College football, 2026 season
Data-driven picks for every FBS game + interactive charts you can customize to support any narrative (except Big 12 supremacy).
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Everything on this site starts with someone else's data, and we credit all of it. The projections, picks, rankings and tiers are our own math on top.
| Source | What we use | How often |
|---|---|---|
| CollegeFootballData.com, via the public cfbfastR files | Schedules, final scores, pregame Elo, play-by-play and box score stats, rosters | Usually posted Sunday or Monday morning after games |
| DraftKings lines (via The Odds API and CollegeFootballData.com) | The line and total on each game, and where each opened | Every morning, and before kickoffs Thursday to Saturday |
| Team logos and colors (ESPN's, via CollegeFootballData.com) | The logos on charts, game cards and team pages. They belong to the schools and are used only to identify the teams. | Preseason |
| SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update) | Overall, offense, defense and special teams ratings | Weekly |
| PRIME (primecfb.com) | Net, offense, defense and special teams ratings, strength of schedule, strength of record | Weekly |
| AP Top 25 (via NCAA.com) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sunday afternoons |
| AFCA Coaches Poll (via Yahoo Sports, CBS Sports, SI) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sundays |
| 247Sports | Team talent composite, star counts, 2026 transfer portal rankings | Preseason |
| The NIL Standard | Estimated NIL roster values | Preseason |
| us-atlas (U.S. Census Bureau boundaries) | State shapes for the map | Once |
Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of the 138 FBS teams.
About
Every stat and term on the site, explained like you're five. Or like you're a grown adult who never asked what EPA means and is now too embarrassed to.
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For where the numbers come from and the exact math, see Sources and methods. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
About
Last updated October 26, 2026.
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Big Al's CFB Lab publishes college football statistics, projections and opinions. Everything here is for information and entertainment. Projections and picks are estimates from public data and can be wrong, sometimes badly.
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Last updated October 26, 2026.
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Projected scores come from SP+ offense, defense and special teams, plus 2.5 points for the home team. Cards also show DraftKings' line and total as facts: we pick winners, not bets. Open Details for the full read, or Head to head for every stat.
"Off by" is how far the final margin landed from the projected margin.
Straight-up picks: did the pick win? Big Al's pick is the team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favor. Big Al and SP+ picks start in Week 8; Elo picks go back to Week 1.
Each column is that week's ranking. Arrows compare the latest poll to the week before. NR means not ranked.
Rankings come from cfbtrack.com. Week 1 is the preseason poll; each later week is the poll released before that week's games.
SP+ vs. payroll is the average, across a conference's teams with an NIL valuation (positive means its teams play better than their payrolls predict). Blue-chip ratio is the share of all its rostered players who were 4- or 5-star recruits.
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The columns on the right show where each team would be seeded under the other ratings. A dash means out.
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Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
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Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Week 9, Fri, Oct 30, 7:30 PM ET, FBC Mortgage Stadium.
Big Al's pick: UCF, 46% to win.
| Kickoff | Fri, Oct 30, 7:30 PM ET |
|---|---|
| TV | ESPN |
| Where | FBC Mortgage Stadium |
| Weather | 75°, clear, wind 9 mph |
| Line | UCF −1.5, total 47.5 |
| Line movement | Total opened 49.5, down 2. |
| Series | Baylor leads 2–1 |
| Last meeting | Baylor 30–3 in 2025 |
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Baylor by 1.5 | 54% | 47 |
| PRIME | UCF by 2.6 | 57% | |
| Elo | Baylor | 62% | |
| The line | UCF −1.5 | 47.5, opened 49.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Wed, Oct 28, 2:21 PM ET.
Big Al's call: UCF. I like to believe they can ride the momentum after the BYU win.
