College football, 2026 season
Data-driven picks for every FBS game + interactive charts you can customize to support any narrative (except Big 12 supremacy).
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About
Everything on this site starts with someone else's data, and we credit all of it. The projections, picks, rankings and tiers are our own math on top.
| Source | What we use | How often |
|---|---|---|
| CollegeFootballData.com, via the public cfbfastR files | Schedules, final scores, pregame Elo, play-by-play and box score stats, rosters | Usually posted Sunday or Monday morning after games |
| DraftKings lines (via The Odds API and CollegeFootballData.com) | The line and total on each game, and where each opened | Every morning, and before kickoffs Thursday to Saturday |
| Team logos and colors (ESPN's, via CollegeFootballData.com) | The logos on charts, game cards and team pages. They belong to the schools and are used only to identify the teams. | Preseason |
| SP+ by Bill Connelly (CFB Update) | Overall, offense, defense and special teams ratings | Weekly |
| PRIME (primecfb.com) | Net, offense, defense and special teams ratings, strength of schedule, strength of record | Weekly |
| AP Top 25 (via NCAA.com) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sunday afternoons |
| AFCA Coaches Poll (via Yahoo Sports, CBS Sports, SI) | Rankings and points, including others receiving votes | Sundays |
| 247Sports | Team talent composite, star counts, 2026 transfer portal rankings | Preseason |
| The NIL Standard | Estimated NIL roster values | Preseason |
| us-atlas (U.S. Census Bureau boundaries) | State shapes for the map | Once |
Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of the 138 FBS teams.
About
Every stat and term on the site, explained like you're five. Or like you're a grown adult who never asked what EPA means and is now too embarrassed to.
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What the numbers on team pages, charts and head to head mean.
How Big Al's picks, tiers and projections work. The full method is on Sources and methods.
Who's who and how the 12-team field works.
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For where the numbers come from and the exact math, see Sources and methods. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
About
Last updated October 26, 2026.
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Big Al's CFB Lab publishes college football statistics, projections and opinions. Everything here is for information and entertainment. Projections and picks are estimates from public data and can be wrong, sometimes badly.
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Last updated October 26, 2026.
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Projected scores come from SP+ offense, defense and special teams, plus 2.5 points for the home team. Cards also show DraftKings' line and total as facts: we pick winners, not bets. Open Details for the full read, or Head to head for every stat.
Final scores against what we said before kickoff. Big Al's pick is the team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favored, unless he made the call himself on a toss-up or one of the week's biggest games. Ranked means in that week's AP poll. Open a game for the full preview as it stood going into the week.
Straight-up picks: did the pick win? Big Al's pick is the team at least two of SP+, PRIME and Elo favor. Big Al and SP+ picks start in Week 8; Elo picks go back to Week 1.
Each column is that week's ranking. Arrows compare the latest poll to the week before. NR means not ranked.
Rankings come from cfbtrack.com. Week 1 is the preseason poll; each later week is the poll released before that week's games.
SP+ vs. payroll is the average, across a conference's teams with an NIL valuation (positive means its teams play better than their payrolls predict). Blue-chip ratio is the share of all its rostered players who were 4- or 5-star recruits.
Ranks are national, out of 138 FBS teams. A top-10 team also counts toward the top 25 and top 40, and everyone outside the last cutoff counts as weak. Open a conference to see its teams.
Seeds 1–4 get first-round byes. Seeds 5–8 host the first round.
The columns on the right show where each team would be seeded under the other ratings. A dash means out.
How we picked it
Three ratings look at a team in three different ways. The numbers' pick is the team at least two of them favor. On the toss-ups and the biggest games, Big Al makes the call himself and says why.
Where the game is won
Each row puts one team's unit against the unit it faces, by national rank out of all FBS teams. An edge is a gap of 25 spots or more.
Injuries and availability
Statuses come from the conference availability reports and team news, as of the date shown. "Hasn't played" means a regular (the main passer, a quarter of the carries or 15% of the catches) with no pass, carry or catch in his team's last two games, from the play-by-play. That can be an injury, a benching or a suspension. Linemen and defenders don't show up in that check.
