College football, 2026 season
Data-driven picks for every FBS game + interactive charts you can customize to support any narrative (except Big 12 supremacy).
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Everything on this site starts with someone else's data, and we credit all of it. The projections, picks, rankings and tiers are our own math on top.
| Source | What we use | How often |
|---|---|---|
| CollegeFootballData.com, via the public cfbfastR files | Schedules, final scores, pregame Elo, play-by-play and box score stats, rosters | Usually posted Sunday or Monday morning after games |
| DraftKings lines (via The Odds API and CollegeFootballData.com) | The line and total on each game, and where each opened | Every morning, and before kickoffs Thursday to Saturday |
| Team logos and colors (ESPN's, via CollegeFootballData.com) | The logos on charts, game cards and team pages. They belong to the schools and are used only to identify the teams. | Preseason |
| SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update) | Overall, offense, defense and special teams ratings | Weekly |
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| AP Top 25 (via NCAA.com) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sunday afternoons |
| AFCA Coaches Poll (via Yahoo Sports, CBS Sports, SI) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sundays |
| 247Sports | Team talent composite, star counts, 2026 transfer portal rankings | Preseason |
| The NIL Standard | Estimated NIL roster values | Preseason |
| us-atlas (U.S. Census Bureau boundaries) | State shapes for the map | Once |
Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of the 138 FBS teams.
About
Every stat and term on the site, explained like you're five. Or like you're a grown adult who never asked what EPA means and is now too embarrassed to.
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About
Last updated October 26, 2026.
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Big Al's CFB Lab publishes college football statistics, projections and opinions. Everything here is for information and entertainment. Projections and picks are estimates from public data and can be wrong, sometimes badly.
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Last updated October 26, 2026.
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Projected scores come from SP+ offense, defense and special teams, plus 2.5 points for the home team. Cards also show DraftKings' line and total as facts: we pick winners, not bets. Open Details for the full read, or Head to head for every stat.
Final scores against what we said before kickoff. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favored, unless he made the call himself on a toss-up or one of the week's biggest games. Ranked means in that week's AP poll. Open a game for the full preview as it stood going into the week.
Straight-up picks: did the pick win? Big Al's pick is the team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favor. Big Al and SP+ picks start in Week 8; Elo picks go back to Week 1.
Each column is that week's ranking. Arrows compare the latest poll to the week before. NR means not ranked.
Rankings come from cfbtrack.com. Week 1 is the preseason poll; each later week is the poll released before that week's games.
SP+ vs. payroll is the average, across a conference's teams with an NIL valuation (positive means its teams play better than their payrolls predict). Blue-chip ratio is the share of all its rostered players who were 4- or 5-star recruits.
Ranks are national, out of 138 FBS teams. A top-10 team also counts toward the top 25 and top 40, and everyone outside the last cutoff counts as weak. Open a conference to see its teams.
Seeds 1–4 get first-round byes. Seeds 5–8 host the first round.
The columns on the right show where each team would be seeded under the other ratings. A dash means out.
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor. On the toss-ups and the biggest games, Big Al makes the call himself and says why.
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
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Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Bowling Green at Western Michigan
Week 9, Sat, Oct 31, 12:00 PM ET, Waldo Stadium.
Big Al's pick: Western Michigan, 86% to win.
| Kickoff | Sat, Oct 31, 12:00 PM ET |
|---|---|
| TV | CBSSN |
| Where | Waldo Stadium |
| Weather | 58°, wind 7 mph |
| Line | Western Michigan −12.5, total 44.5 |
| Line movement | Opened Western Michigan −15.5; moved 3 points toward Bowling Green. Total opened 43.5, up 1. |
| Series | Bowling Green leads 29–19–2 |
| Last meeting | Bowling Green 31–13 in 2024 |
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Western Michigan by 18.0 | 90% | 46 |
| PRIME | Western Michigan by 12.5 | 81% | |
| Elo | Western Michigan | 85% | |
| The line | Western Michigan −12.5, opened −15.5 | 44.5, opened 43.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Wed, Oct 28, 2:21 PM ET.
