 3rd down offense, 2nd in 3rd down conversion, against Colorado's 3rd down defense at 123rd. Colorado's way back in is its run-stopping front, 15th in line yards allowed per carry, against Kansas State's offensive line at 60th.
| SP+ offense | SP+ defense | |
|---|---|---|
| Kansas State | 31.4 (40th) | 23.0 (45th) |
| Colorado | 22.7 (103rd) | 26.5 (71st) |
| SUPLEX | SUPLEX allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Kansas State | 58.5% (47th) | 50.8% (45th) |
| Colorado | 49.2% (116th) | 58.7% (101st) |
| Success rate | Explosive play rate | |
|---|---|---|
| Kansas State | 49.0% (20th) | 11.2% (96th) |
| Colorado | 36.9% (125th) | 10.9% (100th) |
| Success rate allowed | Explosive plays allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Kansas State | 34.1% (10th) | 12.6% (98th) |
| Colorado | 44.1% (93rd) | 14.8% (126th) |
| Yards per carry | Yards per attempt | |
|---|---|---|
| Kansas State | 6.31 (8th) | 6.99 (94th) |
| Colorado | 4.43 (117th) | 6.68 (110th) |
| 3rd down conversion | 3rd downs allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Kansas State | 56.8% (2nd) | 32.0% (21st) |
| Colorado | 31.8% (123rd) | 46.6% (123rd) |
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Kansas State and Colorado are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 24, 2026.
| Player | Passing success rate (per dropback) | Passing yards |
|---|---|---|
| Avery Johnson, Kansas State | 46.3% (47th) | 1,315 (83rd) |
| Isaac Wilson, Colorado | 44.0% (70th) | 999 (107th) |
| Player | Yards per carry | Rushing success rate |
|---|---|---|
| Rodney Fields Jr., Kansas State | 5.2 (141st) | 46.9% (110th) |
| Jaquail Smith, Colorado | 4.7 (205th) | 42.2% (202nd) |
| Player | Explosive catches (16+ yards) | Receiving yards |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Smith, Kansas State | 8 (130th) | 366 (124th) |
| Jaron Tibbs, Kansas State | 4 (354th) | 327 (160th) |
| Joseph Williams, Colorado | 16 (15th) | 661 (18th) |
| DeAndre Moore Jr., Colorado | 8 (121st) | 418 (88th) |
| Player | Sacks | INTs | Fumble recoveries | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamont Lester Jr., Colorado | 5 | 0 | 0 | 18th |
| Jayden Bryant, Kansas State | 3 | 0 | 0 | 158th |
| Wendell Gregory, Kansas State | 3 | 0 | 0 | 159th |
| Darien Whitaker Jr., Kansas State | 0 | 0 | 2 | 373rd |
| Liona Lefau, Colorado | 2 | 0 | 0 | 312th |
| Naeten Mitchell, Colorado | 0 | 1 | 1 | 313th |
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 24, 2026.
On a neutral field, SP+ has Kansas State 13.1 points better (39th to 93rd). PRIME also has Kansas State ahead, by 4.1. Elo, which only sees results, also has Kansas State ahead (49th to 112th).
| Kansas State | Colorado | |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ overall | 8.8 (39th) | -4.3 (93rd) |
| SP+ offense | 31.4 (40th) | 22.7 (103rd) |
| SP+ defense | 23.0 (45th) | 26.5 (71st) |
| SP+ special teams | 0.4 (11th) | -0.6 (131st) |
| PRIME net | 4.6 (46th) | 0.5 (66th) |
| PRIME offense | 2.64 (41st) | -3.46 (92nd) |
| PRIME defense | 1.25 (56th) | 4.59 (31st) |
| PRIME SOS | -2.7 (72nd) | 4.9 (9th) |
| PRIME SOR | 0.0 (71st) | -0.7 (90th) |
| Elo | 1601 (49th) | 1265 (112th) |
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Kansas State's offense ranks 61st in adjusted EPA per play, and the Colorado defense it faces ranks 36th in EPA per play allowed. Colorado's offense ranks 121st against Kansas State's 87th-ranked defense. Both defenses have the edge on the offenses they face. The biggest edge on the board is Kansas State's backs in the open field: 6th in adjusted open-field yards per carry, against Colorado's 31st-ranked defense. Adjust for opponents and Colorado's defense climbs from 56th to 36th in EPA per play allowed: it has done its work against good offenses.