The ratings point different ways and average out to about 50-50, so it's a coin flip. Baylor gets the nod by a hair. Baylor's best matchup is its passing game, 26th in pass yards per game, against UCF's pass defense at 109th. UCF's way back in is its run-stopping front, 13th in line yards allowed per carry, against Baylor's offensive line at 112th. We left out the edges built on Taevion Swint, who's out.
| SP+ offense | SP+ defense | |
|---|---|---|
| Baylor | 28.0 (59th) | 20.0 (29th) |
| UCF | 27.2 (63rd) | 22.8 (43rd) |
| SUPLEX | SUPLEX allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Baylor | 46.3% (125th) | 48.2% (29th) |
| UCF | 57.6% (57th) | 50.0% (41st) |
| Success rate | Explosive play rate | |
|---|---|---|
| Baylor | 37.4% (122nd) | 11.2% (97th) |
| UCF | 45.5% (50th) | 12.7% (56th) |
| Success rate allowed | Explosive plays allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Baylor | 36.6% (27th) | 10.1% (42nd) |
| UCF | 38.4% (47th) | 9.3% (20th) |
| Yards per carry | Yards per attempt | |
|---|---|---|
| Baylor | 4.65 (105th) | 6.36 (113th) |
| UCF | 5.27 (65th) | 8.01 (52nd) |
| 3rd down conversion | 3rd downs allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Baylor | 39.7% (73rd) | 35.3% (45th) |
| UCF | 43.2% (52nd) | 38.6% (69th) |
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Baylor and UCF are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 24, 2026.
| Player | Passing success rate (per dropback) | Passing yards |
|---|---|---|
| D.J. Lagway, Baylor | 35.5% (154th) | 1,362 (80th) |
| Keyone Jenkins, UCF | 41.9% (88th) | 1,123 (101st) |
| Player | Yards per carry | Rushing success rate |
|---|---|---|
| Dawson Pendergrass, Baylor | 3.6 (325th) | 45.2% (144th) |
| Duke Watson, UCF | 6.7 (38th) | 42.5% (193rd) |
| Player | Explosive catches (16+ yards) | Receiving yards |
|---|---|---|
| Gavin Freeman, Baylor | 15 (21st) | 694 (13th) |
| Louis Brown, Baylor | 8 (117th) | 345 (141st) |
| Joshua Derry, UCF | 5 (312th) | 366 (126th) |
| Tyren Hornes, UCF | 7 (181st) | 248 (277th) |
| Player | Sacks | INTs | Fumble recoveries | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrick Ponder, Baylor | 3 | 0 | 1 | 39th |
| Bo Onu, Baylor | 2 | 0 | 1 | 112th |
| Daniel Cobbs, Baylor | 3 | 0 | 0 | 113th |
| Demari Henderson, UCF | 1 | 2 | 0 | 233rd |
| Isaiah Nixon, UCF | 2 | 0 | 1 | 234th |
| Tackett Curtis, UCF | 0 | 2 | 1 | 235th |
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 24, 2026.
On a neutral field, SP+ has Baylor 4.0 points better (43rd to 56th). PRIME has UCF by 0.1 instead. Elo, which only sees results, also has Baylor ahead (45th to 72nd).
| Baylor | UCF | |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ overall | 8.5 (43rd) | 4.5 (56th) |
| SP+ offense | 28.0 (59th) | 27.2 (63rd) |
| SP+ defense | 20.0 (29th) | 22.8 (43rd) |
| SP+ special teams | 0.4 (11th) | 0.1 (54th) |
| PRIME net | 6.2 (40th) | 6.3 (39th) |
| PRIME offense | -1.19 (76th) | 2.17 (45th) |
| PRIME defense | 6.52 (22nd) | 4.43 (34th) |
| PRIME SOS | -0.7 (51st) | 3.0 (16th) |
| PRIME SOR | 0.4 (53rd) | 1.0 (41st) |
| Elo | 1614 (45th) | 1477 (72nd) |
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Baylor's offense ranks 67th in adjusted EPA per play, and the UCF defense it faces ranks 31st in EPA per play allowed. UCF's offense ranks 63rd against Baylor's 18th-ranked defense. Both defenses have the edge on the offenses they face. Adjust for opponents and Baylor's offense climbs from 88th to 67th in EPA per play: it has done its work against good defenses.
