College football, 2026 season
Data-driven picks for every FBS game + interactive charts you can customize to support any narrative (except Big 12 supremacy).
Picks and projected scores for every FBS game this week.
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Up to 10 legs, one per game: a moneyline, a side against the spread or an over/under. Lines and prices are DraftKings'. When we don't have DraftKings' price on a spread or total, it shows the standard −110. Each leg shows our call on it, from our number (SP+ and PRIME): a Lock, Take or Lean on the side we like, Other side when we'd bet the opposite. Random parlay grabs 3 to 6 games from the list and picks a leg in each, no thinking involved. It's for fun. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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About
Everything on this site starts with someone else's data, and we credit all of it. The projections, picks, rankings and tiers are our own math on top.
| Source | What we use | How often |
|---|---|---|
| CollegeFootballData.com, via the public cfbfastR files | Schedules, final scores, pregame Elo, play-by-play and box score stats, rosters | Usually posted Sunday or Monday morning after games |
| DraftKings lines (via The Odds API and CollegeFootballData.com) | The line and total on each game, and where each opened | Every morning, and before kickoffs Thursday to Saturday |
| Team logos and colors (ESPN's, via CollegeFootballData.com) | The logos on charts, game cards and team pages. They belong to the schools and are used only to identify the teams. | Preseason |
| SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update) | Overall, offense, defense and special teams ratings | Weekly |
| PRIME (primecfb.com) | Net, offense, defense and special teams ratings, strength of schedule, strength of record | Weekly |
| AP Top 25 (via NCAA.com) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sunday afternoons |
| AFCA Coaches Poll (via Yahoo Sports, CBS Sports, SI) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sundays |
| 247Sports | Team talent composite, star counts, 2026 transfer portal rankings | Preseason |
| The NIL Standard | Estimated NIL roster values | Preseason |
| us-atlas (U.S. Census Bureau boundaries) | State shapes for the map | Once |
Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of the 138 FBS teams.
About
Every stat and term on the site, explained like you're five. Or like you're a grown adult who never asked what EPA means and is now too embarrassed to.
The words on the betting side of the site, explained like you've never placed a bet. Good for you.
What the numbers on team pages, charts and head to head mean.
How Big Al's picks, tiers and projections work. The full method is on Sources and methods.
Who's who and how the 12-team field works.
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For where the numbers come from and the exact math, see Sources and methods. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
About
Last updated October 26, 2026.
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Big Al's CFB Lab publishes college football statistics, projections and opinions. Everything here is for information and entertainment. Projections and picks are estimates from public data and can be wrong, sometimes badly.
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Last updated October 26, 2026.
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Projected scores come from SP+ offense, defense and special teams, plus 2.5 points for the home team. Cards also show DraftKings' line and total as facts: we pick winners, not bets. Open Details for the full read, or Head to head for every stat.
Final scores against what we said before kickoff. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favored, unless he made the call himself on a toss-up or one of the week's biggest games. Ranked means in that week's AP poll. Open a game for the full preview as it stood going into the week.
Straight-up picks: did the pick win? Big Al's pick is the team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favor. Big Al and SP+ picks start in Week 8; Elo picks go back to Week 1.
Each column is that week's ranking. Arrows compare the latest poll to the week before. NR means not ranked.
Rankings come from cfbtrack.com. Week 1 is the preseason poll; each later week is the poll released before that week's games.
SP+ vs. payroll is the average, across a conference's teams with an NIL valuation (positive means its teams play better than their payrolls predict). Blue-chip ratio is the share of all its rostered players who were 4- or 5-star recruits.
Ranks are national, out of 138 FBS teams. A top-10 team also counts toward the top 25 and top 40, and everyone outside the last cutoff counts as weak. Open a conference to see its teams.
Seeds 1–4 get first-round byes. Seeds 5–8 host the first round.
The columns on the right show where each team would be seeded under the other ratings. A dash means out.
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor. On the toss-ups and the biggest games, Big Al makes the call himself and says why.
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
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Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Week 9, Sat, Oct 31, 12:00 PM ET, Carter-Finley Stadium.
Big Al's pick: NC State, 77% to win.
| Kickoff | Sat, Oct 31, 12:00 PM ET |
|---|---|
| TV | ACC Network |
| Where | Carter-Finley Stadium |
| Weather | 68°, cloudy, wind 8 mph |
| Line | NC State −7, total 56.5 |
| Line movement | Opened NC State −8.5; moved 1.5 points toward California. |
| Series | NC State leads 1–0 |
| Last meeting | NC State 24–23 in 2024 |
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | NC State by 9.8 | 76% | 62 |
| PRIME | NC State by 9.8 | 76% | |
| Elo | NC State | 84% | |
| The line | NC State −7, opened −8.5 | 56.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Wed, Oct 28, 2:21 PM ET.
