College football, 2026 season
Data-driven picks for every FBS game + interactive charts you can customize to support any narrative (except Big 12 supremacy).
Picks and projected scores for every FBS game this week.
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Up to 10 legs, one per game: a moneyline, a side against the spread or an over/under. Lines and prices are DraftKings'. When we don't have DraftKings' price on a spread or total, it shows the standard −110. Each leg shows our call on it, from our number (SP+ and PRIME): a Lock, Take or Lean on the side we like, Other side when we'd bet the opposite. Random parlay grabs 3 to 6 games from the list and picks a leg in each, no thinking involved. It's for fun. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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About
Everything on this site starts with someone else's data, and we credit all of it. The projections, picks, rankings and tiers are our own math on top.
| Source | What we use | How often |
|---|---|---|
| CollegeFootballData.com, via the public cfbfastR files | Schedules, final scores, pregame Elo, play-by-play and box score stats, rosters | Usually posted Sunday or Monday morning after games |
| DraftKings lines (via The Odds API and CollegeFootballData.com) | The line and total on each game, and where each opened | Every morning, and before kickoffs Thursday to Saturday |
| Team logos and colors (ESPN's, via CollegeFootballData.com) | The logos on charts, game cards and team pages. They belong to the schools and are used only to identify the teams. | Preseason |
| SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update) | Overall, offense, defense and special teams ratings | Weekly |
| PRIME (primecfb.com) | Net, offense, defense and special teams ratings, strength of schedule, strength of record | Weekly |
| AP Top 25 (via NCAA.com) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sunday afternoons |
| AFCA Coaches Poll (via Yahoo Sports, CBS Sports, SI) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sundays |
| 247Sports | Team talent composite, star counts, 2026 transfer portal rankings | Preseason |
| The NIL Standard | Estimated NIL roster values | Preseason |
| us-atlas (U.S. Census Bureau boundaries) | State shapes for the map | Once |
Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of the 138 FBS teams.
About
Every stat and term on the site, explained like you're five. Or like you're a grown adult who never asked what EPA means and is now too embarrassed to.
The words on the betting side of the site, explained like you've never placed a bet. Good for you.
What the numbers on team pages, charts and head to head mean.
How Big Al's picks, tiers and projections work. The full method is on Sources and methods.
Who's who and how the 12-team field works.
Nothing matches that. Try a shorter word.
For where the numbers come from and the exact math, see Sources and methods. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
About
Last updated October 26, 2026.
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Big Al's CFB Lab publishes college football statistics, projections and opinions. Everything here is for information and entertainment. Projections and picks are estimates from public data and can be wrong, sometimes badly.
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About
Last updated October 26, 2026.
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Projected scores come from SP+ offense, defense and special teams, plus 2.5 points for the home team. Cards also show DraftKings' line and total as facts: we pick winners, not bets. Open Details for the full read, or Head to head for every stat.
Final scores against what we said before kickoff. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favored, unless he made the call himself on a toss-up or one of the week's biggest games. Ranked means in that week's AP poll. Open a game for the full preview as it stood going into the week.
Straight-up picks: did the pick win? Big Al's pick is the team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favor. Big Al and SP+ picks start in Week 8; Elo picks go back to Week 1.
Each column is that week's ranking. Arrows compare the latest poll to the week before. NR means not ranked.
Rankings come from cfbtrack.com. Week 1 is the preseason poll; each later week is the poll released before that week's games.
SP+ vs. payroll is the average, across a conference's teams with an NIL valuation (positive means its teams play better than their payrolls predict). Blue-chip ratio is the share of all its rostered players who were 4- or 5-star recruits.
Ranks are national, out of 138 FBS teams. A top-10 team also counts toward the top 25 and top 40, and everyone outside the last cutoff counts as weak. Open a conference to see its teams.
Seeds 1–4 get first-round byes. Seeds 5–8 host the first round.
The columns on the right show where each team would be seeded under the other ratings. A dash means out.
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor. On the toss-ups and the biggest games, Big Al makes the call himself and says why.
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
FAQ
Keep going
Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Week 9, Sat, Oct 31, 7:30 PM ET, Kenan Stadium.
Big Al's pick: Miami, 89% to win.
| Kickoff | Sat, Oct 31, 7:30 PM ET |
|---|---|
| TV | ABC |
| Where | Kenan Stadium |
| Weather | 60°, overcast, wind 5 mph |
| Line | Miami −14, total 52.5 |
| Line movement | Opened Miami −14.5; moved 0.5 points toward North Carolina. Total opened 50.5, up 2. |
| Series | North Carolina leads 16–11 |
| Last meeting | North Carolina 41–31 in 2023 |
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Miami by 18.5 | 91% | 55 |
| PRIME | Miami by 13.0 | 82% | |
| Elo | Miami | 95% | |
| The line | Miami −14, opened −14.5 | 52.5, opened 50.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Wed, Oct 28, 2:21 PM ET.