Big Al's pick: Western Michigan. 86% to win
All three ratings favor Western Michigan, by 12.5 to 18.0 points, and it isn't close. Western Michigan's best matchup is its run game, 34th in EPA per rush, against Bowling Green's run defense at 126th. Bowling Green's way back in is its pass rush, 45th in sack rate, against Western Michigan's pass protection at 92nd.
| SP+ offense | SP+ defense | |
|---|---|---|
| Bowling Green | 15.4 (129th) | 33.5 (118th) |
| Western Michigan | 22.8 (101st) | 25.8 (65th) |
| SUPLEX | SUPLEX allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Bowling Green | 48.0% (124th) | 66.7% (137th) |
| Western Michigan | 57.1% (60th) | 53.3% (65th) |
| Success rate | Explosive play rate | |
|---|---|---|
| Bowling Green | 38.7% (117th) | 9.2% (126th) |
| Western Michigan | 45.3% (55th) | 12.0% (76th) |
| Success rate allowed | Explosive plays allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Bowling Green | 49.5% (133rd) | 13.0% (102nd) |
| Western Michigan | 42.5% (75th) | 9.9% (35th) |
| Yards per carry | Yards per attempt | |
|---|---|---|
| Bowling Green | 3.72 (132nd) | 6.84 (99th) |
| Western Michigan | 5.03 (76th) | 8.66 (32nd) |
| 3rd down conversion | 3rd downs allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Bowling Green | 38.2% (84th) | 41.3% (92nd) |
| Western Michigan | 44.7% (43rd) | 37.5% (58th) |
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Bowling Green and Western Michigan are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 24, 2026.
| Player | Passing success rate (per dropback) | Passing yards |
|---|---|---|
| Jay Kastantin, Bowling Green | 44.7% (58th) | 1,462 (64th) |
| Broc Lowry, Western Michigan | 40.1% (115th) | 1,283 (85th) |
| Player | Yards per carry | Rushing success rate |
|---|---|---|
| Austyn Dendy, Bowling Green | 3.5 (326th) | 38.6% (260th) |
| Jalen Buckley, Western Michigan | 5.3 (131st) | 43.3% (174th) |
| Player | Explosive catches (16+ yards) | Receiving yards |
|---|---|---|
| Winn Sharp, Bowling Green | 6 (199th) | 325 (163rd) |
| Jeremiah Scoby, Bowling Green | 10 (75th) | 291 (196th) |
| Aveion Chenault, Western Michigan | 7 (189th) | 431 (79th) |
| Adam Parks, Western Michigan | 1 (642nd) | 98 (588th) |
| Player | Sacks | INTs | Fumble recoveries | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eriq George, Bowling Green | 3 | 0 | 2 | 16th |
| Dillon Moore, Western Michigan | 2 | 2 | 0 | 95th |
| Cashmire Lewis, Bowling Green | 3 | 0 | 0 | 122nd |
| Myles Bradley, Bowling Green | 2 | 0 | 1 | 123rd |
| Austin Alexander, Western Michigan | 2 | 0 | 1 | 257th |
| KJ Burley, Western Michigan | 1 | 0 | 1 | 585th |
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 24, 2026.
On a neutral field, SP+ has Western Michigan 15.5 points better (86th to 130th). PRIME also has Western Michigan ahead, by 10.0. Elo, which only sees results, also has Western Michigan ahead (71st to 119th).
| Bowling Green | Western Michigan | |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ overall | -18.2 (130th) | -2.7 (86th) |
| SP+ offense | 15.4 (129th) | 22.8 (101st) |
| SP+ defense | 33.5 (118th) | 25.8 (65th) |
| SP+ special teams | -0.1 (80th) | 0.3 (28th) |
| PRIME net | -13.6 (124th) | -3.6 (86th) |
| PRIME offense | -4.65 (101st) | -2.51 (87th) |
| PRIME defense | -7.97 (128th) | -2.26 (88th) |
| PRIME SOS | -6.7 (107th) | -4.8 (92nd) |
| PRIME SOR | -3.3 (131st) | 0.1 (66th) |
| Elo | 1231 (119th) | 1480 (71st) |
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Bowling Green's offense ranks 109th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Western Michigan defense it faces ranks 74th in EPA per play allowed. Western Michigan's offense ranks 69th against Bowling Green's 114th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Western Michigan's offense against Bowling Green's defense. The biggest edge on the board is Western Michigan's big plays: 25th in adjusted explosiveness, against Bowling Green's 128th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch.
