College football, 2026 season
Data-driven picks for every FBS game + interactive charts you can customize to support any narrative (except Big 12 supremacy).
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About
Everything on this site starts with someone else's data, and we credit all of it. The projections, picks, rankings and tiers are our own math on top.
| Source | What we use | How often |
|---|---|---|
| CollegeFootballData.com, via the public cfbfastR files | Schedules, final scores, pregame Elo, play-by-play and box score stats, rosters | Usually posted Sunday or Monday morning after games |
| DraftKings lines (via The Odds API and CollegeFootballData.com) | The line and total on each game, and where each opened | Every morning, and before kickoffs Thursday to Saturday |
| Team logos and colors (ESPN's, via CollegeFootballData.com) | The logos on charts, game cards and team pages. They belong to the schools and are used only to identify the teams. | Preseason |
| SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update) | Overall, offense, defense and special teams ratings | Weekly |
| PRIME (primecfb.com) | Net, offense, defense and special teams ratings, strength of schedule, strength of record | Weekly |
| AP Top 25 (via NCAA.com) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sunday afternoons |
| AFCA Coaches Poll (via Yahoo Sports, CBS Sports, SI) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sundays |
| 247Sports | Team talent composite, star counts, 2026 transfer portal rankings | Preseason |
| The NIL Standard | Estimated NIL roster values | Preseason |
| us-atlas (U.S. Census Bureau boundaries) | State shapes for the map | Once |
Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of the 138 FBS teams.
About
Every stat and term on the site, explained like you're five. Or like you're a grown adult who never asked what EPA means and is now too embarrassed to.
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What the numbers on team pages, charts and head to head mean.
How Big Al's picks, tiers and projections work. The full method is on Sources and methods.
Who's who and how the 12-team field works.
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For where the numbers come from and the exact math, see Sources and methods. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
About
Last updated October 26, 2026.
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Big Al's CFB Lab publishes college football statistics, projections and opinions. Everything here is for information and entertainment. Projections and picks are estimates from public data and can be wrong, sometimes badly.
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Last updated October 26, 2026.
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Projected scores come from SP+ offense, defense and special teams, plus 2.5 points for the home team. Cards also show DraftKings' line and total as facts: we pick winners, not bets. Open Details for the full read, or Head to head for every stat.
"Off by" is how far the final margin landed from the projected margin.
Straight-up picks: did the pick win? Big Al's pick is the team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favor. Big Al and SP+ picks start in Week 8; Elo picks go back to Week 1.
Each column is that week's ranking. Arrows compare the latest poll to the week before. NR means not ranked.
Rankings come from cfbtrack.com. Week 1 is the preseason poll; each later week is the poll released before that week's games.
SP+ vs. payroll is the average, across a conference's teams with an NIL valuation (positive means its teams play better than their payrolls predict). Blue-chip ratio is the share of all its rostered players who were 4- or 5-star recruits.
Ranks are national, out of 138 FBS teams. A top-10 team also counts toward the top 25 and top 40, and everyone outside the last cutoff counts as weak. Open a conference to see its teams.
Seeds 1–4 get first-round byes. Seeds 5–8 host the first round.
The columns on the right show where each team would be seeded under the other ratings. A dash means out.
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of them favor.
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
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Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Week 9, Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM ET, Autzen Stadium.
Big Al's pick: Northwestern, 45% to win.
| Kickoff | Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM ET |
|---|---|
| TV | Peacock |
| Where | Autzen Stadium |
| Weather | 47°, wind 1 mph |
| Line | Oregon −3.5, total 47.5 |
| Line movement | Opened Oregon −7.5; moved 4 points toward Northwestern. Total opened 50.5, down 3. |
| Series | Tied 1–1 |
| Last meeting | Oregon 34–14 in 2025 |
| Oregon injuries | Dante Moore (QB), out for season |
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Oregon by 5.8 | 66% | 50 |
| PRIME | Northwestern by 7.7 | 71% | |
| Elo | Oregon | 62% | |
| The line | Oregon −3.5, opened −7.5 | 47.5, opened 50.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Wed, Oct 28, 2:21 PM ET.
Big Al's call: Northwestern. Chip.