Big Al's pick: Miami. 89% to win
All three ratings favor Miami, by 13.0 to 18.5 points, and it isn't close. Miami's best matchup is its 3rd down offense, 11th in 3rd down conversion, against North Carolina's 3rd down defense at 109th. North Carolina's way back in is its ball security, 67th in interceptions thrown per pass, against Miami's takeaway defense at 101st.
| SP+ offense | SP+ defense | |
|---|---|---|
| Miami | 40.9 (1st) | 16.6 (14th) |
| North Carolina | 26.3 (75th) | 22.5 (42nd) |
| SUPLEX | SUPLEX allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Miami | 65.8% (15th) | 48.9% (36th) |
| North Carolina | 58.8% (45th) | 52.6% (60th) |
| Success rate | Explosive play rate | |
|---|---|---|
| Miami | 51.7% (9th) | 16.6% (7th) |
| North Carolina | 44.3% (63rd) | 11.2% (94th) |
| Success rate allowed | Explosive plays allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Miami | 36.5% (25th) | 9.9% (33rd) |
| North Carolina | 44.0% (92nd) | 6.9% (5th) |
| Yards per carry | Yards per attempt | |
|---|---|---|
| Miami | 6.25 (10th) | 10.02 (6th) |
| North Carolina | 4.84 (90th) | 7.17 (88th) |
| 3rd down conversion | 3rd downs allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Miami | 50.6% (11th) | 37.5% (58th) |
| North Carolina | 38.6% (80th) | 44.2% (109th) |
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Miami and North Carolina are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 24, 2026.
| Player | Passing success rate (per dropback) | Passing yards |
|---|---|---|
| Darian Mensah, Miami | 60.1% (1st) | 2,155 (10th) |
| Billy Edwards, North Carolina | 47.0% (40th) | 1,534 (52nd) |
| Player | Yards per carry | Rushing success rate |
|---|---|---|
| Mark Fletcher Jr., Miami | 5.5 (109th) | 44.4% (157th) |
| Demon June, North Carolina | 4.1 (275th) | 44.8% (149th) |
| Player | Explosive catches (16+ yards) | Receiving yards |
|---|---|---|
| Malachi Toney, Miami | 20 (4th) | 952 (3rd) |
| Cooper Barkate, Miami | 5 (281st) | 301 (185th) |
| Jordan Shipp, North Carolina | 11 (65th) | 543 (39th) |
| Jelani Thurman, North Carolina | 6 (227th) | 393 (107th) |
| Player | Sacks | INTs | Fumble recoveries | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier Lewis, North Carolina | 6 | 0 | 0 | 7th |
| Damon Wilson Jr., Miami | 3 | 0 | 1 | 57th |
| Marquise Lightfoot, Miami | 4 | 0 | 0 | 58th |
| Gregory Smith, North Carolina | 0 | 3 | 1 | 65th |
| Jaylen Harvey, North Carolina | 2 | 0 | 2 | 66th |
| Herbert Scroggins III, Miami | 2 | 0 | 1 | 173rd |
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 24, 2026.
On a neutral field, SP+ has Miami 21.0 points better (5th to 58th). PRIME also has Miami ahead, by 15.5. Elo, which only sees results, also has Miami ahead (5th to 77th).
| Miami | North Carolina | |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ overall | 24.7 (5th) | 3.7 (58th) |
| SP+ offense | 40.9 (1st) | 26.3 (75th) |
| SP+ defense | 16.6 (14th) | 22.5 (42nd) |
| SP+ special teams | 0.4 (11th) | -0.2 (92nd) |
| PRIME net | 22.4 (5th) | 6.9 (36th) |
| PRIME offense | 16.04 (1st) | 1.95 (47th) |
| PRIME defense | 6.14 (23rd) | 4.11 (35th) |
| PRIME SOS | -2.3 (67th) | 1.7 (28th) |
| PRIME SOR | 3.1 (6th) | 0.8 (47th) |
| Elo | 2018 (5th) | 1461 (77th) |
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Miami's offense ranks 3rd in adjusted EPA per play, and the North Carolina defense it faces ranks 53rd in EPA per play allowed. North Carolina's offense ranks 65th against Miami's 34th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Miami's offense against North Carolina's defense. The biggest edge on the board is Miami's offensive line in the run game: 11th in adjusted line yards per carry, against North Carolina's 80th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch.