| Bowling Green | Western Michigan | |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play (adjusted) | +0.05 (109th) | +0.10 (69th) |
| EPA per pass (adjusted) | +0.16 (94th) | +0.13 (109th) |
| EPA per rush (adjusted) | +0.03 (98th) | +0.11 (34th) |
| Success rate (adjusted) | 40.1% (88th) | 41.3% (74th) |
| Success rate, standard downs (adjusted) | 47.0% (60th) | 46.6% (73rd) |
| Success rate, passing downs (adjusted) | 27.6% (118th) | 30.4% (72nd) |
| Explosiveness (adjusted) | 0.91 (118th) | 0.96 (25th) |
| Line yards per carry (adjusted) | 2.85 (101st) | 3.00 (51st) |
| Open-field yards per carry (adjusted) | 0.88 (131st) | 1.10 (75th) |
| EPA per play allowed (adjusted) | +0.17 (114th) | +0.11 (74th) |
| EPA per pass allowed (adjusted) | +0.22 (88th) | +0.18 (64th) |
| EPA per rush allowed (adjusted) | +0.15 (126th) | +0.06 (60th) |
| Success rate allowed (adjusted) | 48.1% (133rd) | 45.2% (110th) |
| Explosiveness allowed (adjusted) | 0.98 (128th) | 0.90 (12th) |
| Line yards allowed per carry (adjusted) | 3.22 (131st) | 3.06 (99th) |
| Open-field yards allowed per carry (adjusted) | 1.50 (134th) | 0.76 (2nd) |
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Bowling Green is better throwing (64th in EPA per pass) than running (133rd). Western Michigan's pass defense ranks 63rd. Western Michigan is better running (49th in EPA per rush) than throwing (93rd). Bowling Green's run defense ranks 117th, so that's a mismatch.
| Bowling Green | Western Michigan | |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.01 (121st) | +0.13 (71st) |
| EPA per pass | +0.23 (64th) | +0.14 (93rd) |
| EPA per rush | −0.13 (133rd) | +0.14 (49th) |
| EPA per 3rd-down play | +0.25 (116th) | +0.44 (76th) |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.16 (102nd) | +0.10 (73rd) |
| EPA per pass allowed | +0.23 (88th) | +0.15 (63rd) |
| EPA per rush allowed | +0.17 (117th) | +0.04 (61st) |
| EPA per 3rd-down play allowed | +0.32 (47th) | +0.41 (75th) |
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Bowling Green is outscored by 11.0 a game, and Western Michigan by 6.2. Bowling Green's offense ranks 131st in scoring, and the Western Michigan defense it faces ranks 35th in points allowed. Western Michigan's offense ranks 83rd against Bowling Green's 109th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Western Michigan's offense against Bowling Green's defense.
| Bowling Green | Western Michigan | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored | 18.8 (131st) | 26.6 (83rd) |
| Points allowed | 29.8 (109th) | 20.4 (35th) |
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Bowling Green has no clear edge here. Its best is 3rd down conversion rate, 84th, against a defense ranked 58th in 3rd down conversions allowed. Western Michigan's best matchup is staying on schedule: its offense ranks 55th in success rate, and Bowling Green's defense ranks 133rd in success rate allowed. That's a mismatch.
| Bowling Green | Western Michigan | |
|---|---|---|
| Pass yards / game | 185.5 (112th) | 167.8 (124th) |
| Rush yards / game | 112.6 (129th) | 173.6 (58th) |
| Yards per play | 5.07 (128th) | 6.18 (69th) |
| Yards per carry | 3.72 (132nd) | 5.03 (76th) |
| Yards per attempt | 6.84 (99th) | 8.66 (32nd) |
| Completion % | 61.8% (79th) | 75.5% (10th) |
| Success rate | 38.7% (117th) | 45.3% (55th) |
| Explosive play rate | 9.2% (126th) | 12.0% (76th) |
| 3rd down conversion | 38.2% (84th) | 44.7% (43rd) |
| Sack rate (taken) | 4.8% (53rd) | 6.6% (92nd) |
| INT rate (thrown) | 2.8% (90th) | 1.9% (48th) |
| SUPLEX | 48.0% (124th) | 57.1% (60th) |
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Bowling Green's defense is best placed to get home: it ranks 45th in sack rate, and Western Michigan's offense is middle of the pack at avoiding sacks (92nd). Western Michigan's defense is best placed to limit big plays: it ranks 35th in explosive plays allowed, and Bowling Green's offense is bottom-20 in explosive play rate (126th). That's a mismatch.
| Bowling Green | Western Michigan | |
|---|---|---|
| Pass yards allowed / game | 162.6 (11th) | 219.6 (87th) |
| Rush yards allowed / game | 222.0 (133rd) | 162.6 (90th) |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.99 (124th) | 5.31 (36th) |
| Yards per carry allowed | 6.53 (135th) | 4.46 (45th) |
| Yards per attempt allowed | 8.34 (104th) | 6.63 (52nd) |
| Success rate allowed | 49.5% (133rd) | 42.5% (75th) |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.0% (102nd) | 9.9% (35th) |
| 3rd downs allowed | 41.3% (92nd) | 37.5% (58th) |
| Sack rate (generated) | 7.1% (45th) | 6.7% (57th) |
| INT rate (generated) | 1.3% (115th) | 1.5% (107th) |
| SUPLEX allowed | 66.7% (137th) | 53.3% (65th) |
What opponents managed against them.
