College football, 2026 season
Data-driven picks for every FBS game + interactive charts you can customize to support any narrative (except Big 12 supremacy).
Picks and projected scores for every FBS game this week.
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Up to 10 legs, one per game: a moneyline, a side against the spread or an over/under. Lines and prices are DraftKings'. When we don't have DraftKings' price on a spread or total, it shows the standard −110. Each leg shows our call on it, from our number (SP+ and PRIME): a Lock, Take or Lean on the side we like, Other side when we'd bet the opposite. Random parlay grabs 3 to 6 games from the list and picks a leg in each, no thinking involved. It's for fun. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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About
Everything on this site starts with someone else's data, and we credit all of it. The projections, picks, rankings and tiers are our own math on top.
| Source | What we use | How often |
|---|---|---|
| CollegeFootballData.com, via the public cfbfastR files | Schedules, final scores, pregame Elo, play-by-play and box score stats, rosters | Usually posted Sunday or Monday morning after games |
| DraftKings lines (via The Odds API and CollegeFootballData.com) | The line and total on each game, and where each opened | Every morning, and before kickoffs Thursday to Saturday |
| Team logos and colors (ESPN's, via CollegeFootballData.com) | The logos on charts, game cards and team pages. They belong to the schools and are used only to identify the teams. | Preseason |
| SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update) | Overall, offense, defense and special teams ratings | Weekly |
| PRIME (primecfb.com) | Net, offense, defense and special teams ratings, strength of schedule, strength of record | Weekly |
| AP Top 25 (via NCAA.com) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sunday afternoons |
| AFCA Coaches Poll (via Yahoo Sports, CBS Sports, SI) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sundays |
| 247Sports | Team talent composite, star counts, 2026 transfer portal rankings | Preseason |
| The NIL Standard | Estimated NIL roster values | Preseason |
| us-atlas (U.S. Census Bureau boundaries) | State shapes for the map | Once |
Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of the 138 FBS teams.
About
Every stat and term on the site, explained like you're five. Or like you're a grown adult who never asked what EPA means and is now too embarrassed to.
The words on the betting side of the site, explained like you've never placed a bet. Good for you.
What the numbers on team pages, charts and head to head mean.
How Big Al's picks, tiers and projections work. The full method is on Sources and methods.
Who's who and how the 12-team field works.
Nothing matches that. Try a shorter word.
For where the numbers come from and the exact math, see Sources and methods. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
About
Last updated October 26, 2026.
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Big Al's CFB Lab publishes college football statistics, projections and opinions. Everything here is for information and entertainment. Projections and picks are estimates from public data and can be wrong, sometimes badly.
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Last updated October 26, 2026.
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Projected scores come from SP+ offense, defense and special teams, plus 2.5 points for the home team. Cards also show DraftKings' line and total as facts: we pick winners, not bets. Open Details for the full read, or Head to head for every stat.
Final scores against what we said before kickoff. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favored, unless he made the call himself on a toss-up or one of the week's biggest games. Ranked means in that week's AP poll. Open a game for the full preview as it stood going into the week.
Straight-up picks: did the pick win? Big Al's pick is the team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favor. Big Al and SP+ picks start in Week 8; Elo picks go back to Week 1.
Each column is that week's ranking. Arrows compare the latest poll to the week before. NR means not ranked.
Rankings come from cfbtrack.com. Week 1 is the preseason poll; each later week is the poll released before that week's games.
SP+ vs. payroll is the average, across a conference's teams with an NIL valuation (positive means its teams play better than their payrolls predict). Blue-chip ratio is the share of all its rostered players who were 4- or 5-star recruits.
Ranks are national, out of 138 FBS teams. A top-10 team also counts toward the top 25 and top 40, and everyone outside the last cutoff counts as weak. Open a conference to see its teams.
Seeds 1–4 get first-round byes. Seeds 5–8 host the first round.
The columns on the right show where each team would be seeded under the other ratings. A dash means out.
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor. On the toss-ups and the biggest games, Big Al makes the call himself and says why.
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
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Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Purdue at Penn State
Week 9, Sat, Oct 31, 4:15 PM ET, Beaver Stadium.
Big Al's pick: Penn State, 78% to win.
| Kickoff | Sat, Oct 31, 4:15 PM ET |
|---|---|
| TV | BTN |
| Where | Beaver Stadium |
| Weather | 58°, fair, wind 5 mph |
| Line | Penn State −7.5, total 54.5 |
| Line movement | Opened Penn State −8.5; moved 1 point toward Purdue. Total opened 52.5, up 2. |
| Series | Penn State leads 17–3–1 |
| Last meeting | Penn State 49–10 in 2024 |
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Penn State by 11.6 | 80% | 58 |
| PRIME | Penn State by 6.1 | 67% | |
| Elo | Penn State | 92% | |
| The line | Penn State −7.5, opened −8.5 | 54.5, opened 52.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Wed, Oct 28, 2:21 PM ET.