The ratings point different ways and average out to about 50-50, so it's a coin flip. Oregon gets the nod by a hair. Oregon's best matchup is its run-stopping front, 11th in line yards allowed per carry, against Northwestern's offensive line at 73rd. Northwestern's way back in is its run game, 20th in rush yards per game, against Oregon's run defense at 68th. We left out the edges built on Moore, who's out.
| SP+ offense | SP+ defense | |
|---|---|---|
| Northwestern | 32.8 (31st) | 19.1 (26th) |
| Oregon | 33.2 (28th) | 16.5 (11th) |
| SUPLEX | SUPLEX allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Northwestern | 68.4% (7th) | 55.5% (82nd) |
| Oregon | 57.8% (55th) | 51.2% (50th) |
| Success rate | Explosive play rate | |
|---|---|---|
| Northwestern | 48.6% (23rd) | 17.8% (1st) |
| Oregon | 44.3% (63rd) | 12.5% (62nd) |
| Success rate allowed | Explosive plays allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Northwestern | 43.4% (86th) | 10.5% (57th) |
| Oregon | 35.5% (17th) | 10.2% (45th) |
| Yards per carry | Yards per attempt | |
|---|---|---|
| Northwestern | 6.18 (13th) | 8.83 (25th) |
| Oregon | 4.79 (97th) | 7.67 (67th) |
| 3rd down conversion | 3rd downs allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Northwestern | 44.0% (49th) | 41.7% (94th) |
| Oregon | 36.6% (94th) | 28.8% (12th) |
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Northwestern and Oregon are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 24, 2026.
| Player | Passing success rate (per dropback) | Passing yards |
|---|---|---|
| Aidan Chiles, Northwestern | 55.1% (4th) | 1,615 (39th) |
| Moore, Oregon | 46.2% (48th) | 959 (112th) |
| Player | Yards per carry | Rushing success rate |
|---|---|---|
| Caleb Komolafe, Northwestern | 6.2 (62nd) | 44.8% (150th) |
| Jordon Davison, Oregon | 4.8 (189th) | 44.3% (161st) |
| Player | Explosive catches (16+ yards) | Receiving yards |
|---|---|---|
| Griffin Wilde, Northwestern | 18 (9th) | 607 (25th) |
| Grahm Goering, Northwestern | 11 (66th) | 415 (90th) |
| Dakorien Moore, Oregon | 9 (107th) | 435 (74th) |
| Evan Stewart, Oregon | 8 (135th) | 332 (155th) |
| Player | Sacks | INTs | Fumble recoveries | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braydon Brus, Northwestern | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8th |
| Matayo Uiagalelei, Oregon | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9th |
| Teitum Tuioti, Oregon | 4 | 0 | 0 | 75th |
| Robert Fitzgerald, Northwestern | 0 | 2 | 1 | 192nd |
| Koi Perich, Oregon | 0 | 2 | 1 | 201st |
| Jamaal Johnson, Northwestern | 1 | 0 | 1 | 451st |
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 24, 2026.
On a neutral field, SP+ has Oregon 3.3 points better (12th to 20th). PRIME has Northwestern by 10.2 instead. The two ratings split on Oregon's offense: 28th in SP+, 94th in PRIME. Elo, which only sees results, also has Oregon ahead (17th to 22nd).
| Northwestern | Oregon | |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ overall | 13.7 (20th) | 17.0 (12th) |
| SP+ offense | 32.8 (31st) | 33.2 (28th) |
| SP+ defense | 19.1 (26th) | 16.5 (11th) |
| SP+ special teams | 0.0 (68th) | 0.2 (42nd) |
| PRIME net | 16.0 (13th) | 5.8 (45th) |
| PRIME offense | 11.13 (10th) | -3.58 (94th) |
| PRIME defense | 4.54 (33rd) | 9.12 (12th) |
| PRIME SOS | -3.9 (83rd) | 6.9 (5th) |
| PRIME SOR | 1.8 (22nd) | 1.6 (28th) |
| Elo | 1756 (22nd) | 1787 (17th) |
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Northwestern's offense ranks 9th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Oregon defense it faces ranks 9th in EPA per play allowed. Oregon's offense ranks 98th against Northwestern's 34th-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge. The biggest edge on the board is Northwestern's big plays: 18th in adjusted explosiveness, against Oregon's 106th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch.