| Baylor | UCF | |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play (adjusted) | +0.11 (67th) | +0.11 (63rd) |
| EPA per pass (adjusted) | +0.20 (63rd) | +0.22 (46th) |
| EPA per rush (adjusted) | +0.03 (101st) | +0.03 (104th) |
| Success rate (adjusted) | 38.9% (105th) | 43.0% (52nd) |
| Success rate, standard downs (adjusted) | 43.0% (125th) | 46.1% (78th) |
| Success rate, passing downs (adjusted) | 30.0% (78th) | 32.1% (35th) |
| Explosiveness (adjusted) | 0.94 (51st) | 0.91 (121st) |
| Line yards per carry (adjusted) | 2.81 (112th) | 2.78 (119th) |
| Open-field yards per carry (adjusted) | 1.08 (86th) | 1.15 (61st) |
| EPA per play allowed (adjusted) | +0.03 (18th) | +0.05 (31st) |
| EPA per pass allowed (adjusted) | +0.11 (20th) | +0.17 (56th) |
| EPA per rush allowed (adjusted) | −0.00 (20th) | +0.01 (25th) |
| Success rate allowed (adjusted) | 39.2% (32nd) | 39.8% (39th) |
| Explosiveness allowed (adjusted) | 0.93 (48th) | 0.89 (10th) |
| Line yards allowed per carry (adjusted) | 2.89 (49th) | 2.72 (13th) |
| Open-field yards allowed per carry (adjusted) | 0.96 (20th) | 1.01 (39th) |
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Baylor is better throwing (82nd in EPA per pass) than running (111th). UCF's pass defense ranks 66th. UCF is about as good throwing (87th in EPA per pass) as running (101st).
| Baylor | UCF | |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.09 (88th) | +0.10 (83rd) |
| EPA per pass | +0.18 (82nd) | +0.17 (87th) |
| EPA per rush | +0.01 (111th) | +0.03 (101st) |
| EPA per 3rd-down play | +0.42 (85th) | +0.40 (89th) |
| EPA per play allowed | −0.06 (9th) | +0.03 (36th) |
| EPA per pass allowed | +0.01 (15th) | +0.16 (66th) |
| EPA per rush allowed | −0.12 (10th) | −0.06 (20th) |
| EPA per 3rd-down play allowed | +0.28 (34th) | +0.31 (43rd) |
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Baylor outscores FBS opponents by 13.0 a game, and UCF by 9.7. Baylor's offense ranks 66th in scoring, and the UCF defense it faces ranks 58th in points allowed. UCF's offense ranks 45th against Baylor's 19th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge.
| Baylor | UCF | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored | 29.1 (66th) | 32.7 (45th) |
| Points allowed | 16.1 (19th) | 23.0 (58th) |
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Baylor has no clear edge here. Its best is 3rd down conversion rate, 73rd, against a defense ranked 69th in 3rd down conversions allowed. UCF has no clear edge here. Its best is 3rd down conversion rate, 52nd, against a defense ranked 45th in 3rd down conversions allowed.
| Baylor | UCF | |
|---|---|---|
| Pass yards / game | 275.1 (26th) | 209.4 (91st) |
| Rush yards / game | 164.7 (71st) | 164.9 (70th) |
| Yards per play | 5.45 (119th) | 6.37 (52nd) |
| Yards per carry | 4.65 (105th) | 5.27 (65th) |
| Yards per attempt | 6.36 (113th) | 8.01 (52nd) |
| Completion % | 52.5% (119th) | 76.5% (7th) |
| Success rate | 37.4% (122nd) | 45.5% (50th) |
| Explosive play rate | 11.2% (97th) | 12.7% (56th) |
| 3rd down conversion | 39.7% (73rd) | 43.2% (52nd) |
| Sack rate (taken) | 4.4% (43rd) | 4.7% (47th) |
| INT rate (thrown) | 2.3% (69th) | 2.2% (62nd) |
| SUPLEX | 46.3% (125th) | 57.6% (57th) |
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Baylor's defense is best placed to stop the run: it ranks 23rd in yards per carry allowed, and UCF's offense is middle of the pack in yards per carry (65th). UCF's defense is best placed to stop the run: it ranks 10th in yards per carry allowed, and Baylor's offense is bottom-40 in yards per carry (105th). That's a mismatch.
| Baylor | UCF | |
|---|---|---|
| Pass yards allowed / game | 238.0 (107th) | 241.6 (109th) |
| Rush yards allowed / game | 127.4 (36th) | 129.3 (38th) |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.26 (32nd) | 5.11 (22nd) |
| Yards per carry allowed | 4.09 (23rd) | 3.83 (10th) |
| Yards per attempt allowed | 6.94 (62nd) | 6.50 (44th) |
| Success rate allowed | 36.6% (27th) | 38.4% (47th) |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.1% (42nd) | 9.3% (20th) |
| 3rd downs allowed | 35.3% (45th) | 38.6% (69th) |
| Sack rate (generated) | 10.4% (7th) | 4.4% (108th) |
| INT rate (generated) | 3.3% (34th) | 2.7% (61st) |
| SUPLEX allowed | 48.2% (29th) | 50.0% (41st) |
What opponents managed against them.