Big Al's pick: Penn State. 80% to win
All three ratings favor Penn State, by 6.1 to 11.6 points. Penn State's best matchup is its passing game, 22nd in EPA per pass, against Purdue's pass defense at 132nd. Purdue's way back in is its early-down offense, 25th in SUPLEX, against Penn State's early-down defense at 87th.
| SP+ offense | SP+ defense | |
|---|---|---|
| Purdue | 30.0 (46th) | 30.4 (101st) |
| Penn State | 28.9 (53rd) | 19.8 (27th) |
| SUPLEX | SUPLEX allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Purdue | 62.2% (25th) | 63.5% (128th) |
| Penn State | 49.6% (112th) | 56.6% (87th) |
| Success rate | Explosive play rate | |
|---|---|---|
| Purdue | 45.8% (45th) | 12.7% (53rd) |
| Penn State | 42.0% (86th) | 10.3% (114th) |
| Success rate allowed | Explosive plays allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Purdue | 46.0% (110th) | 18.2% (137th) |
| Penn State | 39.6% (53rd) | 12.6% (99th) |
| Yards per carry | Yards per attempt | |
|---|---|---|
| Purdue | 4.30 (120th) | 8.60 (33rd) |
| Penn State | 3.98 (130th) | 8.21 (44th) |
| 3rd down conversion | 3rd downs allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Purdue | 44.8% (41st) | 45.7% (117th) |
| Penn State | 37.2% (88th) | 27.9% (9th) |
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Purdue and Penn State are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 24, 2026.
| Player | Passing success rate (per dropback) | Passing yards |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Browne, Purdue | 47.6% (33rd) | 1,834 (20th) |
| Rocco Becht, Penn State | 44.1% (69th) | 1,664 (28th) |
| Player | Yards per carry | Rushing success rate |
|---|---|---|
| Fame Ijeboi, Purdue | 4.3 (253rd) | 42.1% (204th) |
| Carson Hansen, Penn State | 3.9 (294th) | 41.4% (211th) |
| Player | Explosive catches (16+ yards) | Receiving yards |
|---|---|---|
| Asaad Waseem, Purdue | 14 (28th) | 588 (30th) |
| Xavier Townsend, Purdue | 6 (232nd) | 374 (120th) |
| Chase Sowell, Penn State | 13 (37th) | 513 (46th) |
| Koby Howard, Penn State | 8 (136th) | 344 (143rd) |
| Player | Sacks | INTs | Fumble recoveries | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Rojas, Penn State | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10th |
| Josiah Zayas, Penn State | 0 | 2 | 1 | 202nd |
| Donovan Saunders, Purdue | 0 | 1 | 1 | 484th |
| John Slaughter, Purdue | 0 | 1 | 1 | 485th |
| Jojo Hayden, Purdue | 0 | 2 | 0 | 486th |
| Bryson Williams, Penn State | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1234th |
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 24, 2026.
On a neutral field, SP+ has Penn State 9.1 points better (36th to 69th). PRIME also has Penn State ahead, by 3.6. Elo, which only sees results, also has Penn State ahead (16th to 86th).
| Purdue | Penn State | |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ overall | 0.2 (69th) | 9.3 (36th) |
| SP+ offense | 30.0 (46th) | 28.9 (53rd) |
| SP+ defense | 30.4 (101st) | 19.8 (27th) |
| SP+ special teams | 0.5 (4th) | 0.2 (42nd) |
| PRIME net | 0.6 (65th) | 4.2 (49th) |
| PRIME offense | 6.74 (28th) | -1.45 (77th) |
| PRIME defense | -6.62 (120th) | 4.71 (30th) |
| PRIME SOS | 4.0 (10th) | 2.3 (23rd) |
| PRIME SOR | 0.2 (62nd) | -0.1 (73rd) |
| Elo | 1423 (86th) | 1800 (16th) |
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Purdue's offense ranks 30th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Penn State defense it faces ranks 38th in EPA per play allowed. Penn State's offense ranks 56th against Purdue's 120th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Penn State's offense against Purdue's defense. The biggest edge on the board is Penn State's passing game: 22nd in adjusted EPA per pass, against Purdue's 132nd-ranked defense. That's a mismatch. Adjust for opponents and Penn State's defense climbs from 73rd to 38th in EPA per play allowed: it has done its work against good offenses.