Big Al's pick: NC State. 78% to win
All three ratings favor NC State, by 9.8 points. NC State's best matchup is its run game, 58th in yards per carry, against California's run defense at 132nd. California's way back in is its pass protection, 23rd in sacks allowed per dropback, against NC State's pass rush at 93rd.
| SP+ offense | SP+ defense | |
|---|---|---|
| California | 22.8 (101st) | 30.5 (103rd) |
| NC State | 30.0 (46th) | 31.0 (107th) |
| SUPLEX | SUPLEX allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| California | 45.1% (128th) | 56.5% (85th) |
| NC State | 54.2% (84th) | 66.3% (136th) |
| Success rate | Explosive play rate | |
|---|---|---|
| California | 36.4% (130th) | 9.0% (128th) |
| NC State | 43.2% (76th) | 11.5% (87th) |
| Success rate allowed | Explosive plays allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| California | 44.5% (95th) | 15.8% (134th) |
| NC State | 47.5% (120th) | 16.6% (136th) |
| Yards per carry | Yards per attempt | |
|---|---|---|
| California | 3.68 (133rd) | 6.18 (117th) |
| NC State | 5.32 (58th) | 6.98 (95th) |
| 3rd down conversion | 3rd downs allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| California | 34.1% (109th) | 44.1% (108th) |
| NC State | 45.6% (34th) | 40.9% (89th) |
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; California and NC State are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 24, 2026.
| Player | Passing success rate (per dropback) | Passing yards |
|---|---|---|
| Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, California | 40.6% (107th) | 1,612 (40th) |
| CJ Bailey, NC State | 47.5% (35th) | 1,512 (55th) |
| Player | Yards per carry | Rushing success rate |
|---|---|---|
| Ashten Emory, California | 3.2 (343rd) | 39.2% (249th) |
| Davion Gause, NC State | 3.5 (330th) | 26.4% (350th) |
| Player | Explosive catches (16+ yards) | Receiving yards |
|---|---|---|
| Chase Hendricks, California | 7 (148th) | 506 (49th) |
| Ian Strong, California | 14 (24th) | 506 (50th) |
| Keenan Jackson, NC State | 9 (100th) | 403 (98th) |
| Preston Douglas, NC State | 5 (287th) | 253 (264th) |
| Player | Sacks | INTs | Fumble recoveries | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kingston Lopa, California | 0 | 5 | 0 | 17th |
| AJ Tuitele, California | 3 | 0 | 0 | 126th |
| JD McKinley, California | 3 | 0 | 0 | 127th |
| Raul Aguirre Jr., NC State | 0 | 0 | 3 | 181st |
| Adrian Farrow, NC State | 1 | 0 | 1 | 429th |
| Elijah Satchell, NC State | 2 | 0 | 0 | 430th |
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 24, 2026.
On a neutral field, SP+ has NC State 7.3 points better (74th to 101st). PRIME also has NC State ahead, by 7.3. Elo, which only sees results, also has NC State ahead (75th to 118th).
| California | NC State | |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ overall | -8.2 (101st) | -0.9 (74th) |
| SP+ offense | 22.8 (101st) | 30.0 (46th) |
| SP+ defense | 30.5 (103rd) | 31.0 (107th) |
| SP+ special teams | -0.5 (124th) | 0.1 (54th) |
| PRIME net | -10.2 (108th) | -2.9 (83rd) |
| PRIME offense | -6.46 (112th) | 2.36 (42nd) |
| PRIME defense | -3.51 (98th) | -6.02 (113th) |
| PRIME SOS | 1.7 (28th) | -0.5 (49th) |
| PRIME SOR | -0.7 (90th) | -0.6 (86th) |
| Elo | 1236 (118th) | 1465 (75th) |
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
California's offense ranks 131st in adjusted EPA per play, and the NC State defense it faces ranks 121st in EPA per play allowed. NC State's offense ranks 70th against California's 117th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is NC State's offense against California's defense. The biggest edge on the board is NC State's passing game: 38th in adjusted EPA per pass, against California's 77th-ranked defense. Adjust for opponents and NC State's offense falls from 31st to 70th in EPA per play: a lot of that came against soft defenses.