| Miami | North Carolina | |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play (adjusted) | +0.25 (3rd) | +0.11 (65th) |
| EPA per pass (adjusted) | +0.42 (1st) | +0.21 (50th) |
| EPA per rush (adjusted) | +0.07 (66th) | +0.04 (89th) |
| Success rate (adjusted) | 47.1% (16th) | 45.1% (32nd) |
| Success rate, standard downs (adjusted) | 50.2% (25th) | 49.2% (34th) |
| Success rate, passing downs (adjusted) | 34.3% (10th) | 31.0% (60th) |
| Explosiveness (adjusted) | 0.94 (69th) | 0.90 (127th) |
| Line yards per carry (adjusted) | 3.19 (11th) | 2.98 (57th) |
| Open-field yards per carry (adjusted) | 1.14 (67th) | 1.00 (109th) |
| EPA per play allowed (adjusted) | +0.05 (34th) | +0.08 (53rd) |
| EPA per pass allowed (adjusted) | +0.17 (59th) | +0.16 (49th) |
| EPA per rush allowed (adjusted) | −0.03 (7th) | +0.07 (73rd) |
| Success rate allowed (adjusted) | 38.2% (24th) | 42.5% (79th) |
| Explosiveness allowed (adjusted) | 0.92 (37th) | 0.92 (47th) |
| Line yards allowed per carry (adjusted) | 2.77 (21st) | 3.00 (80th) |
| Open-field yards allowed per carry (adjusted) | 0.96 (16th) | 1.05 (47th) |
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Miami is better throwing (1st in EPA per pass) than running (22nd). North Carolina's pass defense ranks 37th, so that's an edge. North Carolina is better throwing (76th in EPA per pass) than running (96th). Miami's pass defense ranks 66th. On third down, Miami has the edge: its offense ranks 1st in EPA per third-down play, and the defense it faces ranks 86th.
| Miami | North Carolina | |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.44 (1st) | +0.10 (83rd) |
| EPA per pass | +0.68 (1st) | +0.20 (76th) |
| EPA per rush | +0.20 (22nd) | +0.04 (96th) |
| EPA per 3rd-down play | +1.02 (1st) | +0.35 (97th) |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.03 (36th) | +0.04 (42nd) |
| EPA per pass allowed | +0.16 (66th) | +0.08 (37th) |
| EPA per rush allowed | −0.18 (2nd) | +0.06 (66th) |
| EPA per 3rd-down play allowed | +0.25 (27th) | +0.45 (86th) |
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Miami outscores FBS opponents by 33.7 a game, and North Carolina by 3.5. Miami's offense ranks 1st in scoring, and the North Carolina defense it faces ranks 40th in points allowed. North Carolina's offense ranks 96th against Miami's 11th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Miami's offense against North Carolina's defense.
| Miami | North Carolina | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored | 49.0 (1st) | 24.4 (96th) |
| Points allowed | 15.3 (11th) | 20.9 (40th) |
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Miami's best matchup is third downs: its offense ranks 11th in 3rd down conversion rate, and North Carolina's defense ranks 109th in 3rd down conversions allowed. That's a mismatch. North Carolina has no clear edge here. Its best is SUPLEX, 45th, against a defense ranked 36th in SUPLEX allowed.
| Miami | North Carolina | |
|---|---|---|
| Pass yards / game | 340.6 (4th) | 222.3 (78th) |
| Rush yards / game | 214.3 (19th) | 129.3 (115th) |
| Yards per play | 7.98 (3rd) | 5.89 (91st) |
| Yards per carry | 6.25 (10th) | 4.84 (90th) |
| Yards per attempt | 10.02 (6th) | 7.17 (88th) |
| Completion % | 77.7% (5th) | 57.1% (99th) |
| Success rate | 51.7% (9th) | 44.3% (63rd) |
| Explosive play rate | 16.6% (7th) | 11.2% (94th) |
| 3rd down conversion | 50.6% (11th) | 38.6% (80th) |
| Sack rate (taken) | 3.6% (29th) | 6.1% (83rd) |
| INT rate (thrown) | 0.8% (15th) | 2.3% (67th) |
| SUPLEX | 65.8% (15th) | 58.8% (45th) |
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Miami's defense is best placed to stop the run: it ranks 5th in yards per carry allowed, and North Carolina's offense is middle of the pack in yards per carry (90th). That's a mismatch.
| Miami | North Carolina | |
|---|---|---|
| Pass yards allowed / game | 241.7 (110th) | 219.1 (85th) |
| Rush yards allowed / game | 72.1 (1st) | 170.0 (98th) |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.42 (48th) | 5.50 (54th) |
| Yards per carry allowed | 3.44 (5th) | 4.76 (67th) |
| Yards per attempt allowed | 7.02 (68th) | 6.61 (51st) |
| Success rate allowed | 36.5% (25th) | 44.0% (92nd) |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.9% (33rd) | 6.9% (5th) |
| 3rd downs allowed | 37.5% (58th) | 44.2% (109th) |
| Sack rate (generated) | 6.6% (59th) | 5.3% (89th) |
| INT rate (generated) | 1.7% (101st) | 2.2% (78th) |
| SUPLEX allowed | 48.9% (36th) | 52.6% (60th) |
What opponents managed against them.