The teams in charts
The players in charts
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Ratings: SP+ via CFB Update; PRIME via primecfb.com. Box and play stats computed from CollegeFootballData.com play data (via the public cfbfastR files), FBS games only for scoring. Rushing yards here exclude sacks, so they run higher than official totals. Ranks are out of 138 FBS teams.
Week 9, Sat, Oct 31, 3:45 PM ET, Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium.
Big Al's pick: Wake Forest, 83% to win.
| Kickoff | Sat, Oct 31, 3:45 PM ET |
|---|---|
| TV | ESPN2 |
| Where | Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium |
| Weather | 66°, wind 7 mph |
| Line | Wake Forest −12.5, total 49.5 |
| Line movement | Opened Wake Forest −13.5; moved 1 point toward Virginia. |
| Series | Virginia leads 34–18 |
| Last meeting | Wake Forest 16–9 in 2025 |
| Margin | Win chance | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | Wake Forest by 8.9 | 74% | 52 |
| PRIME | Wake Forest by 21.1 | 93% | |
| Elo | Wake Forest | 80% | |
| The line | Wake Forest −12.5, opened −13.5 | 49.5 |
Margins include home field. SP+ is Bill Connelly's rating; Sources has PRIME and Elo. Line and total from DraftKings, as of Wed, Oct 28, 2:21 PM ET.
Big Al's pick: Wake Forest. 82% to win
All three ratings favor Wake Forest, by 8.9 to 21.1 points, and it isn't close. Wake Forest's best matchup is its big-play defense, 4th in explosive plays allowed, against Virginia's big-play offense at 94th. Virginia's way back in is its ball security, 20th in interceptions thrown per pass, against Wake Forest's takeaway defense at 135th.
| SP+ offense | SP+ defense | |
|---|---|---|
| Virginia | 27.0 (65th) | 21.5 (36th) |
| Wake Forest | 33.1 (29th) | 21.3 (35th) |
| SUPLEX | SUPLEX allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Virginia | 60.8% (32nd) | 51.0% (48th) |
| Wake Forest | 70.6% (3rd) | 44.1% (18th) |
| Success rate | Explosive play rate | |
|---|---|---|
| Virginia | 45.6% (48th) | 11.2% (94th) |
| Wake Forest | 54.0% (1st) | 17.2% (4th) |
| Success rate allowed | Explosive plays allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Virginia | 37.0% (31st) | 10.1% (43rd) |
| Wake Forest | 39.4% (52nd) | 6.8% (4th) |
| Yards per carry | Yards per attempt | |
|---|---|---|
| Virginia | 4.83 (91st) | 8.68 (31st) |
| Wake Forest | 5.03 (77th) | 11.72 (1st) |
| 3rd down conversion | 3rd downs allowed | |
|---|---|---|
| Virginia | 35.0% (102nd) | 30.2% (16th) |
| Wake Forest | 54.4% (5th) | 39.8% (80th) |
Each chart puts all 138 FBS teams on two stats; Virginia and Wake Forest are lit. Dashed lines are the FBS averages, and up and right is better. Ranks in parentheses. Games through Oct 24, 2026.
| Player | Passing success rate (per dropback) | Passing yards |
|---|---|---|
| Beau Pribula, Virginia | 42.5% (86th) | 1,381 (75th) |
| Giovanni Lopez, Wake Forest | 49.3% (25th) | 1,965 (17th) |
| Player | Yards per carry | Rushing success rate |
|---|---|---|
| Jekail Middlebrook, Virginia | 4.7 (207th) | 50.0% (69th) |
| Ty Clark III, Wake Forest | 4.6 (224th) | 39.7% (244th) |
| Player | Explosive catches (16+ yards) | Receiving yards |
|---|---|---|
| Dashawn Martin, Virginia | 4 (411th) | 253 (265th) |
| Kameron Courtney, Virginia | 5 (320th) | 204 (353rd) |
| Carlos Hernandez, Wake Forest | 19 (7th) | 726 (10th) |
| Kameran Shanks, Wake Forest | 6 (250th) | 241 (284th) |
| Player | Sacks | INTs | Fumble recoveries | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandyn Hillman, Virginia | 0 | 3 | 0 | 246th |
| Matthew Fobbs-White, Virginia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 247th |
| Gabe Kirschke, Wake Forest | 3 | 0 | 0 | 250th |
| Langston Hardy, Wake Forest | 3 | 0 | 0 | 251st |
| Kamren Robinson, Virginia | 1 | 1 | 0 | 571st |
| Braylon Johnson, Wake Forest | 1 | 0 | 1 | 574th |
The scatter charts show the top 40 FBS players at the position by both stats combined, plus the players lit here. Dashed lines are the averages; up and right is better. Ranks are among every FBS player at the position with enough snaps. Takeaways are interceptions plus fumble recoveries. Games through Oct 24, 2026.