| California | NC State | |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play (adjusted) | −0.00 (131st) | +0.10 (70th) |
| EPA per pass (adjusted) | +0.11 (121st) | +0.23 (38th) |
| EPA per rush (adjusted) | −0.02 (127th) | +0.00 (124th) |
| Success rate (adjusted) | 37.4% (122nd) | 41.1% (77th) |
| Success rate, standard downs (adjusted) | 42.6% (130th) | 45.1% (98th) |
| Success rate, passing downs (adjusted) | 28.8% (105th) | 33.0% (22nd) |
| Explosiveness (adjusted) | 0.93 (87th) | 0.91 (126th) |
| Line yards per carry (adjusted) | 2.63 (133rd) | 2.85 (103rd) |
| Open-field yards per carry (adjusted) | 0.89 (129th) | 0.96 (121st) |
| EPA per play allowed (adjusted) | +0.18 (117th) | +0.20 (121st) |
| EPA per pass allowed (adjusted) | +0.21 (77th) | +0.32 (130th) |
| EPA per rush allowed (adjusted) | +0.18 (135th) | +0.10 (102nd) |
| Success rate allowed (adjusted) | 41.1% (56th) | 44.9% (108th) |
| Explosiveness allowed (adjusted) | 0.99 (134th) | 0.96 (113th) |
| Line yards allowed per carry (adjusted) | 3.20 (127th) | 2.98 (76th) |
| Open-field yards allowed per carry (adjusted) | 1.46 (132nd) | 1.30 (111th) |
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
California is better throwing (113th in EPA per pass) than running (128th). NC State's pass defense ranks 130th. NC State is better throwing (12th in EPA per pass) than running (103rd). California's pass defense ranks 72nd, so that's a mismatch. On third down, NC State has the edge: its offense ranks 3rd in EPA per third-down play, and the defense it faces ranks 97th.
| California | NC State | |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | −0.02 (125th) | +0.22 (31st) |
| EPA per pass | +0.08 (113th) | +0.44 (12th) |
| EPA per rush | −0.06 (128th) | +0.02 (103rd) |
| EPA per 3rd-down play | +0.44 (76th) | +0.88 (3rd) |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.18 (112th) | +0.23 (120th) |
| EPA per pass allowed | +0.18 (72nd) | +0.41 (130th) |
| EPA per rush allowed | +0.28 (133rd) | +0.12 (94th) |
| EPA per 3rd-down play allowed | +0.48 (97th) | +0.34 (51st) |
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
California is outscored by 8.2 a game, and NC State by 4.2. California's offense ranks 101st in scoring, and the NC State defense it faces ranks 105th in points allowed. NC State's offense ranks 46th against California's 119th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is NC State's offense against California's defense.
| California | NC State | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored | 23.4 (101st) | 32.3 (46th) |
| Points allowed | 31.6 (119th) | 28.1 (105th) |
Per game, FBS opponents only.
California has no clear edge here. Its best is explosive play rate, 128th, against a defense ranked 136th in explosive plays allowed. NC State's best matchup is its run game: its offense ranks 58th in yards per carry, and California's defense ranks 132nd in yards per carry allowed. That's a mismatch.
| California | NC State | |
|---|---|---|
| Pass yards / game | 295.0 (13th) | 261.8 (39th) |
| Rush yards / game | 93.0 (134th) | 168.5 (65th) |
| Yards per play | 5.20 (124th) | 6.06 (76th) |
| Yards per carry | 3.68 (133rd) | 5.32 (58th) |
| Yards per attempt | 6.18 (117th) | 6.98 (95th) |
| Completion % | 59.2% (88th) | 58.2% (93rd) |
| Success rate | 36.4% (130th) | 43.2% (76th) |
| Explosive play rate | 9.0% (128th) | 11.5% (87th) |
| 3rd down conversion | 34.1% (109th) | 45.6% (34th) |
| Sack rate (taken) | 3.3% (23rd) | 4.7% (45th) |
| INT rate (thrown) | 1.3% (29th) | 1.3% (30th) |
| SUPLEX | 45.1% (128th) | 54.2% (84th) |
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Neither defense ranks 25 spots ahead of the offense it faces in any of these, so expect both offenses to look like themselves.
| California | NC State | |
|---|---|---|
| Pass yards allowed / game | 215.0 (74th) | 226.2 (96th) |
| Rush yards allowed / game | 177.3 (104th) | 169.8 (96th) |
| Yards per play allowed | 7.20 (131st) | 7.05 (127th) |
| Yards per carry allowed | 6.11 (132nd) | 5.66 (116th) |
| Yards per attempt allowed | 9.01 (121st) | 9.11 (122nd) |
| Success rate allowed | 44.5% (95th) | 47.5% (120th) |
| Explosive plays allowed | 15.8% (134th) | 16.6% (136th) |
| 3rd downs allowed | 44.1% (108th) | 40.9% (89th) |
| Sack rate (generated) | 6.4% (64th) | 5.1% (93rd) |
| INT rate (generated) | 3.7% (26th) | 2.0% (82nd) |
| SUPLEX allowed | 56.5% (85th) | 66.3% (136th) |
What opponents managed against them.