| Northwestern | Oregon | |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play (adjusted) | +0.22 (9th) | +0.06 (98th) |
| EPA per pass (adjusted) | +0.30 (15th) | +0.17 (87th) |
| EPA per rush (adjusted) | +0.12 (27th) | −0.00 (125th) |
| Success rate (adjusted) | 48.8% (8th) | 40.3% (83rd) |
| Success rate, standard downs (adjusted) | 50.7% (19th) | 45.6% (90th) |
| Success rate, passing downs (adjusted) | 35.6% (6th) | 29.9% (80th) |
| Explosiveness (adjusted) | 0.97 (18th) | 0.91 (110th) |
| Line yards per carry (adjusted) | 2.95 (73rd) | 2.85 (102nd) |
| Open-field yards per carry (adjusted) | 1.38 (11th) | 1.09 (81st) |
| EPA per play allowed (adjusted) | +0.05 (34th) | −0.01 (9th) |
| EPA per pass allowed (adjusted) | +0.10 (16th) | +0.10 (15th) |
| EPA per rush allowed (adjusted) | +0.08 (85th) | −0.00 (19th) |
| Success rate allowed (adjusted) | 42.5% (80th) | 33.6% (4th) |
| Explosiveness allowed (adjusted) | 0.95 (97th) | 0.96 (106th) |
| Line yards allowed per carry (adjusted) | 3.08 (108th) | 2.71 (11th) |
| Open-field yards allowed per carry (adjusted) | 1.38 (126th) | 1.16 (80th) |
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Northwestern is about as good throwing (8th in EPA per pass) as running (8th). Oregon is better throwing (80th in EPA per pass) than running (118th). Northwestern's pass defense ranks 21st, so the defense has the better of it.
| Northwestern | Oregon | |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.35 (5th) | +0.09 (88th) |
| EPA per pass | +0.48 (8th) | +0.19 (80th) |
| EPA per rush | +0.25 (8th) | −0.01 (118th) |
| EPA per 3rd-down play | +0.63 (25th) | +0.11 (128th) |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.04 (42nd) | 0.00 (23rd) |
| EPA per pass allowed | +0.04 (21st) | +0.06 (31st) |
| EPA per rush allowed | +0.07 (69th) | −0.03 (32nd) |
| EPA per 3rd-down play allowed | +0.23 (20th) | +0.13 (9th) |
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Northwestern outscores FBS opponents by 18.1 a game, and Oregon by 12.4. Northwestern's offense ranks 35th in scoring, and the Oregon defense it faces ranks 39th in points allowed. Oregon's offense ranks 40th against Northwestern's 22nd-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge.
| Northwestern | Oregon | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored | 34.7 (35th) | 33.1 (40th) |
| Points allowed | 16.6 (22nd) | 20.7 (39th) |
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Northwestern's best matchup is its run game: its offense ranks 13th in yards per carry, and Oregon's defense ranks 59th in yards per carry allowed. Oregon's best matchup is early downs: its offense ranks 55th in SUPLEX, and Northwestern's defense ranks 82nd in SUPLEX allowed.
| Northwestern | Oregon | |
|---|---|---|
| Pass yards / game | 230.7 (69th) | 280.4 (24th) |
| Rush yards / game | 212.7 (20th) | 151.1 (90th) |
| Yards per play | 7.09 (17th) | 6.19 (67th) |
| Yards per carry | 6.18 (13th) | 4.79 (97th) |
| Yards per attempt | 8.83 (25th) | 7.67 (67th) |
| Completion % | 63.4% (69th) | 65.6% (52nd) |
| Success rate | 48.6% (23rd) | 44.3% (63rd) |
| Explosive play rate | 17.8% (1st) | 12.5% (62nd) |
| 3rd down conversion | 44.0% (49th) | 36.6% (94th) |
| Sack rate (taken) | 7.1% (100th) | 4.1% (34th) |
| INT rate (thrown) | 0.5% (7th) | 1.2% (22nd) |
| SUPLEX | 68.4% (7th) | 57.8% (55th) |
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Oregon's defense is best placed to get off the field on third down: it ranks 12th in 3rd down conversions allowed, and Northwestern's offense is above average in 3rd down conversion rate (49th).
| Northwestern | Oregon | |
|---|---|---|
| Pass yards allowed / game | 215.0 (74th) | 200.4 (47th) |
| Rush yards allowed / game | 168.1 (94th) | 148.7 (68th) |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.76 (73rd) | 5.40 (42nd) |
| Yards per carry allowed | 5.37 (102nd) | 4.67 (59th) |
| Yards per attempt allowed | 6.40 (40th) | 6.50 (43rd) |
| Success rate allowed | 43.4% (86th) | 35.5% (17th) |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.5% (57th) | 10.2% (45th) |
| 3rd downs allowed | 41.7% (94th) | 28.8% (12th) |
| Sack rate (generated) | 4.9% (101st) | 6.1% (70th) |
| INT rate (generated) | 3.4% (32nd) | 4.6% (11th) |
| SUPLEX allowed | 55.5% (82nd) | 51.2% (50th) |
What opponents managed against them.
