College football, 2026 season
Data-driven picks for every FBS game + interactive charts you can customize to support any narrative (except Big 12 supremacy).
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About
Everything on this site starts with someone else's data, and we credit all of it. The projections, picks, rankings and tiers are our own math on top.
| Source | What we use | How often |
|---|---|---|
| CollegeFootballData.com, via the public cfbfastR files | Schedules, final scores, pregame Elo, play-by-play and box score stats, rosters | Usually posted Sunday or Monday morning after games |
| DraftKings lines (via The Odds API and CollegeFootballData.com) | The line and total on each game, and where each opened | Every morning, and before kickoffs Thursday to Saturday |
| Team logos and colors (ESPN's, via CollegeFootballData.com) | The logos on charts, game cards and team pages. They belong to the schools and are used only to identify the teams. | Preseason |
| SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update) | Overall, offense, defense and special teams ratings | Weekly |
| PRIME (primecfb.com) | Net, offense, defense and special teams ratings, strength of schedule, strength of record | Weekly |
| AP Top 25 (via NCAA.com) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sunday afternoons |
| AFCA Coaches Poll (via Yahoo Sports, CBS Sports, SI) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sundays |
| 247Sports | Team talent composite, star counts, 2026 transfer portal rankings | Preseason |
| The NIL Standard | Estimated NIL roster values | Preseason |
| us-atlas (U.S. Census Bureau boundaries) | State shapes for the map | Once |
Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of the 138 FBS teams.
About
Every stat and term on the site, explained like you're five. Or like you're a grown adult who never asked what EPA means and is now too embarrassed to.
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What the numbers on team pages, charts and head to head mean.
How Big Al's picks, tiers and projections work. The full method is on Sources and methods.
Who's who and how the 12-team field works.
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For where the numbers come from and the exact math, see Sources and methods. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
About
Last updated October 26, 2026.
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Big Al's CFB Lab publishes college football statistics, projections and opinions. Everything here is for information and entertainment. Projections and picks are estimates from public data and can be wrong, sometimes badly.
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About
Last updated October 26, 2026.
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Projected scores come from SP+ offense, defense and special teams, plus 2.5 points for the home team. Cards also show DraftKings' line and total as facts: we pick winners, not bets. Open Details for the full read, or Head to head for every stat.
"Off by" is how far the final margin landed from the projected margin.
Straight-up picks: did the pick win? Big Al's pick is the team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favor. Big Al and SP+ picks start in Week 8; Elo picks go back to Week 1.
Each column is that week's ranking. Arrows compare the latest poll to the week before. NR means not ranked.
Rankings come from cfbtrack.com. Week 1 is the preseason poll; each later week is the poll released before that week's games.
SP+ vs. payroll is the average, across a conference's teams with an NIL valuation (positive means its teams play better than their payrolls predict). Blue-chip ratio is the share of all its rostered players who were 4- or 5-star recruits.
Ranks are national, out of 138 FBS teams. A top-10 team also counts toward the top 25 and top 40, and everyone outside the last cutoff counts as weak. Open a conference to see its teams.
Seeds 1–4 get first-round byes. Seeds 5–8 host the first round.
The columns on the right show where each team would be seeded under the other ratings. A dash means out.
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
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Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Week 9, Sat, Oct 31, 12:30 PM ET, SHI Stadium.
Big Al's pick: Michigan, 87% to win.
| Kickoff | Sat, Oct 31, 12:30 PM ET |
|---|---|
| TV | BTN |
| Where | SHI Stadium |
| Weather | 61°, fair, wind 8 mph |
| Line | Michigan −14, total 46.5 |
| Line movement | Total opened 47.5, down 1. |
| Series | Michigan leads 9–1 |
| Last meeting | Michigan 31–7 in 2023 |
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Michigan by 13.9 | 84% | 48 |
| PRIME | Michigan by 18.5 | 91% | |
| Elo | Michigan | 87% | |
| The line | Michigan −14 | 46.5, opened 47.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Wed, Oct 28, 2:21 PM ET.