| Kansas State | Colorado | |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play (adjusted) | +0.12 (61st) | +0.02 (121st) |
| EPA per pass (adjusted) | +0.15 (97th) | +0.14 (100th) |
| EPA per rush (adjusted) | +0.10 (43rd) | −0.04 (132nd) |
| Success rate (adjusted) | 43.7% (43rd) | 40.2% (84th) |
| Success rate, standard downs (adjusted) | 47.5% (52nd) | 45.0% (103rd) |
| Success rate, passing downs (adjusted) | 32.5% (26th) | 29.7% (88th) |
| Explosiveness (adjusted) | 0.94 (71st) | 0.90 (129th) |
| Line yards per carry (adjusted) | 2.98 (60th) | 2.85 (104th) |
| Open-field yards per carry (adjusted) | 1.47 (6th) | 0.98 (115th) |
| EPA per play allowed (adjusted) | +0.13 (87th) | +0.05 (36th) |
| EPA per pass allowed (adjusted) | +0.19 (70th) | +0.22 (82nd) |
| EPA per rush allowed (adjusted) | +0.11 (112th) | −0.01 (15th) |
| Success rate allowed (adjusted) | 38.5% (26th) | 37.1% (19th) |
| Explosiveness allowed (adjusted) | 1.00 (137th) | 0.90 (14th) |
| Line yards allowed per carry (adjusted) | 3.02 (88th) | 2.73 (15th) |
| Open-field yards allowed per carry (adjusted) | 1.28 (103rd) | 0.99 (31st) |
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Kansas State is better running (44th in EPA per rush) than throwing (82nd). Colorado's run defense ranks 20th. Colorado is better throwing (82nd in EPA per pass) than running (129th). Kansas State's pass defense ranks 50th, so the defense has the better of it. On third down, Kansas State has the edge: its offense ranks 17th in EPA per third-down play, and the defense it faces ranks 58th.
| Kansas State | Colorado | |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.16 (57th) | +0.02 (118th) |
| EPA per pass | +0.18 (82nd) | +0.18 (82nd) |
| EPA per rush | +0.15 (44th) | −0.10 (129th) |
| EPA per 3rd-down play | +0.66 (17th) | +0.47 (64th) |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.12 (87th) | +0.07 (56th) |
| EPA per pass allowed | +0.12 (50th) | +0.26 (98th) |
| EPA per rush allowed | +0.18 (121st) | −0.06 (20th) |
| EPA per 3rd-down play allowed | +0.41 (75th) | +0.37 (58th) |
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Kansas State outscores FBS opponents by 11.8 a game, and Colorado is outscored by 10.0. Kansas State's offense ranks 42nd in scoring, and the Colorado defense it faces ranks 112th in points allowed. Colorado's offense ranks 120th against Kansas State's 46th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Kansas State's offense against Colorado's defense.
| Kansas State | Colorado | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored | 32.9 (42nd) | 20.1 (120th) |
| Points allowed | 21.1 (46th) | 30.1 (112th) |
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Kansas State's best matchup is third downs: its offense ranks 2nd in 3rd down conversion rate, and Colorado's defense ranks 123rd in 3rd down conversions allowed. That's a mismatch. Colorado has no clear edge here. Its best is explosive play rate, 100th, against a defense ranked 98th in explosive plays allowed.
| Kansas State | Colorado | |
|---|---|---|
| Pass yards / game | 224.7 (75th) | 271.1 (28th) |
| Rush yards / game | 226.4 (14th) | 140.4 (100th) |
| Yards per play | 6.55 (39th) | 5.53 (115th) |
| Yards per carry | 6.31 (8th) | 4.43 (117th) |
| Yards per attempt | 6.99 (94th) | 6.68 (110th) |
| Completion % | 65.8% (49th) | 52.8% (117th) |
| Success rate | 49.0% (20th) | 36.9% (125th) |
| Explosive play rate | 11.2% (96th) | 10.9% (100th) |
| 3rd down conversion | 56.8% (2nd) | 31.8% (123rd) |
| Sack rate (taken) | 2.6% (12th) | 5.0% (59th) |
| INT rate (thrown) | 1.3% (30th) | 3.5% (111th) |
| SUPLEX | 58.5% (47th) | 49.2% (116th) |
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Kansas State's defense is best placed to keep offenses behind schedule: it ranks 10th in success rate allowed, and Colorado's offense is bottom-20 in success rate (125th). That's a mismatch.
| Kansas State | Colorado | |
|---|---|---|
| Pass yards allowed / game | 150.9 (5th) | 255.7 (118th) |
| Rush yards allowed / game | 174.4 (101st) | 149.1 (69th) |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.40 (43rd) | 6.34 (100th) |
| Yards per carry allowed | 5.26 (96th) | 4.52 (48th) |
| Yards per attempt allowed | 6.10 (27th) | 8.95 (120th) |
| Success rate allowed | 34.1% (10th) | 44.1% (93rd) |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.6% (98th) | 14.8% (126th) |
| 3rd downs allowed | 32.0% (21st) | 46.6% (123rd) |
| Sack rate (generated) | 8.9% (16th) | 7.4% (40th) |
| INT rate (generated) | 0.6% (138th) | 2.0% (83rd) |
| SUPLEX allowed | 50.8% (45th) | 58.7% (101st) |
What opponents managed against them.