Northwestern is +1.3 in turnover margin a game and Oregon is 0.0. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 6-point edge for Northwestern. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.
| Northwestern | Oregon | |
|---|---|---|
| Interceptions thrown / game | 0.14 (5th) | 0.43 (26th) |
| Fumbles lost / game | 0.29 (20th) | 1.29 (134th) |
| Giveaways / game | 0.43 (3rd) | 1.71 (117th) |
| Interceptions / game | 1.14 (14th) | 1.29 (10th) |
| Fumbles recovered / game | 0.57 (49th) | 0.43 (68th) |
| Takeaways / game | 1.71 (16th) | 1.71 (16th) |
| Turnover margin / game | +1.3 (5th) | 0.0 (66th) |
Per game, from play-by-play.
Oregon has the more talented roster (3rd in the 247Sports talent composite; Northwestern is 60th). But Northwestern plays further above its talent: +12.1 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Oregon's −3.2.
| Northwestern | Oregon | |
|---|---|---|
| Talent composite | 688.3 (60th) | 984.3 (3rd) |
| Blue-chip ratio | 8.0% (79th) | 65.9% (5th) |
| Players on roster | 124 (10th) | 114 (44th) |
| Rated by 247Sports | 100 (2nd) | 88 (33rd) |
| 5-star players | 0 (37th) | 11 (3rd) |
| 4-star players | 8 (62nd) | 47 (6th) |
| 3-star players | 86 (2nd) | 30 (131st) |
| Below 3-star | 6 (20th) | 0 (113th) |
| 2026 transfers in | 17 (103rd) | 15 (114th) |
| Transfer share | 17.0% (120th) | 17.0% (119th) |
| SP+ vs. talent | +12.1 (12th) | -3.2 (88th) |
| Returning production | 88.5% (8th) | 75.3% (17th) |
| Returning passing production | 93.9% (36th) | 94.5% (31st) |
| Returning rushing production | 88.0% (29th) | 68.3% (49th) |
| Returning receiving production | 86.3% (7th) | 63.5% (23rd) |
| 2026 recruiting class (national rank) | 52 (52nd) | 3 (3rd) |
| Recruiting rank, last four classes | 61.2 (63rd) | 5.0 (5th) |
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Oregon's roster is valued at $44.3M, Northwestern's at $19.9M. Dollar for dollar, Northwestern plays better: +8.6 points of SP+ above what its payroll predicts, to −5.5 for Oregon.
| Northwestern | Oregon | |
|---|---|---|
| Roster value | $19.9M (54th) | $44.3M (2nd) |
| Roster cost per win | $3.3M (6th) | $11.1M (68th) |
| Projected wins per $1M | 0.40 (7th) | 0.18 (60th) |
| SP+ vs. payroll | +8.6 (9th) | -5.5 (54th) |
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
Northwestern is +2.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (+1.0). Oregon is +0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is roster (+2.2).
| Northwestern | Oregon | |
|---|---|---|
| BAWA (total) | +2.5 (8th) | +0.5 (57th) |
| Schedule BAWA | +0.8 (53rd) | -1.3 (132nd) |
| Roster BAWA | +0.3 (50th) | +2.2 (3rd) |
| Coach BAWA | +1.0 (27th) | +0.4 (51st) |
| Luck BAWA | +0.4 (41st) | -0.8 (111th) |
Big Al Wins Added: where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
The ratings call it a coin flip, and Big Al takes Northwestern. Chip.
Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM ET at Autzen Stadium, on Peacock.
DraftKings has Oregon −3.5, total 47.5. Big Al picks winners, not bets.
It's tied 1–1. Last meeting: Oregon won 34–14 in 2025.
Northwestern's is Aidan Chiles (1,615 passing yards this season); Oregon's is Moore (959 passing yards this season).
Oregon: Moore (QB), out for season.
Numbers through the games of Oct 24, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Northwestern and Oregon: team pages with every stat and national rank. Compare any two teams.