Big Al's pick: Michigan. 87% to win
All three ratings favor Michigan, by 13.9 to 18.5 points, and it isn't close. Michigan's best matchup is its takeaway defense, 19th in interceptions per pass, against Rutgers' ball security at 134th. Rutgers' way back in is its takeaway defense, 75th in interceptions per pass, against Michigan's ball security at 122nd.
| SP+ offense | SP+ defense | |
|---|---|---|
| Michigan | 24.4 (86th) | 12.7 (3rd) |
| Rutgers | 28.7 (54th) | 34.0 (124th) |
| SUPLEX | SUPLEX allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Michigan | 49.3% (115th) | 43.9% (14th) |
| Rutgers | 61.5% (28th) | 64.2% (131st) |
| Success rate | Explosive play rate | |
|---|---|---|
| Michigan | 39.9% (107th) | 10.5% (108th) |
| Rutgers | 47.4% (30th) | 12.6% (57th) |
| Success rate allowed | Explosive plays allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Michigan | 35.2% (16th) | 7.3% (8th) |
| Rutgers | 45.4% (106th) | 15.5% (132nd) |
| Yards per carry | Yards per attempt | |
|---|---|---|
| Michigan | 4.39 (118th) | 6.71 (109th) |
| Rutgers | 5.05 (75th) | 9.31 (17th) |
| 3rd down conversion | 3rd downs allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Michigan | 39.1% (76th) | 32.3% (23rd) |
| Rutgers | 46.3% (30th) | 38.6% (72nd) |
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Michigan and Rutgers are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 24, 2026.
| Player | Passing success rate (per dropback) | Passing yards |
|---|---|---|
| Bryce Underwood, Michigan | 44.0% (71st) | 936 (113th) |
| AJ Surace, Rutgers | 40.7% (105th) | 539 (144th) |
| Player | Yards per carry | Rushing success rate |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Marshall, Michigan | 4.0 (289th) | 43.0% (182nd) |
| Antwan Raymond, Rutgers | 5.3 (136th) | 43.9% (168th) |
| Player | Explosive catches (16+ yards) | Receiving yards |
|---|---|---|
| JJ Buchanan, Michigan | 16 (18th) | 539 (41st) |
| Andrew Marsh, Michigan | 4 (369th) | 319 (170th) |
| Ben Black, Rutgers | 6 (234th) | 195 (368th) |
| Jourdin Houston, Rutgers | 3 (484th) | 184 (392nd) |
| Player | Sacks | INTs | Fumble recoveries | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Henry Daley, Michigan | 3 | 0 | 0 | 175th |
| Moses Walker, Rutgers | 1 | 2 | 0 | 205th |
| Smith Snowden, Michigan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 413th |
| Bradlee Jones, Rutgers | 0 | 2 | 0 | 489th |
| Rondarius Porter, Rutgers | 2 | 0 | 0 | 490th |
| Chris Bracy, Michigan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1030th |
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 24, 2026.
On a neutral field, SP+ has Michigan 16.4 points better (27th to 95th). PRIME also has Michigan ahead, by 21.0. Elo, which only sees results, also has Michigan ahead (25th to 100th).
| Michigan | Rutgers | |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ overall | 11.5 (27th) | -4.9 (95th) |
| SP+ offense | 24.4 (86th) | 28.7 (54th) |
| SP+ defense | 12.7 (3rd) | 34.0 (124th) |
| SP+ special teams | -0.2 (92nd) | 0.3 (28th) |
| PRIME net | 9.6 (31st) | -11.4 (113th) |
| PRIME offense | -0.48 (67th) | -2.87 (90th) |
| PRIME defense | 9.48 (10th) | -7.85 (127th) |
| PRIME SOS | 0.8 (38th) | 1.6 (32nd) |
| PRIME SOR | 0.6 (52nd) | -1.2 (101st) |
| Elo | 1734 (25th) | 1354 (100th) |
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Michigan's offense ranks 86th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Rutgers defense it faces ranks 126th in EPA per play allowed. Rutgers' offense ranks 82nd against Michigan's 13th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Michigan's offense against Rutgers' defense. The biggest edge on the board is Michigan's efficiency: 64th in adjusted success rate, against Rutgers' 117th-ranked defense. Adjust for opponents and Michigan's offense climbs from 107th to 86th in EPA per play: it has done its work against good defenses.