UCF is +0.7 in turnover margin a game and Baylor is +0.3. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 2-point edge for UCF. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it. Fumble recoveries are mostly luck, and UCF's takeaways lean on them (0.7 of 1.7 a game).
| Baylor | UCF | |
|---|---|---|
| Interceptions thrown / game | 1.00 (105th) | 0.57 (40th) |
| Fumbles lost / game | 0.57 (76th) | 0.43 (53rd) |
| Giveaways / game | 1.57 (107th) | 1.00 (37th) |
| Interceptions / game | 1.14 (14th) | 1.00 (22nd) |
| Fumbles recovered / game | 0.71 (22nd) | 0.71 (22nd) |
| Takeaways / game | 1.86 (11th) | 1.71 (16th) |
| Turnover margin / game | +0.3 (50th) | +0.7 (18th) |
Per game, from play-by-play.
Baylor has the more talented roster (43rd in the 247Sports talent composite; UCF is 66th). Baylor also plays further above its talent: +4.7 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to UCF's +3.9.
| Baylor | UCF | |
|---|---|---|
| Talent composite | 723.3 (43rd) | 672.1 (66th) |
| Blue-chip ratio | 22.0% (36th) | 21.3% (38th) |
| Players on roster | 111 (67th) | 108 (87th) |
| Rated by 247Sports | 82 (52nd) | 61 (118th) |
| 5-star players | 1 (24th) | 0 (37th) |
| 4-star players | 17 (38th) | 13 (46th) |
| 3-star players | 63 (61st) | 47 (110th) |
| Below 3-star | 1 (86th) | 1 (86th) |
| 2026 transfers in | 30 (31st) | 32 (24th) |
| Transfer share | 36.6% (40th) | 52.5% (17th) |
| SP+ vs. talent | +4.7 (40th) | +3.9 (46th) |
| Returning production | 60.2% (40th) | 24.8% (92nd) |
| Returning passing production | 77.7% (55th) | 3.9% (97th) |
| Returning rushing production | 67.7% (51st) | -16.8% (127th) |
| Returning receiving production | 46.9% (53rd) | 58.0% (31st) |
| 2026 recruiting class (national rank) | 57 (57th) | 66 (66th) |
| Recruiting rank, last four classes | 48.8 (47th) | 57.5 (58th) |
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Baylor's roster is valued at $19.8M, UCF's at $18.7M. Baylor also plays better per dollar: +3.5 points of SP+ above what its payroll predicts, to +0.8 for UCF.
| Baylor | UCF | |
|---|---|---|
| Roster value | $19.8M (56th) | $18.7M (63rd) |
| Roster cost per win | $5.0M (27th) | $4.7M (24th) |
| Projected wins per $1M | 0.36 (14th) | 0.34 (22nd) |
| SP+ vs. payroll | +3.5 (20th) | +0.8 (36th) |
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
Baylor is +0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is luck (−1.0). UCF is +0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (−0.7). Baylor's record is 1.0 wins worse than its play on bad luck, so it's better than the record says.
| Baylor | UCF | |
|---|---|---|
| BAWA (total) | +0.5 (57th) | +0.5 (57th) |
| Schedule BAWA | +0.3 (78th) | -0.7 (121st) |
| Roster BAWA | +0.6 (34th) | +0.0 (66th) |
| Coach BAWA | +0.7 (39th) | +0.5 (50th) |
| Luck BAWA | -1.0 (120th) | +0.7 (29th) |
Big Al Wins Added: where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
The ratings call it a coin flip, and Big Al takes UCF. I like to believe they can ride the momentum after the BYU win.
Fri, Oct 30, 7:30 PM ET at FBC Mortgage Stadium, on ESPN.
DraftKings has UCF −1.5, total 47.5. Big Al picks winners, not bets.
Baylor leads 2–1. Last meeting: Baylor won 30–3 in 2025.
Baylor's is D.J. Lagway (1,362 passing yards this season); UCF's is Keyone Jenkins (1,123 passing yards this season).
Numbers through the games of Oct 24, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Baylor and UCF: team pages with every stat and national rank. Compare any two teams.