On a neutral field, SP+ has Wake Forest 6.4 points better (25th to 53rd). PRIME also has Wake Forest ahead, by 18.6. Elo, which only sees results, also has Wake Forest ahead (20th to 54th).
| Virginia | Wake Forest | |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ overall | 5.8 (53rd) | 12.2 (25th) |
| SP+ offense | 27.0 (65th) | 33.1 (29th) |
| SP+ defense | 21.5 (36th) | 21.3 (35th) |
| SP+ special teams | 0.3 (28th) | 0.3 (28th) |
| PRIME net | -0.3 (72nd) | 18.3 (10th) |
| PRIME offense | -2.48 (85th) | 12.08 (5th) |
| PRIME defense | 2.18 (52nd) | 5.83 (24th) |
| PRIME SOS | -2.3 (67th) | -0.2 (46th) |
| PRIME SOR | -0.4 (80th) | 2.5 (13th) |
| Elo | 1581 (54th) | 1766 (20th) |
Opponent-adjusted power ratings. These drive the projection.
Virginia's offense ranks 95th in adjusted EPA per play, and the Wake Forest defense it faces ranks 30th in EPA per play allowed. Wake Forest's offense ranks 12th against Virginia's 60th-ranked defense. The matchup that decides it is Wake Forest's offense against Virginia's defense. The biggest edge on the board is Wake Forest's run game: 21st in adjusted EPA per rush, against Virginia's 84th-ranked defense. That's a mismatch. Adjust for opponents and Virginia's offense falls from 50th to 95th in EPA per play: a lot of that came against soft defenses.
| Virginia | Wake Forest | |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play (adjusted) | +0.06 (95th) | +0.22 (12th) |
| EPA per pass (adjusted) | +0.14 (104th) | +0.31 (12th) |
| EPA per rush (adjusted) | +0.06 (67th) | +0.13 (21st) |
| Success rate (adjusted) | 38.7% (109th) | 45.5% (29th) |
| Success rate, standard downs (adjusted) | 46.5% (74th) | 49.1% (36th) |
| Success rate, passing downs (adjusted) | 25.9% (132nd) | 35.2% (8th) |
| Explosiveness (adjusted) | 0.93 (75th) | 0.95 (46th) |
| Line yards per carry (adjusted) | 3.07 (36th) | 2.99 (55th) |
| Open-field yards per carry (adjusted) | 0.86 (135th) | 1.05 (93rd) |
| EPA per play allowed (adjusted) | +0.09 (60th) | +0.04 (30th) |
| EPA per pass allowed (adjusted) | +0.18 (61st) | +0.11 (22nd) |
| EPA per rush allowed (adjusted) | +0.08 (84th) | +0.03 (40th) |
| Success rate allowed (adjusted) | 39.9% (43rd) | 41.9% (71st) |
| Explosiveness allowed (adjusted) | 0.92 (36th) | 0.91 (19th) |
| Line yards allowed per carry (adjusted) | 3.02 (86th) | 2.82 (31st) |
| Open-field yards allowed per carry (adjusted) | 1.18 (86th) | 0.89 (11th) |
The same efficiency numbers, adjusted for the offenses and defenses each team has faced (CollegeFootballData.com). A good number against a soft schedule shrinks; one against a hard schedule grows.