Miami is +0.7 in turnover margin a game and North Carolina is −0.3. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 5-point edge for Miami. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it. Fumble recoveries are mostly luck, and Miami's takeaways lean on them (0.7 of 1.3 a game).
| Miami | North Carolina | |
|---|---|---|
| Interceptions thrown / game | 0.29 (17th) | 0.71 (59th) |
| Fumbles lost / game | 0.29 (20th) | 0.71 (99th) |
| Giveaways / game | 0.57 (7th) | 1.43 (88th) |
| Interceptions / game | 0.57 (84th) | 0.71 (64th) |
| Fumbles recovered / game | 0.71 (22nd) | 0.43 (68th) |
| Takeaways / game | 1.29 (54th) | 1.14 (66th) |
| Turnover margin / game | +0.7 (18th) | -0.3 (89th) |
Per game, from play-by-play.
Miami has the more talented roster (12th in the 247Sports talent composite; North Carolina is 28th). Miami also plays further above its talent: +10.7 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to North Carolina's −2.9.
| Miami | North Carolina | |
|---|---|---|
| Talent composite | 885.9 (12th) | 767.9 (28th) |
| Blue-chip ratio | 55.7% (10th) | 27.8% (31st) |
| Players on roster | 113 (51st) | 109 (82nd) |
| Rated by 247Sports | 88 (33rd) | 90 (23rd) |
| 5-star players | 6 (8th) | 0 (37th) |
| 4-star players | 43 (12th) | 25 (26th) |
| 3-star players | 36 (124th) | 65 (54th) |
| Below 3-star | 3 (53rd) | 0 (113th) |
| 2026 transfers in | 13 (120th) | 19 (84th) |
| Transfer share | 14.8% (124th) | 21.1% (103rd) |
| SP+ vs. talent | +10.7 (17th) | -2.9 (85th) |
| Returning production | 36.9% (75th) | 27.8% (90th) |
| Returning passing production | 5.5% (92nd) | 9.5% (82nd) |
| Returning rushing production | 91.4% (26th) | 53.6% (63rd) |
| Returning receiving production | 44.9% (56th) | 32.8% (77th) |
| 2026 recruiting class (national rank) | 9 (9th) | 19 (19th) |
| Recruiting rank, last four classes | 8.2 (6th) | 29.0 (24th) |
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Miami's roster is valued at $39.4M, North Carolina's at $20.7M. Miami also plays better per dollar: +4.8 points of SP+ above what its payroll predicts, to −2.3 for North Carolina.
| Miami | North Carolina | |
|---|---|---|
| Roster value | $39.4M (4th) | $20.7M (48th) |
| Roster cost per win | $5.6M (41st) | $5.2M (29th) |
| Projected wins per $1M | 0.27 (37th) | 0.25 (43rd) |
| SP+ vs. payroll | +4.8 (17th) | -2.3 (42nd) |
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
Miami is +3.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (+1.3). North Carolina is +0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is luck (+0.8).
| Miami | North Carolina | |
|---|---|---|
| BAWA (total) | +3.5 (1st) | +0.5 (57th) |
| Schedule BAWA | +0.4 (71st) | -0.7 (122nd) |
| Roster BAWA | +1.3 (14th) | +0.7 (29th) |
| Coach BAWA | +1.3 (16th) | -0.2 (79th) |
| Luck BAWA | +0.5 (36th) | +0.8 (24th) |
Big Al Wins Added: where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Big Al picks Miami, 89% to win. All three ratings favor the same team. Miami's best matchup is its 3rd down offense, 11th in 3rd down conversion, against North Carolina's 3rd down defense at 109th.
Sat, Oct 31, 7:30 PM ET at Kenan Stadium, on ABC.
DraftKings has Miami −14, total 52.5. Big Al picks winners, not bets.
North Carolina leads 16–11. Last meeting: North Carolina won 41–31 in 2023.
Miami's is Darian Mensah (2,155 passing yards this season); North Carolina's is Billy Edwards (1,534 passing yards this season).
Numbers through the games of Oct 24, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Miami and North Carolina: team pages with every stat and national rank. Compare any two teams.