| Purdue | Penn State | |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play (adjusted) | +0.17 (30th) | +0.12 (56th) |
| EPA per pass (adjusted) | +0.26 (26th) | +0.28 (22nd) |
| EPA per rush (adjusted) | +0.07 (61st) | +0.03 (110th) |
| Success rate (adjusted) | 43.8% (41st) | 41.3% (76th) |
| Success rate, standard downs (adjusted) | 47.0% (62nd) | 45.7% (88th) |
| Success rate, passing downs (adjusted) | 33.4% (18th) | 30.3% (73rd) |
| Explosiveness (adjusted) | 0.96 (30th) | 0.91 (109th) |
| Line yards per carry (adjusted) | 2.79 (118th) | 2.81 (114th) |
| Open-field yards per carry (adjusted) | 1.13 (72nd) | 0.97 (118th) |
| EPA per play allowed (adjusted) | +0.19 (120th) | +0.06 (38th) |
| EPA per pass allowed (adjusted) | +0.32 (132nd) | +0.09 (12th) |
| EPA per rush allowed (adjusted) | +0.12 (113th) | +0.11 (109th) |
| Success rate allowed (adjusted) | 45.4% (112th) | 38.9% (29th) |
| Explosiveness allowed (adjusted) | 0.95 (94th) | 0.99 (135th) |
| Line yards allowed per carry (adjusted) | 3.07 (105th) | 2.90 (51st) |
| Open-field yards allowed per carry (adjusted) | 1.34 (119th) | 1.32 (116th) |
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Purdue is better throwing (24th in EPA per pass) than running (81st). Penn State's pass defense ranks 12th, so that's strength on strength. Penn State is better throwing (34th in EPA per pass) than running (124th). Purdue's pass defense ranks 133rd, so that's a mismatch. On third down, Penn State has the edge: its offense ranks 101st in EPA per third-down play, and the defense it faces ranks 136th.
| Purdue | Penn State | |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.22 (31st) | +0.12 (76th) |
| EPA per pass | +0.39 (24th) | +0.35 (34th) |
| EPA per rush | +0.08 (81st) | −0.04 (124th) |
| EPA per 3rd-down play | +0.56 (41st) | +0.33 (101st) |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.26 (130th) | +0.10 (73rd) |
| EPA per pass allowed | +0.43 (133rd) | −0.01 (12th) |
| EPA per rush allowed | +0.20 (127th) | +0.25 (131st) |
| EPA per 3rd-down play allowed | +0.87 (136th) | +0.32 (47th) |
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Purdue is outscored by 1.0 a game, and Penn State by 9.8. Purdue's offense ranks 53rd in scoring, and the Penn State defense it faces ranks 27th in points allowed. Penn State's offense ranks 68th against Purdue's 122nd-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Penn State's offense against Purdue's defense.
| Purdue | Penn State | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored | 31.3 (53rd) | 28.7 (68th) |
| Points allowed | 32.3 (122nd) | 18.9 (27th) |
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Purdue's best matchup is early downs: its offense ranks 25th in SUPLEX, and Penn State's defense ranks 87th in SUPLEX allowed. That's a mismatch. Penn State's best matchup is third downs: its offense ranks 88th in 3rd down conversion rate, and Purdue's defense ranks 117th in 3rd down conversions allowed.
| Purdue | Penn State | |
|---|---|---|
| Pass yards / game | 282.4 (22nd) | 256.7 (41st) |
| Rush yards / game | 134.0 (109th) | 129.0 (116th) |
| Yards per play | 6.30 (57th) | 5.91 (89th) |
| Yards per carry | 4.30 (120th) | 3.98 (130th) |
| Yards per attempt | 8.60 (33rd) | 8.21 (44th) |
| Completion % | 68.3% (39th) | 65.8% (51st) |
| Success rate | 45.8% (45th) | 42.0% (86th) |
| Explosive play rate | 12.7% (53rd) | 10.3% (114th) |
| 3rd down conversion | 44.8% (41st) | 37.2% (88th) |
| Sack rate (taken) | 6.1% (85th) | 4.8% (52nd) |
| INT rate (thrown) | 1.3% (28th) | 2.3% (65th) |
| SUPLEX | 62.2% (25th) | 49.6% (112th) |
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Penn State's defense is best placed to get off the field on third down: it ranks 9th in 3rd down conversions allowed, and Purdue's offense is above average in 3rd down conversion rate (41st).
| Purdue | Penn State | |
|---|---|---|
| Pass yards allowed / game | 256.4 (119th) | 125.1 (1st) |
| Rush yards allowed / game | 163.9 (92nd) | 160.7 (82nd) |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.87 (118th) | 5.62 (59th) |
| Yards per carry allowed | 5.65 (115th) | 5.98 (128th) |
| Yards per attempt allowed | 8.27 (100th) | 5.47 (9th) |
| Success rate allowed | 46.0% (110th) | 39.6% (53rd) |
| Explosive plays allowed | 18.2% (137th) | 12.6% (99th) |
| 3rd downs allowed | 45.7% (117th) | 27.9% (9th) |
| Sack rate (generated) | 3.6% (125th) | 4.8% (104th) |
| INT rate (generated) | 3.2% (41st) | 4.4% (13th) |
| SUPLEX allowed | 63.5% (128th) | 56.6% (87th) |
What opponents managed against them.