Virginia is better running (27th in EPA per rush) than throwing (64th). Wake Forest's run defense ranks 29th, so that's strength on strength. Wake Forest is about as good throwing (8th in EPA per pass) as running (5th). On third down, Wake Forest has the edge: its offense ranks 14th in EPA per third-down play, and the defense it faces ranks 97th.
| Virginia | Wake Forest | |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.18 (50th) | +0.36 (3rd) |
| EPA per pass | +0.23 (64th) | +0.48 (8th) |
| EPA per rush | +0.19 (27th) | +0.26 (5th) |
| EPA per 3rd-down play | +0.27 (111th) | +0.72 (14th) |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.09 (70th) | +0.06 (52nd) |
| EPA per pass allowed | +0.19 (75th) | +0.15 (63rd) |
| EPA per rush allowed | +0.09 (83rd) | −0.04 (29th) |
| EPA per 3rd-down play allowed | +0.48 (97th) | +0.49 (102nd) |
Expected points added per play, from CollegeFootballData.com. EPA measures how much each play changes the points a team can expect from the drive. Zero is break-even; +0.20 is very good. Not adjusted for opponents.
Virginia outscores FBS opponents by 8.6 a game, and Wake Forest by 18.0. Virginia's offense ranks 73rd in scoring, and the Wake Forest defense it faces ranks 30th in points allowed. Wake Forest's offense ranks 14th against Virginia's 31st-ranked defense. Neither side of the ball has a clear edge.
| Virginia | Wake Forest | |
|---|---|---|
| Points scored | 28.2 (73rd) | 37.4 (14th) |
| Points allowed | 19.6 (31st) | 19.4 (30th) |
Per game, FBS opponents only.
Virginia has no clear edge here. Its best is success rate, 48th, against a defense ranked 52nd in success rate allowed. Wake Forest's best matchup is early downs: its offense ranks 3rd in SUPLEX, and Virginia's defense ranks 48th in SUPLEX allowed.
| Virginia | Wake Forest | |
|---|---|---|
| Pass yards / game | 199.6 (101st) | 291.4 (15th) |
| Rush yards / game | 179.9 (52nd) | 156.6 (84th) |
| Yards per play | 5.99 (82nd) | 7.80 (4th) |
| Yards per carry | 4.83 (91st) | 5.03 (77th) |
| Yards per attempt | 8.68 (31st) | 11.72 (1st) |
| Completion % | 72.3% (20th) | 83.3% (2nd) |
| Success rate | 45.6% (48th) | 54.0% (1st) |
| Explosive play rate | 11.2% (94th) | 17.2% (4th) |
| 3rd down conversion | 35.0% (102nd) | 54.4% (5th) |
| Sack rate (taken) | 12.0% (131st) | 5.4% (71st) |
| INT rate (thrown) | 1.1% (20th) | 0.6% (8th) |
| SUPLEX | 60.8% (32nd) | 70.6% (3rd) |
Per game and per play, from play-by-play.
Wake Forest's defense is best placed to limit big plays: it ranks 4th in explosive plays allowed, and Virginia's offense is middle of the pack in explosive play rate (94th). That's a mismatch.
| Virginia | Wake Forest | |
|---|---|---|
| Pass yards allowed / game | 189.3 (33rd) | 235.1 (105th) |
| Rush yards allowed / game | 150.4 (73rd) | 112.1 (15th) |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.29 (34th) | 4.62 (6th) |
| Yards per carry allowed | 4.87 (75th) | 3.89 (13th) |
| Yards per attempt allowed | 6.01 (24th) | 5.34 (7th) |
| Success rate allowed | 37.0% (31st) | 39.4% (52nd) |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.1% (43rd) | 6.8% (4th) |
| 3rd downs allowed | 30.2% (16th) | 39.8% (80th) |
| Sack rate (generated) | 5.6% (79th) | 4.9% (98th) |
| INT rate (generated) | 3.2% (43rd) | 0.7% (135th) |
| SUPLEX allowed | 51.0% (48th) | 44.1% (18th) |
What opponents managed against them.
Virginia is +0.5 in turnover margin a game and Wake Forest is +0.1. At about five points a turnover, that's roughly a 2-point edge for Virginia. Turnover margin rarely holds from one month to the next, so don't count on it.
| Virginia | Wake Forest | |
|---|---|---|
| Interceptions thrown / game | 0.25 (11th) | 0.14 (5th) |
| Fumbles lost / game | 0.38 (42nd) | 0.29 (20th) |
| Giveaways / game | 0.63 (15th) | 0.43 (3rd) |
| Interceptions / game | 1.00 (22nd) | 0.29 (119th) |
| Fumbles recovered / game | 0.13 (129th) | 0.29 (94th) |
| Takeaways / game | 1.13 (81st) | 0.57 (126th) |
| Turnover margin / game | +0.5 (30th) | +0.1 (61st) |
Per game, from play-by-play.