Western Michigan is +0.4 in turnover margin a game and Bowling Green is −0.3. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 3-point edge for Western Michigan. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it. Fumble recoveries are mostly luck, and Bowling Green's takeaways lean on them (0.8 of 1.0 a game).
| Bowling Green | Western Michigan | |
|---|---|---|
| Interceptions thrown / game | 0.75 (75th) | 0.38 (22nd) |
| Fumbles lost / game | 0.50 (69th) | 0.38 (42nd) |
| Giveaways / game | 1.25 (64th) | 0.75 (21st) |
| Interceptions / game | 0.25 (133rd) | 0.50 (99th) |
| Fumbles recovered / game | 0.75 (15th) | 0.63 (40th) |
| Takeaways / game | 1.00 (88th) | 1.13 (81st) |
| Turnover margin / game | -0.3 (85th) | +0.4 (42nd) |
Per game, from play-by-play.
Western Michigan has the more talented roster (108th in the 247Sports talent composite; Bowling Green is 111th). Western Michigan also plays further above its talent: +3.0 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Bowling Green's −12.3.
| Bowling Green | Western Michigan | |
|---|---|---|
| Talent composite | 568.3 (111th) | 572.2 (108th) |
| Blue-chip ratio | 3.0% (110th) | 4.2% (98th) |
| Players on roster | 106 (99th) | 104 (112th) |
| Rated by 247Sports | 67 (106th) | 71 (93rd) |
| 5-star players | 0 (37th) | 0 (37th) |
| 4-star players | 2 (106th) | 3 (94th) |
| 3-star players | 61 (66th) | 59 (82nd) |
| Below 3-star | 4 (38th) | 9 (6th) |
| 2026 transfers in | 18 (97th) | 21 (67th) |
| Transfer share | 26.9% (80th) | 29.6% (64th) |
| SP+ vs. talent | -12.3 (128th) | +3.0 (50th) |
| Returning production | -6.2% (135th) | 99.7% (1st) |
| Returning passing production | 940.0% (1st) | 100.0% (11th) |
| Returning rushing production | 0.0% (113th) | 100.0% (19th) |
| Returning receiving production | 2.5% (130th) | 100.0% (1st) |
| 2026 recruiting class (national rank) | 75 (75th) | 112 (112th) |
| Recruiting rank, last four classes | 97.0 (98th) | 98.2 (100th) |
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Bowling Green is −2.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (−1.6). Western Michigan is +1.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is schedule (+1.2). Bowling Green's record is 1.0 wins worse than its play on bad luck, so it's better than the record says.
| Bowling Green | Western Michigan | |
|---|---|---|
| BAWA (total) | -2.0 (125th) | +1.0 (50th) |
| Schedule BAWA | +1.4 (23rd) | +1.2 (35th) |
| Roster BAWA | -0.8 (120th) | -0.4 (98th) |
| Coach BAWA | -1.6 (126th) | -0.0 (66th) |
| Luck BAWA | -1.0 (121st) | +0.2 (55th) |
Big Al Wins Added: where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Big Al picks Western Michigan, 86% to win. All three ratings favor the same team. Western Michigan's best matchup is its run game, 34th in EPA per rush, against Bowling Green's run defense at 126th.
Sat, Oct 31, 12:00 PM ET at Waldo Stadium, on CBSSN.
DraftKings has Western Michigan −12.5, total 44.5. Big Al picks winners, not bets.
Bowling Green leads 29–19–2. Last meeting: Bowling Green won 31–13 in 2024.
Bowling Green's is Jay Kastantin (1,462 passing yards this season); Western Michigan's is Broc Lowry (1,283 passing yards this season).
Western Michigan: Adam Parks (TE) hasn't played since Week 6.
Numbers through the games of Oct 24, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Bowling Green and Western Michigan: team pages with every stat and national rank. Compare any two teams.