Kansas State is −0.3 in turnover margin a game and Colorado is −1.3. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 5-point edge for Kansas State. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.
| Kansas State | Colorado | |
|---|---|---|
| Interceptions thrown / game | 0.43 (26th) | 1.43 (131st) |
| Fumbles lost / game | 0.43 (53rd) | 0.86 (116th) |
| Giveaways / game | 0.86 (26th) | 2.29 (133rd) |
| Interceptions / game | 0.14 (136th) | 0.57 (84th) |
| Fumbles recovered / game | 0.43 (68th) | 0.43 (68th) |
| Takeaways / game | 0.57 (126th) | 1.00 (88th) |
| Turnover margin / game | -0.3 (89th) | -1.3 (132nd) |
Per game, from play-by-play.
Colorado has the more talented roster (38th in the 247Sports talent composite; Kansas State is 47th). But Kansas State plays further above its talent: +5.3 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Colorado's −8.6.
| Kansas State | Colorado | |
|---|---|---|
| Talent composite | 718.7 (47th) | 731.6 (38th) |
| Blue-chip ratio | 13.3% (55th) | 31.7% (25th) |
| Players on roster | 109 (82nd) | 105 (106th) |
| Rated by 247Sports | 83 (47th) | 63 (117th) |
| 5-star players | 0 (37th) | 1 (24th) |
| 4-star players | 11 (53rd) | 19 (35th) |
| 3-star players | 70 (28th) | 40 (121st) |
| Below 3-star | 2 (68th) | 3 (53rd) |
| 2026 transfers in | 28 (41st) | 43 (8th) |
| Transfer share | 33.7% (48th) | 68.3% (4th) |
| SP+ vs. talent | +5.3 (36th) | -8.6 (119th) |
| Returning production | 71.4% (21st) | 13.7% (115th) |
| Returning passing production | 100.0% (11th) | -26.1% (130th) |
| Returning rushing production | 60.6% (55th) | -37.1% (131st) |
| Returning receiving production | 57.3% (33rd) | 38.6% (67th) |
| 2026 recruiting class (national rank) | 50 (50th) | 67 (67th) |
| Recruiting rank, last four classes | 43.8 (42nd) | 53.5 (55th) |
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Kansas State's roster is valued at $21.9M, Colorado's at $21.5M. Kansas State also plays better per dollar: +1.7 points of SP+ above what its payroll predicts, to −11.0 for Colorado.
| Kansas State | Colorado | |
|---|---|---|
| Roster value | $21.9M (39th) | $21.5M (41st) |
| Roster cost per win | $5.5M (36th) | $10.7M (67th) |
| Projected wins per $1M | 0.36 (16th) | 0.14 (69th) |
| SP+ vs. payroll | +1.7 (33rd) | -11.0 (65th) |
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
Kansas State is +0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is luck (−1.1). Colorado is −1.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (−1.2). Kansas State's record is 1.1 wins worse than its play on bad luck, so it's better than the record says.
| Kansas State | Colorado | |
|---|---|---|
| BAWA (total) | +0.5 (57th) | -1.5 (115th) |
| Schedule BAWA | +0.6 (65th) | -1.2 (131st) |
| Roster BAWA | +0.5 (38th) | +0.3 (47th) |
| Coach BAWA | +0.6 (45th) | -0.8 (104th) |
| Luck BAWA | -1.1 (126th) | +0.2 (55th) |
Big Al Wins Added: where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Big Al picks Kansas State, 72% to win. All three ratings favor the same team. Kansas State's best matchup is its 3rd down offense, 2nd in 3rd down conversion, against Colorado's 3rd down defense at 123rd.
Sat, Oct 31, 2:00 PM ET at Folsom Field, on TNT.
DraftKings has Kansas State −1.5, total 47.5. Big Al picks winners, not bets.
Colorado leads 45–22–1. Last meeting: Kansas State won 24–14 in 2025.
Kansas State's is Avery Johnson (1,315 passing yards this season); Colorado's is Isaac Wilson (999 passing yards this season).
Kansas State: Jordan Smith (WR) hasn't played since Week 5.
Numbers through the games of Oct 24, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Kansas State and Colorado: team pages with every stat and national rank. Compare any two teams.