Virginia has the more talented roster (53rd in the 247Sports talent composite; Wake Forest is 63rd). But Wake Forest plays further above its talent: +11.1 points of SP+ beyond what its roster predicts, to Virginia's +3.5.
| Virginia | Wake Forest | |
|---|---|---|
| Talent composite | 699.9 (53rd) | 680.9 (63rd) |
| Blue-chip ratio | 12.2% (58th) | 9.0% (73rd) |
| Players on roster | 117 (29th) | 103 (119th) |
| Rated by 247Sports | 90 (23rd) | 89 (29th) |
| 5-star players | 0 (37th) | 0 (37th) |
| 4-star players | 11 (53rd) | 8 (62nd) |
| 3-star players | 76 (11th) | 78 (9th) |
| Below 3-star | 3 (53rd) | 3 (53rd) |
| 2026 transfers in | 31 (30th) | 24 (53rd) |
| Transfer share | 34.4% (47th) | 27.0% (79th) |
| SP+ vs. talent | +3.5 (48th) | +11.1 (16th) |
| Returning production | 9.5% (119th) | 14.2% (111th) |
| Returning passing production | 1.1% (108th) | 22.9% (70th) |
| Returning rushing production | 21.0% (92nd) | 4.6% (108th) |
| Returning receiving production | 8.7% (127th) | 13.1% (117th) |
| 2026 recruiting class (national rank) | 111 (111th) | 39 (39th) |
| Recruiting rank, last four classes | 80.2 (77th) | 51.8 (53rd) |
247Sports team talent composite and 2026 transfer portal class. Star counts cover only the players 247Sports rates, not walk-ons, so they add up to less than the full roster. Ranks are out of all 138 FBS teams.
Virginia's roster is valued at $21.0M, Wake Forest's at $18.7M. Dollar for dollar, Wake Forest plays better: +8.4 points of SP+ above what its payroll predicts, to −0.4 for Virginia.
| Virginia | Wake Forest | |
|---|---|---|
| Roster value | $21.0M (44th) | $18.7M (62nd) |
| Roster cost per win | $5.2M (31st) | $3.1M (3rd) |
| Projected wins per $1M | 0.35 (17th) | 0.46 (3rd) |
| SP+ vs. payroll | -0.4 (38th) | +8.4 (11th) |
NIL roster value from The NIL Standard (power-conference teams plus Boise State and Oregon State). Ranks are out of 70 teams with a valuation.
Virginia is 0.0 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is luck (−1.3). Wake Forest is +2.5 wins against a .500 team; the biggest piece is coaching (+1.4). Virginia's record is 1.3 wins worse than its play on bad luck, so it's better than the record says.
| Virginia | Wake Forest | |
|---|---|---|
| BAWA (total) | 0.0 (82nd) | +2.5 (8th) |
| Schedule BAWA | +0.5 (70th) | +0.1 (83rd) |
| Roster BAWA | +0.2 (57th) | +0.1 (65th) |
| Coach BAWA | +0.6 (40th) | +1.4 (14th) |
| Luck BAWA | -1.3 (130th) | +0.9 (17th) |
Big Al Wins Added: where the wins came from. Every team starts as a .500 team. Then each win (or loss) goes to the schedule, the roster, the coaching or luck, and the four add up to the real record. Wins above or below a .500 team.
Big Al picks Wake Forest, 82% to win. All three ratings favor the same team. Wake Forest's best matchup is its big-play defense, 4th in explosive plays allowed, against Virginia's big-play offense at 94th.
Sat, Oct 31, 3:45 PM ET at Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium, on ESPN2.
DraftKings has Wake Forest −12.5, total 49.5. Big Al picks winners, not bets.
Virginia leads 34–18. Last meeting: Wake Forest won 16–9 in 2025.
Virginia's is Beau Pribula (1,381 passing yards this season); Wake Forest's is Giovanni Lopez (1,965 passing yards this season).
Numbers through the games of Oct 24, 2026. SP+ as of Oct 27, 2026. Updated every week.
Virginia and Wake Forest: team pages with every stat and national rank. Compare any two teams.