| Michigan | Rutgers | |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play (adjusted) | +0.07 (86th) | +0.08 (82nd) |
| EPA per pass (adjusted) | +0.15 (96th) | +0.20 (59th) |
| EPA per rush (adjusted) | +0.05 (81st) | +0.03 (105th) |
| Success rate (adjusted) | 41.6% (64th) | 41.9% (61st) |
| Success rate, standard downs (adjusted) | 44.4% (113th) | 45.0% (102nd) |
| Success rate, passing downs (adjusted) | 32.8% (24th) | 33.6% (15th) |
| Explosiveness (adjusted) | 0.93 (92nd) | 0.93 (88th) |
| Line yards per carry (adjusted) | 2.95 (69th) | 2.90 (89th) |
| Open-field yards per carry (adjusted) | 0.95 (123rd) | 1.17 (57th) |
| EPA per play allowed (adjusted) | −0.00 (13th) | +0.21 (126th) |
| EPA per pass allowed (adjusted) | +0.08 (9th) | +0.28 (120th) |
| EPA per rush allowed (adjusted) | −0.01 (14th) | +0.16 (132nd) |
| Success rate allowed (adjusted) | 37.8% (20th) | 46.0% (117th) |
| Explosiveness allowed (adjusted) | 0.90 (13th) | 0.97 (122nd) |
| Line yards allowed per carry (adjusted) | 2.84 (32nd) | 3.12 (116th) |
| Open-field yards allowed per carry (adjusted) | 0.82 (4th) | 1.47 (133rd) |
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Michigan is better running (89th in EPA per rush) than throwing (106th). Rutgers' run defense ranks 133rd, so that's an edge. Rutgers is better throwing (58th in EPA per pass) than running (89th). Michigan's pass defense ranks 8th, so the defense has the better of it.
| Michigan | Rutgers | |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.05 (107th) | +0.11 (79th) |
| EPA per pass | +0.10 (106th) | +0.25 (58th) |
| EPA per rush | +0.05 (89th) | +0.05 (89th) |
| EPA per 3rd-down play | +0.30 (108th) | +0.43 (81st) |
| EPA per play allowed | −0.10 (5th) | +0.29 (135th) |
| EPA per pass allowed | −0.04 (8th) | +0.37 (123rd) |
| EPA per rush allowed | −0.13 (7th) | +0.28 (133rd) |
| EPA per 3rd-down play allowed | −0.03 (2nd) | +0.53 (110th) |
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Michigan outscores FBS opponents by 4.6 a game, and Rutgers is outscored by 4.6. Michigan's offense ranks 118th in scoring, and the Rutgers defense it faces ranks 127th in points allowed. Rutgers' offense ranks 68th against Michigan's 15th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge.
| Michigan | Rutgers | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored | 20.3 (118th) | 28.7 (68th) |
| Points allowed | 15.7 (15th) | 33.3 (127th) |
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Michigan has no clear edge here. Its best is explosive play rate, 108th, against a defense ranked 132nd in explosive plays allowed. Rutgers has no clear edge here. Its best is 3rd down conversion rate, 30th, against a defense ranked 23rd in 3rd down conversions allowed.
| Michigan | Rutgers | |
|---|---|---|
| Pass yards / game | 167.9 (123rd) | 242.1 (56th) |
| Rush yards / game | 145.0 (96th) | 171.0 (61st) |
| Yards per play | 5.23 (123rd) | 6.65 (34th) |
| Yards per carry | 4.39 (118th) | 5.05 (75th) |
| Yards per attempt | 6.71 (109th) | 9.31 (17th) |
| Completion % | 56.6% (103rd) | 64.8% (60th) |
| Success rate | 39.9% (107th) | 47.4% (30th) |
| Explosive play rate | 10.5% (108th) | 12.6% (57th) |
| 3rd down conversion | 39.1% (76th) | 46.3% (30th) |
| Sack rate (taken) | 6.9% (98th) | 8.1% (112th) |
| INT rate (thrown) | 4.0% (122nd) | 6.6% (134th) |
| SUPLEX | 49.3% (115th) | 61.5% (28th) |
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Michigan's defense is best placed to pick off passes: it ranks 19th in interception rate, and Rutgers' offense is bottom-20 at avoiding interceptions (134th). That's a mismatch. Rutgers' defense is best placed to pick off passes: it ranks 75th in interception rate, and Michigan's offense is bottom-20 at avoiding interceptions (122nd).
| Michigan | Rutgers | |
|---|---|---|
| Pass yards allowed / game | 158.0 (7th) | 219.3 (86th) |
| Rush yards allowed / game | 106.3 (10th) | 209.4 (128th) |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.49 (4th) | 6.74 (116th) |
| Yards per carry allowed | 3.48 (7th) | 6.85 (136th) |
| Yards per attempt allowed | 6.04 (25th) | 6.95 (63rd) |
| Success rate allowed | 35.2% (16th) | 45.4% (106th) |
| Explosive plays allowed | 7.3% (8th) | 15.5% (132nd) |
| 3rd downs allowed | 32.3% (23rd) | 38.6% (72nd) |
| Sack rate (generated) | 7.6% (36th) | 4.3% (111th) |
| INT rate (generated) | 3.8% (19th) | 2.3% (75th) |
| SUPLEX allowed | 43.9% (14th) | 64.2% (131st) |
What opponents managed against them.