Neither team has a real turnover edge: Purdue is +0.6 a game and Penn State +0.6.
| Purdue | Penn State | |
|---|---|---|
| Interceptions thrown / game | 0.43 (26th) | 0.71 (59th) |
| Fumbles lost / game | 0.43 (53rd) | 0.29 (20th) |
| Giveaways / game | 0.86 (26th) | 1.00 (37th) |
| Interceptions / game | 1.00 (22nd) | 1.00 (22nd) |
| Fumbles recovered / game | 0.43 (68th) | 0.57 (49th) |
| Takeaways / game | 1.43 (39th) | 1.57 (27th) |
| Turnover margin / game | +0.6 (26th) | +0.6 (27th) |
Per game, from play-by-play.
Penn State has the more talented roster (26th in the 247Sports talent composite; Purdue is 55th). Penn State also plays further above its talent: +2.3 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Purdue's −2.0.
| Purdue | Penn State | |
|---|---|---|
| Talent composite | 698.3 (55th) | 774.0 (26th) |
| Blue-chip ratio | 14.0% (53rd) | 37.0% (19th) |
| Players on roster | 119 (20th) | 112 (58th) |
| Rated by 247Sports | 86 (36th) | 81 (56th) |
| 5-star players | 0 (37th) | 0 (37th) |
| 4-star players | 12 (51st) | 30 (21st) |
| 3-star players | 71 (23rd) | 50 (106th) |
| Below 3-star | 3 (53rd) | 1 (86th) |
| 2026 transfers in | 29 (34th) | 39 (14th) |
| Transfer share | 33.7% (49th) | 48.1% (21st) |
| SP+ vs. talent | -2.0 (78th) | +2.3 (53rd) |
| Returning production | 47.5% (57th) | 7.6% (123rd) |
| Returning passing production | 97.0% (26th) | 3.3% (100th) |
| Returning rushing production | 60.6% (55th) | -1.6% (119th) |
| Returning receiving production | 21.6% (98th) | 14.5% (114th) |
| 2026 recruiting class (national rank) | 55 (55th) | 65 (65th) |
| Recruiting rank, last four classes | 62.8 (66th) | 27.2 (22nd) |
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Penn State's roster is valued at $27.8M, Purdue's at $17.8M. Dollar for dollar, Purdue plays better: −2.4 points of SP+ above what its payroll predicts, to −3.1 for Penn State.
| Purdue | Penn State | |
|---|---|---|
| Roster value | $17.8M (67th) | $27.8M (17th) |
| Roster cost per win | $5.9M (44th) | $9.3M (63rd) |
| Projected wins per $1M | 0.21 (56th) | 0.29 (34th) |
| SP+ vs. payroll | -2.4 (44th) | -3.1 (48th) |
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
Purdue is −0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (−1.0). Penn State is −0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is luck (−1.4). Penn State's record is 1.4 wins worse than its play on bad luck, so it's better than the record says.
| Purdue | Penn State | |
|---|---|---|
| BAWA (total) | -0.5 (89th) | -0.5 (89th) |
| Schedule BAWA | -1.0 (129th) | -0.3 (101st) |
| Roster BAWA | +0.3 (55th) | +0.6 (32nd) |
| Coach BAWA | -0.3 (84th) | +0.6 (43rd) |
| Luck BAWA | +0.6 (35th) | -1.4 (132nd) |
Big Al Wins Added: where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Big Al picks Penn State, 80% to win. All three ratings favor the same team. Penn State's best matchup is its passing game, 22nd in EPA per pass, against Purdue's pass defense at 132nd.
Sat, Oct 31, 4:15 PM ET at Beaver Stadium, on BTN.
DraftKings has Penn State −7.5, total 54.5. Big Al picks winners, not bets.
Penn State leads 17–3–1. Last meeting: Penn State won 49–10 in 2024.
Purdue's is Ryan Browne (1,834 passing yards this season); Penn State's is Rocco Becht (1,664 passing yards this season).
Numbers through the games of Oct 24, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Purdue and Penn State: team pages with every stat and national rank. Compare any two teams.