Neither team has a real turnover edge: California is +0.1 a game and NC State −0.1. Fumble recoveries are mostly luck, and NC State's takeaways lean on them (0.7 of 1.1 a game).
| California | NC State | |
|---|---|---|
| Interceptions thrown / game | 0.63 (52nd) | 0.57 (40th) |
| Fumbles lost / game | 0.38 (42nd) | 0.71 (99th) |
| Giveaways / game | 1.00 (37th) | 1.29 (71st) |
| Interceptions / game | 0.88 (38th) | 0.43 (105th) |
| Fumbles recovered / game | 0.25 (113th) | 0.71 (22nd) |
| Takeaways / game | 1.13 (81st) | 1.14 (66th) |
| Turnover margin / game | +0.1 (63rd) | -0.1 (76th) |
Per game, from play-by-play.
NC State has the more talented roster (32nd in the 247Sports talent composite; California is 33rd). NC State also plays further above its talent: −6.8 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to California's −13.8.
| California | NC State | |
|---|---|---|
| Talent composite | 751.9 (33rd) | 757.1 (32nd) |
| Blue-chip ratio | 21.9% (37th) | 24.7% (34th) |
| Players on roster | 103 (119th) | 125 (8th) |
| Rated by 247Sports | 96 (6th) | 89 (29th) |
| 5-star players | 0 (37th) | 0 (37th) |
| 4-star players | 21 (32nd) | 22 (30th) |
| 3-star players | 68 (37th) | 67 (45th) |
| Below 3-star | 7 (14th) | 0 (113th) |
| 2026 transfers in | 32 (24th) | 20 (76th) |
| Transfer share | 33.3% (50th) | 22.5% (97th) |
| SP+ vs. talent | -13.8 (131st) | -6.8 (109th) |
| Returning production | 58.3% (43rd) | 59.9% (41st) |
| Returning passing production | 88.7% (47th) | 93.1% (39th) |
| Returning rushing production | 0.0% (113th) | 101.5% (16th) |
| Returning receiving production | 43.0% (60th) | 26.0% (91st) |
| 2026 recruiting class (national rank) | 56 (56th) | 49 (49th) |
| Recruiting rank, last four classes | 64.8 (67th) | 38.2 (32nd) |
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
NC State's roster is valued at $19.2M, California's at $19.1M. NC State also plays better per dollar: −5.2 points of SP+ above what its payroll predicts, to −12.4 for California.
| California | NC State | |
|---|---|---|
| Roster value | $19.1M (60th) | $19.2M (58th) |
| Roster cost per win | $6.4M (48th) | $6.4M (50th) |
| Projected wins per $1M | 0.17 (64th) | 0.30 (29th) |
| SP+ vs. payroll | -12.4 (68th) | -5.2 (53rd) |
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
California is −1.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (−2.1). NC State is −0.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (−1.0). California's record is running 0.9 wins ahead of its play on luck alone, so it's not as good as the record says.
| California | NC State | |
|---|---|---|
| BAWA (total) | -1.0 (109th) | -0.5 (89th) |
| Schedule BAWA | -0.6 (117th) | +0.2 (80th) |
| Roster BAWA | +0.9 (20th) | +0.8 (24th) |
| Coach BAWA | -2.1 (135th) | -1.0 (109th) |
| Luck BAWA | +0.9 (19th) | -0.5 (100th) |
Big Al Wins Added: where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Big Al picks NC State, 78% to win. All three ratings favor the same team. NC State's best matchup is its run game, 58th in yards per carry, against California's run defense at 132nd.
Sat, Oct 31, 12:00 PM ET at Carter-Finley Stadium, on ACC Network.
DraftKings has NC State −7, total 56.5. Big Al picks winners, not bets.
NC State leads 1–0. Last meeting: NC State won 24–23 in 2024.
California's is Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (1,612 passing yards this season); NC State's is CJ Bailey (1,512 passing yards this season).
Numbers through the games of Oct 24, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
California and NC State: team pages with every stat and national rank. Compare any two teams.