Michigan is −0.6 in turnover margin a game and Rutgers is −1.0. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 2-point edge for Michigan. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.
| Michigan | Rutgers | |
|---|---|---|
| Interceptions thrown / game | 1.00 (105th) | 1.71 (134th) |
| Fumbles lost / game | 0.86 (116th) | 0.29 (20th) |
| Giveaways / game | 1.86 (126th) | 2.00 (128th) |
| Interceptions / game | 1.00 (22nd) | 0.71 (64th) |
| Fumbles recovered / game | 0.29 (94th) | 0.29 (94th) |
| Takeaways / game | 1.29 (54th) | 1.00 (88th) |
| Turnover margin / game | -0.6 (108th) | -1.0 (126th) |
Per game, from play-by-play.
Michigan has the more talented roster (11th in the 247Sports talent composite; Rutgers is 48th). Michigan also plays further above its talent: −2.8 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Rutgers' −7.8.
| Michigan | Rutgers | |
|---|---|---|
| Talent composite | 890.0 (11th) | 709.0 (48th) |
| Blue-chip ratio | 52.2% (15th) | 14.7% (50th) |
| Players on roster | 118 (25th) | 126 (5th) |
| Rated by 247Sports | 92 (18th) | 95 (10th) |
| 5-star players | 4 (11th) | 0 (37th) |
| 4-star players | 44 (10th) | 14 (45th) |
| 3-star players | 41 (119th) | 81 (5th) |
| Below 3-star | 3 (53rd) | 0 (113th) |
| 2026 transfers in | 19 (84th) | 16 (111th) |
| Transfer share | 20.7% (108th) | 16.8% (121st) |
| SP+ vs. talent | -2.8 (81st) | -7.8 (114th) |
| Returning production | 69.2% (22nd) | 44.4% (60th) |
| Returning passing production | 103.7% (5th) | 9.9% (81st) |
| Returning rushing production | 58.9% (60th) | 92.6% (25th) |
| Returning receiving production | 60.1% (28th) | 54.5% (38th) |
| 2026 recruiting class (national rank) | 12 (12th) | 36 (36th) |
| Recruiting rank, last four classes | 12.8 (13th) | 40.5 (38th) |
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Michigan's roster is valued at $33.3M, Rutgers' at $20.9M. Michigan also plays better per dollar: −4.8 points of SP+ above what its payroll predicts, to −11.1 for Rutgers.
| Michigan | Rutgers | |
|---|---|---|
| Roster value | $33.3M (11th) | $20.9M (45th) |
| Roster cost per win | $8.3M (62nd) | $10.5M (66th) |
| Projected wins per $1M | 0.21 (55th) | 0.17 (63rd) |
| SP+ vs. payroll | -4.8 (52nd) | -11.1 (66th) |
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
Michigan is +0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is roster (+1.6). Rutgers is −1.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (−0.9).
| Michigan | Rutgers | |
|---|---|---|
| BAWA (total) | +0.5 (57th) | -1.5 (115th) |
| Schedule BAWA | -0.6 (117th) | -0.3 (99th) |
| Roster BAWA | +1.6 (8th) | +0.3 (50th) |
| Coach BAWA | +0.0 (64th) | -0.9 (107th) |
| Luck BAWA | -0.5 (102nd) | -0.6 (107th) |
Big Al Wins Added: where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Big Al picks Michigan, 87% to win. All three ratings favor the same team. Michigan's best matchup is its takeaway defense, 19th in interceptions per pass, against Rutgers' ball security at 134th.
Sat, Oct 31, 12:30 PM ET at SHI Stadium, on BTN.
DraftKings has Michigan −14, total 46.5. Big Al picks winners, not bets.
Michigan leads 9–1. Last meeting: Michigan won 31–7 in 2023.
Michigan's is Bryce Underwood (936 passing yards this season); Rutgers' is AJ Surace (539 passing yards this season).
Numbers through the games of Oct 24, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Michigan and Rutgers: team pages with every stat and national rank. Compare any two teams.